[Controversial] I feel McGrady should be our 3rd Option

I expect this will rankle at least a third of the BBS, so I'll try to be as clear as I can with this:

* this is not a "T-Mac sux!" thread
* this is not a "T-Mac should be traded!" thread

* this is about what I think may be in the best interest of the Rockets going forward

Why I feel this way:
1. The primary option must be able to break down an opponent's defense with regularity. Causing a defense to break down is the means to the end for any successful offense. You can either do so with team play (passing/cutting; the Adelman offense idealized), or with an unstoppable superstar that creates opportunities by drawing double/triple teams (Dream, LeBron).
Both Yao and Artest have shown they play well within the Adelman offense and both have shown they can break down a defense with their post play. Each year as a Rocket, McGrady has (in my eyes) grown more reluctant to attack the basket and break down a defense, increasingly prone to hang around the perimeter with or without the ball, and many here noted his disinclination to execute the Adelman offense.*
I consider the best statistical marker of a player's ability to wreck a defense by their FTA avg. Yao over the last two years has been the best at drawing fouls (8 fta/gm despite 83% career); Ron and McGrady are similar in this regard (5.2/gm as a King, McGrady dropping each year as a Rocket to last season's 5.4 avg).

2. Reliability as a scorer.
You want to know your #1 is going to show up every game and give you numbers.
I use a self-made marker for scoring consistency/reliability. I look at the percentage of games a player makes at least 2/3rds of his average or better. Everyone has good games and small-number games....but if you average 21, your team should count on you for better than 14 each night. Guys like Drew Gooden get bounced around the league despite a fair avg and numerous 20-10 games because he's just as likely to give you 7-5 the next night.
Last season, Yao got 2/3rds or better in 82% of games played (22 ppg-->15+ points in 45 games out of 55). Artest 86%, McGrady 74%.

3. Efficiency as a scorer.
For efficiency, I rely on points per shot. People get bent out of shape about this sometimes, but I have yet to hear a good argument against it: if you can get your team more points with using fewer possessions (shots), you're an efficient scorer. If you need 20+ shots to get 20 points, that's not a winning formula.
Yao, last two years: 1.44 pps. Ron, last two years: 1.24 pps. McGrady, last two years: 1.14 pps.
I'll wedge in here that slightly less than a quarter of Ron's shots are from 3, and he's been hitting them at a 37% clip the last two years. McGrady takes slightly more than a quarter of his shots from 3, despite hitting a weak 31% the last two years (29% last year). If you're taking more than 2 or 3 shots from deep each game, I'd expect you to hit at least a third of them. If you can't, cut down the attempts as they're no better than turnovers - and missed 3s are great at sparking a fastbreak the other way.

4. He's past his prime.
This shouldn't even be up for debate. He's only 29, but he's a very old 29, thanks to jumping over from HS. McGrady is now undeniably 5 years removed from his peak as an NBA player. By almost (assists a notable exception) every statistical and subjective measure, he does not produce what he used. Both Yao and Artest, by contrast, appear to be firmly within their primes.

5. He's going to be dealing with nagging injuries all year.
This may be more up for debate, but he's the only guy of the 3 who has openly declared that he is not going to be 100% going into the season (knee, shoulder) and even worse has already said he'll need surgery. He also has a chronic back condition, which is never going to go away.
It's only fair to mention that all 3 of our stars have a terrible history, recent or otherwise, of staying on the court. But of the three, McGrady seems to have the lowest chance of playing 90% or more of the regular season (at least at full strength).

Again - this is NOT a thread meant to ridicule McGrady. He can and has been a huge part of our success and we would not be better off without him.

What I am getting at is that we may have our best team success with him being employed as a "bonus" third option. Put the ball more often into the hands of the 2 stars that are more dependable game in and game out, the ones who score more efficiently, the ones who more regularly break down a defense close to the basket, the ones that best run the Adelman attack.

Evan


* - I hate anecdotal-only "evidence" to back up a point, but I'm not sure how to get around it here. This naturally is open to debate since everyone sees things from their own unique perspective.

 

I'm not asking which of the three you'd rather have if you could only play with one for the season (though Yao has shown that he can lead the team just as well as McGrady each time he's played long stretches w/o him).

I'm also not asking which should take the end-of-game shots. Kobe was always the #2 option behind Shaq, but was the guy taking the final shots.

I think, over the course of the regular season at least, it would benefit both the team and McGrady if the burden of being the offensive centerpoint was lessened on him. I'm NOT suggesting we'd be better off with him out of teh way. I'm NOT suggesting he come off the bench. I'm NOT suggesting that he feed off of scraps. I'm NOT suggesting we stop calling plays for him. I'm NOT suggesting that he be a 10 ppg role player. I'm mostly suggesting that we not depend on him to create as our main option - mainly based on the way he has resisted going into the paint (last spring, especially). Let's make the game easier on him.

Evan