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COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    I guess he went out believing what he believed. Some people have their priorities in life all ****ed up. I hope dying in the name of Trump and all that goes along with that poison pill was really worth it.
     
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  2. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Right but I actually think in this case you are the one ignoring the objective facts in place of your feelings

    The objective fact is Texas hospitals are being overwhelmed, that hospitalizations and admissions are at peak levels. That the people being hospitalized now are far younger then before.

    Your responding to a doctor confirming his experience with these factual events by saying what is he’s experiencing is anecdotal, skewed, and that it’s almost over. Those statements are actually just your feelings.

    It’s not almost over for him it’s at a peak. We don’t know what the future holds, we can hope, but we don’t know, today’s reality is today’s reality though.
     
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  3. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Again, back to my analogy, in December of 1944 the Germans were in the middle of the battle of the bulge and the allied lines were crumbling, that doesn't change the fact that the war would be over in Europe less than 6 months from then.

    I'm responding to someone telling me their feelings, I don't doubt those feelings but they have nothing to do with objective reality.

    The reality of the situation is that with the gains being made with vaccination and natural immunity every single day, with the death rates continuing to fall off, this pandemic is nearing the end.

    I'm not overly concerned about hospitalization numbers given that at one point the standard was deaths. The fact that the goalpost keeps shifting to a less and less severe standard is evidence that we are nearing the end. The simple fact is that the more people who get vaccinated or who have and then overcome COVID, the better everyone is. That doesn't mean everything is great right now, and I never suggested it was, I'm just pointing out that we are getting close to the end of this. The number of people in the population who are susceptible to COVID is shrinking every single day.

    Come up with outliers and anecdotes all you want, but when the data paints a different picture, that's what I'm going with.
     
  4. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    what is your source for the deaths falling off? Because I see it rising back up (the right most part of the graph is September):

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I posted it on the previous page, but I'll post again

    [​IMG]

    That's not to say there hasn't been a recent increase, but the worst of things is clearly behind us.

    At the peak of things, we were having nearly 4500 people die every single day, now our really bad days are like 1/3 of that. We still have way too many people hospitalized, but the fact that they are recovering now is a huge win that should be recognized.

    At some point relatively soon this pandemic will burn itself out as all do, it's not going to be a fun process, but the truth is that the end is very much in sight.
     
  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    Climate, pandemics, or anything else... You can use this to accurately predict behavior: what would this person do if we assume they can't comprehend their impacts on other humans?
     
    #12346 B-Bob, Sep 6, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2021
    Kim and ElPigto like this.
  7. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    That depends if we get another variant different from Delta. Not to be alarmist but this virus is certainly strange and it seems that it has become more virulent as it has become more infectious. The studies out of the UK indicated a significant increase in hospitalization rate from alpha to delta. Somewhere around 50-100% greater. The South American variants do seem a bit worrisome as well since they have genetic aspects to them that can evade vaccines. Delta is also demonstrating that as well. I posted a study relating to that a few pages back.

    The other issue that I see is our EXTREMELY slow adjustment for delta specific vaccines. This was thought to be something simple that could be rapidly rolled out and it hasn’t happened yet.

    I hate to bring in the cynical political aspect but part of me wonders if this was happening under the prior administration then the media fervor to get the delta specific vaccines rolled out would be much greater. The last update I saw on that issue was a month ago and pretty much nothing since.

    I appreciate your optimism but I think we are still kind of in a wait and see area again with covid. It does seem that areas with high vaccination and widespread prior infection are having decent success against delta like in the UK or Northeast US.
     
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  8. txtony

    txtony Member

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    Due to the high covid death rate among 75+ pre covid vaccine, the chart that shows 75+ is misleading because it squashes everything else. Look at daily total and per 100k over a 3 or 7-day avg for a clearer picture of what's going on. US and TX charts are below.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    CDC COVID Data Tracker
     
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  9. txtony

    txtony Member

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    I didn't think we would get back to 1k death per day back in May. Then delta hit along with continuing large pockets on unvaccinated. Once nearly everyone is vaccinated or infected, it should be over, unless Covid throws a nasty curveball. I just won't guess anymore. SarsCov2 has been too unpredictable.
     
  10. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    at least he went out doing what he loves best, which is being ignorant and engaging in fckery
     
    B-Bob likes this.
  11. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    so you acknowledge that there’s a recent increase, which contradicts your statement of “deaths are falling off”. Of course the worst is behind us, no one is debating that. I don’t expect it to go back to peak death levels since vaccines are available. But saying the end is near is flat out wrong when data is front of you showing that things are increasing. Do you mind sharing the source/link that your graph pulls data from?
     
  12. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    So I went ahead and did my own homework.

    I pulled raw data directly from the CDC website. Link: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Cau/9dzk-mvmi

    You can click the export button and you'll be able to download the data in .csv format.

