We got some really good conference championship games this week... Highlight games: Texas-Nebraska -- Should be an interesting game... I don't think Texas will run away with this one... A lot of people think Nebraska could upset... we'll see what happens Alabama-Florida -- This will probably be a grinder... both sides have great defense... both sides have good offenses... Not sure if Ingram will be good to go for this one, I think Florida will win this one though. Oregon St.-Oregon -- This one will be a grind out match also.... I would like to see Oregon St. upset... Georgia Tech-Clemson -- Georgia Tech runs the ball really well... Clemson showed last week that they couldn't handle SCAR's running game... I think GT will run away with this one. Cincinnati-Pittsburgh UH-E.Car Boise St.-New Mexico St. USC-Arizona Should be a really fun week... Determines who will play for that national title... Good slate of games.
Unless UT chokes like dogs, they should handle Nebraska. If Colt McCoy is sharp like against A&M, they should win comfortably. For some weird reason, I've liked Oregon and Oregon State for years, even though I've only been to the state one time in my life. I hope it's a nail-biter that goes down to the last play. UF should beat Alabama but you have to play the game.
I hope we put away little brother (Oregon State) early. I about suffered 3 heart attacks in one night the last game against Arizona. GO DUCKS! ROSE BOWL bound baby.
I tried to get tickets to the Texas game but they were 160 a pop on Stub Hub. Would be heartbreaking if Texas lost. We'd still end up in a BCS game, Orange Bowl more than likely. Couldn't complain though, if you can't win your conference and beat an inconsistent team like Nebraska, you don't deserve to be in the championship. Teams guaranteed a spot in BCS (7 Teams): TCU, Texas/Nebraska, Ohio St, Oregon State/Oregon, Georgia Tech/Clemson, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh, Florida/Alabama. That leaves room for 3 at large teams. It will be interesting to see where TCU goes. The Fiesta Bowl will have the 1st shot at them if Texas goes to the Championship Games (The Sugar bowl will technically have the 1st choice but they will take the loser of the Florida-Alabama game). Would the Fiesta take TCU over an unbeaten Cincy team? Prob not. I'd see it playing out like this: Championship Game: Texas vs. Winner of Alabama/Florida This is the order that the bowls will pick their teams. The teams losing tie ins go 1st. Sugar: Loser of Alabama/Florida Fiesta: Undefeated Cincy Orange: Penn St. or Iowa (vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson) Fiesta: Virginia Tech (vs. Cincy) (THANKS TO MAJOR FOR THE FIX) Sugar: Forced to take TCU (vs. Loser of Alabama/Florida) If Texas loses and Cincy wins, I'd see Cincy moving to number 2 past idle TCU. Since both TCU and Cincy are automatic BCS teams and don't have tie in bowls, it wouldn't really affect how the rest of the bowls turn out. Sugar: Loser of Alabama/Florida Orange: Texas (Easy pick. Biggest reach, good travel team, high ratings) (vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson) Fiesta: Penn St. or Iowa (vs. Nebraska) Sugar: Stuck with TCU (vs. loser Alabama/Florida) Maybe bowls are bigger on TCU than I assume. Hard to figure out what the extra team will be that makes it. Iowa? Penn St? Virginia Tech? Going to be a lot of good matchups.
It is amazing that there are essentially five AQC championship games this weekend. Of the 6 AQCs, the Big 10 is the only one where the BCS bid has already been determined. I can't wait for this weekend! Too bad my Razorbacks shat the bed in the last minute of their game versus LSU.
Penn State and Iowa can't both go, so you're missing a team in there either for the Orange or Fiesta. I think Fiesta ends up with Boise St (the 4th at large team) vs. Iowa. Sugar, I agree - TCU vs SEC-loser. Orange would get Cinci/GaTech. I just don't see another at-large that makes sense over Boise State at this point. No one in the B12, Pac10, BigEast, or ACC deserves it and will all have 3 losses minimum (unless Pitt beats Cinci).
