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D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    Why are people upset that CDC changes their suggestions over time as knowledge and conditions change?

    When the mask mandate was dropped, the cases were decreasing, vaccines were getting into people's arms at a rapid rate, the Delta variant hadn't taken over, and the vaccines seems to be extremely effective in both prevent both transmission and severe cases.

    Now 4 months later, we know more about the vaccines and variants. We now know the Delta variant is significantly more transmissible than the alpha variant. We know that a fairly sizeable part of the population will not get the vaccine regardless of what the science says. We also know that cases are rising rapidly in many parts of the country. We know that the vaccine is still extremely effective against Delta, but not as good as it was against Alpha.

    Changing recommendations now reflects the risk and knowledge of the current state. Compared to a month ago, number of new cases per day in Houston has increased by 10x and positivity rate 5x. Delta variant is multiple times more transmissible than alpha variant, and we know it's rampant in the US. The risk now when going to the bar or indoor gathering is easily 10x more risky than a month ago.

    Changing risk SHOULD bring changing recommendations. I want CDC to be science and data driven, not by politics or desire to not seen as 'wrong' or 'flip-flop'.
     
  2. txtony

    txtony Member

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    No, you should never change with new information. Or, you think Delta is the same as Alpha.
     
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  3. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    So do I.

    Unfortunately, millions of americans do not share this attitude. And millions are either too dumb or unwilling to understand and accept science or data.
     
  4. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    Imagine making decisions based on science and data as it evolves and changes due to the Delta variant.
     
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  5. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    At this point if you haven't gotten the vaccine its on you. Let's get rid of the masks.
     
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  6. txtony

    txtony Member

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    It's not about risks to the vaccinated but about vaccinated spreading it. The new info is there is much more breakthrough infection with Delta (it's not clear to what degree, but I read 10-20%) and when you are infected, you are likely to spread it. Remember that CDC went from originally not masking to masking when they have info on asymptomatic infection as a vector for spread. This isn't so different and is consistent. There were very few breakthroughs infection with the older variants and vaccinated people were effectively not a vector for spreading.

    The incentive for vaccination is to protect yourself. Older Republicans vaccinate because they know it's not the flu, not because of political identity.

    I doubt Trump winning the election would mean better vaccination. Likely worse. The Trump admin didn't have a great plan in place to vaccinate quickly. Trump has been beating the drum of 'it's just the flu' for so long that people believing that wouldn't care that an old person like him took the vaccine. Even he cannot control the fire he started among his loyalists. ps. he did go on the news recently and recommended people to take the vaccine. I doubt that will change anything. What will change the unvaccinated mind is rising covid hospitalization and death (or passport).
     
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Imagine Disclose TV being one of your news sources.

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/disclose-tv/

     
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  8. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    How dare scientists find new information!!!! What the hell is wrong with them?
     
    #7028 CCorn, Jul 27, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2021
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  9. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    The cool thing about science is that when new data is available and gone through testing they use it.
     
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  10. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Science needs to be more like religion. None of this adjusting your findings based on the data. NOPE! Foot down, fingers in your ears, LaLaLa I can’t hear you COVID!!
     
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  11. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  13. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  14. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    not sure she's the best vehicle for the message

     
  15. txtony

    txtony Member

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    That’s right Commodore. Once enough of us are vaccinated or infected, spread stop and masks are no longer needed.
     
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  16. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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  17. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    "Opinion: Vaccinated Americans are more likely to die from a lightning strike than covid. Don’t bring back restrictions":

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...rike-than-covid-dont-bring-back-restrictions/

    excerpt:

    The pandemic is worsening and the delta variant is so infectious, we are told, that we need to return to covid-19 restrictions — even for fully vaccinated Americans. Los Angeles has already reinstated indoor mask mandates, and on Tuesday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reversed its previous guidance and recommended that vaccinated people wear masks indoors in certain circumstances. Parents are bracing for a new push from teachers’ unions to delay school reopenings in the fall.

    This is absurd. While it is tragic that some unvaccinated Americans are suffering, for the vaccinated, the pandemic is over. The rise in covid-19 cases among the unvaccinated poses no serious threat to those who have been immunized.

    The data is clear: According to the CDC, as of July 19, a grand total of 4,072 vaccinated Americans had been hospitalized with symptomatic breakthrough infections, out of more than 161 million who have been fully vaccinated. That is a breakthrough hospitalization rate of less than 0.003 percent. Better still, of those hospitalized, only 849 have died of covid-19. That means the death rate from those breakthrough infections is 0.0005 percent.

    To put that in perspective, your chance of dying from a lightning strike is .0007 percent, and your chance of dying from a seasonal flu is 0.1 percent. If you’re vaccinated, you have a much greater chance of dying from a hornet, wasp or bee string, a dog attack, a car crash, drowning, sunstroke, or choking on food than you do of dying from covid-19.

    The vast majority of those who do become seriously ill from breakthrough infections are older or have underlying conditions. According to the Minnesota Department of Health, the median age of those hospitalized with breakthrough infections is 74. An Israeli study of patients hospitalized with breakthrough infections found that only 4 percent had no co-morbidities. The rest had preexisting illnesses such as cancer or congestive heart failure that predisposed them to severe covid-19.

