Right now, we have a bunch of upstarts high in the Western Conference rankings, but are they for real? I decided to analyze the teams in the Western conference to see how they have done against quality opposition. It's early in the season, but this is my list of quality opponents: Lakers Dallas Sacramento Denver Seattle Utah Houston Portland Minnesota Memphis Golden State San Antonio (The champs are under .500, but they are the champs) Indiana Philly Detroit New Orleans Records and Analysis Lakers (15-3) 8-3 against quality opposition Dallas (12-6) 9-3 against QO Sacramento (12-4) 8-2 against QO Denver (12-6) 4-4 against QO Seattle (9-6) 3-4 against QO Utah (10-7) 7-6 against QO Houston (10-7) 5-6 against QO Portland (9-7) 5-6 against QO Minnesota (10-8) 2-7 against QO Memphis (9-8) 6-6 against QO Warriors (8-8) 5-6 against QO Spurs (9-10) 3-9 against QO After analysis, it is clear that the Lakers, Dallas, and Sacramento are the cream of the crop. They have played good quality opponents and beaten them at least 72% of the time. The Lakers stand out in that they have not even lost a game to a non-quality opponent - that's good coaching and good talent. While Denver has a shiny record, they have not played a lot of games against QO and have only won 50% of the time when they do. I predict they will fall back in the melee of teams struggling to make the playoffs. Seattle is also in the same position. They've only played one game against the upper echelon of teams (LA, Sac, Dallas, Indiana, NO) and lost. Sadly, Utah does not look like a fluke. They have acquitted themselves well (for their record) against QO. Houston needs to pick it up a notch, but they have done well against weak opponents (5-1) and should manage to get a playoff spot if they continue this trend. You have to wonder what's going on in Minnesota. This analysis seems to point to big problems for the Wolves, as the only QO they've been able to beat are Memphis and Denver. Despite all of their talent, it looks like once they start playing some better opponents more often, their 10-8 record may head south of .500 rather quickly. They were supposed to be fighting for first-round home court this year, not the 8th playoff spot. San Antonio is the last team to be analyzed, and they only got in as they are the reigning champs. Well, they aren't playing like it, and they have lost most of the games they have played against QO. Unless Popovich gets this ship turned around, they could be the NBA's version of the Bucs this year. Eastern conference top 4, just for grins Indiana (15-4) 8-2 against QO Detroit (14-6) 3-6 against QO New Orleans (13-6) 6-2 against QO Philly (9-10) 3-6 against QO I thought I'd do a bit of the Leastern conference for fun. It looks like Indiana and NO are for real, while Detroit's record is a bit questionable considering their performance against good teams. Still, they should be fine considering the lack of good teams in the east.
Sorry DaDa - I knew when I got to Philly that it was the fact that they lead their division that put them second in the conference rankings, not their record. I wasn't about to go back and redo all the calculations to have them as a quality opponent though. But since you asked, Toronto has a record of 6-5 against quality opponents. It looks like they deserve a little more respect than I gave them, and I apologize.
GS interesting way to look at things, if a little early to do so. I think it is too early to make a judgement on the Wolves and Spurs. The Wolves went through more major offseason moves than any other good team--it is way too early to judge them. The Spurs have gone through some major changes (no DR--whihc affects their D and they miss SJ more than they thought) and also played many games with TD. I think both of these teams will have solid if not strong second halfs and be among the 5 elite teams--though never quite close in on LA, Dal and Sac. Remember Sac doesn't have Webber yet either. IMO in the West you will have: (1) The Lakers all by their lonesome (barring injury) (2-3) The Mavs and Sac (4-5) SA & Minn (6-8) Open--probably Hou, Sea & Port, I think Den, Utah and I know GS will fade as the season goes by. Energy, effort and enthusiasm only keep lack of talent and/or youth from catching up to you only so long in the NBA grind. A lot of your info is consistent with this, except that Minn & SA will hit their stride barring major injuries and most of the truly unexpected adequate performers will fall over time. In east the Indy & NO are good teams, probably better than the 6-8 in the West (like Houston), but probably no better than Minny when it is all said and done.
It is funny how you guys just look over my Grizzlies. We have had the hardest schedule in the NBA at this point in the season. 11 of 17 on the road. Only one homestand with more than one game and that was two games vs. Dallas and Detroit. Add to that, we already have wins over the Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs, Rockets(on the road), Seattle(on the road), New Jersey (on the road). We will make the playoffs.
I do think the Grizzlies and Nuggets will finish ahead of the Warriors and Jazz, though I think none of these teams will make the playoffs.
Actually, I didn't overlook Memphis - their QO performance validated their place in the standings. They have played better than the Rockets against good teams - but they have also lost to two sub-par teams so far. I think if you want to make the playoffs in the west and can only manage .500 ball against quality opposition, you HAVE to mop up on weaker opponents. I believe that the teams that can do this, whether it be Utah, Memphis, Houston, Denver, or even Golden State, will make the playoffs.