I would be surprised if they picked Boise. They prob deserve it most but they play in one of the worst conferences and according to Colley Matrix, their SOS is 107th in football. BUT you play the games you have and they won them all. Also, Boise makes it on national TV for thursday night games more than a couple times a year IIRC. I'm sure they could cover tickets but not sure how many would travel. Virg Tech would really be the only other option. LSU and Iowa are out bc of the max 2 team per conference rule (Thanks Major for the fix to my post). If Boise is picked, I think it would say a lot for fairness in the BCS toward smaller conferences.
Just a nitpicky detail...wouldn't Iowa and not PSU be in line for the B10 at-large? They're ranked higher in the BCS and beat them in the H2H matchup...
IIRC, it's up to the bowl organizers. I would think they would want to go for Penn since it might be a bigger lure. You are probably right though. They would put a higher priority on the better performing team.
there's no way the BCS will pick Virginia Tech over Boise. VT isn't known for traveling to bowl games particularly well. Furthermore, it would create a total **** storm among the general public...The BCS isn't going to damage its public and political goodwill (even further) for a mediocre VT team. A perfect storm was needed in order to get both TCU and Boise into the BCS Bowls, but it happened...
ESPN agrees with you. I think you could add Cincy to the list of bad for BCS teams. They are one of the Conference USA pickups of 2003 and don't come in with much of a national following. On an unrelated note, did you guys see the news a few weeks ago about the Alamo Bowl? They are going to be put behind the Rose Bowl for Pac 10 teams and behind the Cotton Bowl for Big 12 teams in picks for their tieins. Pretty awesome. I'll definitely go next year. They would get USC in years the Trojans finish 2nd or 3rd or worse if they wanted to take them over a team with a better record.
so here's my question of the week... Florida wins over Alabama Texas loses to Nebraska Cincy beats Pitt Can an undefeated Cincy hop TCU to the championship since they have a bye this week? Edit: I should have finished reading all the posts before submitting my questions.. Brando says it's possible... anyone else?
while we should beat nebraska, unfortunately they get their strength (the D-line) against our weakness (the O-line). i can't imagine our running game will do much of anything which means mccoy has to throw a lot. which means, even if we win, i'm going to be holding my breath a lot as he gets knocked down and you wait for the camera to pan back over to him to see if he's getting up comfortably. balancing not getting colt hurt with hoping he wins the heisman is going to be tricky (any slip-up and the media will be beating the drums for a tebow win). and if we do beat nebraska, i definitely want to see alabama. florida is certainly the more glamorous matchup, and follows the 2005 script more perfectly, but all that misdirection in the offense (that option pitch to the TE is rough) to go with the D is scary. at least alabama's qb generally sucks and their power running game is a good matchup for our run D.
To elaborate: Cincy is 3rd in the computers right now and TCU is 5th. Colley Matrix ratings allow you to add games to the rankings to see how they are affected. Here is the scenario you suggested: http://www.colleyrankings.com/scgi-bin/playgod.cgi I really can't see how beating a 9-3 Pitt team wouldn't move Cincy up at least 1 spot past an idle TCU. It sucks for TCU but that should be the advantage to conferences that force teams to schedule a tough game at the end of their schedule. If the MT West had a championship game like the Big East does, TCU might not have played a 1 win New Mexico team (which brought their computer ranking down). They would have played a 10 win BY team again. What's interesting is that a cincy loss keeps Florida and Alabama and 1 and 2.
I think it would depend on how they look. The voters really like TCU. If Cinci wins ugly (and/or Alabama loses a close game), you could end up with ballots like: Florida TCU Alabama Cinci TCU would probably need some of those. But even without it, it's a big of a toss-up. Even now, Cinci has a good advantage in the computers and isn't above TCU overall. I'm not sure how much more Cinci could gain that regards - they aren't going to jump Florida, so they might already be peaked out in the computer advantage.
To be fair to TCU, the Big East doesn't have a championship game. It just got lucky that Pitt and Cinci are their two best teams and happen to be playing in the final week this year (similar to the Pac10 with Oregon/Oregon State). If Pitt had sucked this year, it could just as easily have been Cinci closing against a 3-8 team.
East Carolina is built too much like MSU and UCF. Plus Greenville is one of the few places in CUSA that actually has a homefield advantage. I'm not going to be entirely shocked if the Cougars can't pull it out. However, last year they went up there and punched a then ranked ECU team in the mouth, and that was a worse team than we have this year, so who knows.