    What this means is that for otherwise healthy vaccinated people — and those who have natural immunity from previous infection — the chance of dying of covid-19 is close to zero.

    The same is true for unvaccinated children. As Johns Hopkins University professor Marty Makary points out in the Wall Street Journal, CDC data show that of the more than 600,000 Americans who died with a covid diagnosis code in their record, just 335 were children under 18 — and the CDC has no idea whether they had a preexisting condition and whether their covid diagnosis was incidental or causal. A research team at Johns Hopkins led by Makary looked at 48,000 children under 18 diagnosed with covid-19, and found a mortality rate of zero among children without a preexisting medical condition, such as pediatric cancer. Indeed, there is no official government data to show whether any healthy children have died as a result of covid-19.

    The fact is children are at extremely low risk from covid-19. And this much is certain: Teachers who are vaccinated and otherwise healthy face no serious risk from their unvaccinated students. But with the surged caused by the delta variant expected to peak in late August or early September — right when schools are set to open — expect the teacher unions to use delta to demand that schools stay closed until young children are vaccinated.

    Sorry, but there is no justification whatsoever not to open schools, or to require that children wear masks or be vaccinated to return to the classroom. And there is no justification to mandate that vaccinated Americans wear masks, or to reimpose any restrictions on the everyday activities of citizens who have either natural or vaccinated immunity.

    more at the link
     
  18. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I’m not so sure that the argument for resuming restrictions is principally about protecting the vaccinated. I think it’s probably more about preventing spread, replications, and further mutations which can yield even more contagious and dangerous variants.
     
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  19. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    tl;dr It's hard being nerdy (claiming is a different matter). The payoff isn't immediate and more an investment.

    phys.org /news/2021-07-misplaced-science-fosters-pseudoscience.html
    Misplaced trust: When trust in science fosters pseudoscience
    Science X staff

    The COVID-19 pandemic and the politicization of health-prevention measures such as vaccination and mask-wearing have highlighted the need for people to accept and trust science.

    But trusting science isn't enough.

    A new study finds that people who trust science are more likely to believe and disseminate false claims containing scientific references than people who do not trust science. Reminding people of the value of critical evaluation reduces belief in false claims, but reminding them of the value of trusting science does not.

    "We conclude that trust in science, although desirable in many ways, makes people vulnerable to pseudoscience," the researchers write. "These findings have implications for science broadly and the application of psychological science to curbing misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic."

    "People are susceptible to being deceived by the trappings of science," said co-author Dolores Albarracín, the Alexandra Heyman Nash Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professor of the University of Pennsylvania. She said, for example, that COVID-19 vaccines have been the target of false claims that they contain pollutants or other dangerous ingredients. "It's deception but it's pretending to be scientific. So people who are taught to trust science and normally do trust science can be fooled as well."

    Albarracín, a social psychologist and director of the Science of Science Communication Division of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania, said, "What we need are people who also can be critical of information. A critical mindset can make you less gullible and make you less likely to believe in conspiracy theories."

    The study, conducted by Albarracín and colleagues when she was in her former position at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, was published recently in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.

    The experiments: Misinformation about a virus and GMOs


    For the study, researchers conducted four preregistered experiments with online participants. The researchers created two fictitious stories—one about a virus created as a bioweapon, mirroring claims about the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and the other about an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory about the effects of genetically modified organisms or GMOs on tumors.

    The invented stories contained references to either scientific concepts and scientists who claimed to have done research on the topic or descriptions from people identified as activists. Participants in each experiment, ranging from 382 to 605 people, were randomly assigned to read either the scientific or non-scientific versions of the stories.

    Findings

    What the researchers found was that among people who did not have trust in science, the presence of scientific content in a story did not have a significant effect. But people who did have higher levels of trust in science were more likely to believe the stories with scientific content and more likely to disseminate them.

    In the fourth experiment, participants were prompted to have either a 'trust in science' or a 'critical evaluation' mindset. Those primed to have a critical mindset were less likely to believe the stories, whether or not the stories used seemingly scientific references. "The critical mindset makes you less gullible, regardless of the information type," Albarracín said.

    "People need to understand how science operates and how science arrives at its conclusions," Albarracín added. "People can be taught what sources of information to trust and how to validate that information. It's not just a case of trusting science, but having the ability to be more critical and understand how to double-check what information is really about."

    The lead author, postdoctoral researcher Thomas C. O'Brien of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, added, "Although trust in science has important societal benefits, it is not a panacea that will protect people against misinformation. Spreaders of misinformation commonly reference science. Science communication cannot simply urge people to trust anything that references science, and instead should encourage people to learn about scientific methods and ways to critically engage with issues that involve scientific content."

    The researchers concluded that "although cynicism of science could have disastrous impacts, our results suggest that advocacy for trusting science must go beyond scientific labels, to focus on specific issues, critical evaluation, and the presence of consensus among several scientists... Fostering trust in the 'healthy skepticism' inherent to the scientific process may also be a critical element of protecting against misinformation ... Empowering people with knowledge about the scientific validation process and the motivation to be critical and curious may give audiences the resources they need to dismiss fringe but dangerous pseudoscience."​
     
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  20. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Sounds like a boomer problem.
     

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