    Using the raw data gathered, the graph appears to increase at the end (August, September months) as opposed to the graph you shared:

    [​IMG]

    Going further:

    [​IMG]

    July 2021 death % increase from the previous month matches the October 2020 death % increase.
    August 2021 death % increase from the previous month matches the November 2020 death % increase.
    If the trajectory continues and matches December 2020, we'll see a death total amount of 36,576 for September 2021. That amount matches the death total from May 2020.

    "Falling off" is the incorrect statement when looking at these facts. Maybe your feelings don't care for those 36,576 projected to die this month, but you do you.
     
  13. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    The source is the CDC, it's their graph.

    What it shows is rate statistics, so while the overall number is having a surge, the death rate stats are decreasing especially among those most at risk. Basically it shows that COVID-19 is becoming less fatal over time due to a host of reasons such as better treatment options available, a higher percentage of elderly being vaccinated, and the newer strains overall being more infectious but less lethal. Plenty of people still get hospitalized, but that's a move in the right direction compared to when people were just outright dying. Being able to move the goalposts in that direction is a good sign that things are improving.

    The main driver of the death toll has always been unvaccinated people over 50 and people with major comorbidities.

    Age Group Percentage of deaths Count of deaths
    0-4 Years <0.1% 165
    5-11 Years <0.1% 104
    12-15 Years <0.1% 133
    16-17 Years <0.1% 112
    18-29 Years 0.6% 3,098
    30-39 Years 1.3% 7,162
    40-49 Years 3.2% 17,057
    50-64 Years 15.7% 83,393
    65-74 Years 21.6% 114,942
    75-84 Years 27.1% 144,050
    85+ Years 30.4% 161,449

    If you manage to lower the case fatality rate among those over 50, which makes up nearly 95% of all COVID deaths, the danger from COVID will effectively be reduced to that of any other typical respiratory illness. That has to be the goal, because people will ALWAYS get sick, it's unavoidable. That's why I said earlier that anyone who is of age that isn't already vaccinated is an idiot. COVID is simply something you ARE going to get at some point. You can't just hope to avoid the inevitable.

    The immunity you get from vaccines and from overcoming COVID infection will eventually lead to COVID burning itself out, and that date is rapidly approaching, but that doesn't mean the danger is completely past us right now. That's especially the case for unvaccinated people over 50 and anyone with serious health problems......and being morbidly obese (anyone with a BMI over 40) absolutely counts as having serious health problems.

    In short, I'm saying that while it's not over yet, there is reason for optimism.
     
  14. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    I'm getting lost in the sauce, which one of these charts is the current death rate average amongst all citizens.

    EDIT it's the one Txtony posted

    Bobby Texas' death rate is climbing towards it's previous peak, things aren't on the downswing for Tx hospitals and Dr's. But whatever man, keep telling Tx ICU Dr's they aren't seeing the big picture, be the feelings over facts guy.
     
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  15. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Here's the problem with the graph and data you are sharing:

    " Data during recent periods are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes."
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Your entire basis behind your belief of "deaths falling off" is based on the last part of the graph you shared showing a decrease.... You are completely misinterpreting the data because the data isn't finalized.
     
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  16. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    His "facts" aren't even correct. Gross misuse / misinterpretation of data.
     
  17. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    No, that's you misunderstanding what they are saying. That's only talking about the incredibly recent numbers, the trends are clear even without the most recent data being added. Basically they are saying that their data within a few days or a week could be incomplete...which is fine, the trend has shown itself since like February.

    Nice attempt to find an excuse to completely dismiss the CDC's stats that go against the narrative you want to push, but a failed one.

    I gotta admit though, it's hilarious seeing you post CDC numbers yourself then immediately attempt to attack the CDC's numbers when they don't say what you want them to say.
     
  18. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    IM dismissing CDC numbers? I’m literally pulling them for you and interpreting it for you, lazy ass.
     
  19. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    I’m not attacking the data. Look back at the data in two weeks and see that the numbers have changed. Totally acting in forced ignorance now.
     
  20. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    You are attempting to dismiss a trend their numbers show that goes back to February with a disclaimer that states that the newest numbers may not be 100% accurate due to possible lag time between deaths and when they are reported and the death certificates are finalized.

    I'm sure that kind of dishonest BS might work on someone not paying attention, but c'mon guy, be better than that.

    Anyway, it's fine. If you want to go around thinking the world is coming to an end and that the sky is falling, go for it kiddo. I'll attempt to talk some sense into people but when they absolutely insist on burying their head in the sand I'll just stand back and laugh at their ridiculousness.

    I've found that when it comes to the COVID situation, you run into the intersection of cowardice and ignorance quite often.....and there's just no point trying to reason with it.
     

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