CNNSI: Tracy McGrady - counterpart to Michael Jordan

Who's next?
Numbers reveal modern counterparts to past stars

By Justin Kubatko, Basketball-Reference.com, Special to SI.com

Who's the next Michael Jordan? Seemingly asked with each new star that bursts upon the NBA scene, the answer seemingly changes each season. While the league has yet to produce anyone who fits the bill aesthetically, statistics offer a hint by way of similarity scores, which measure how closely one player resembles another. Factors such as a player's size (height and weight), shooting percentage, assist ratio (assists per 100 possessions), rebound rate (percentage of missed shots a player rebounded while he was on the floor), turnover ratio (turnovers per 100 possessions) and usage rate (possessions per 40 minutes) are taken into account when calculating similarity scores. The scores range from 0 to 1000, with 1000 being a perfect score. (For more details on the similarity scores method, please read this article.)

So who measures up? To Jordan? Not many. But, based on their statistics from last season, plenty of today's superstars remind of some of the more famous -- and infamous -- players of the past 25 years.

In the table below, 82games.com's Roland Beech and I have tabulated how closely some of today's players compare to their predecessors. Please note that even though two players may be statistically similar, it does not mean that they were the same type of player. It simply means they produced similar results.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/82games/11/15/similarity/index.html

 

Our ex-Rockets:


Clyde Drexler-Vince Carter

Drexler and Carter are both players who, at one time or another, were compared to Jordan. Drexler, a contemporary of Jordan, was often thought of as "Jordan-lite" during his career. Carter was compared to Jordan thanks mainly to his college (the University of North Carolina) and high-flying acrobatics. While it's unfair to compare just about anyone to Jordan, Drexler and Carter compare to each other quite well. Last year Carter shot 45.2 percent from the floor, 79.8 percent from the line and played 36.7 minutes per game. Drexler, in his career, shot 47.2 percent from the floor, 78.8 percent from the line and averaged 34.6 minutes per game. Both players blocked shots at a similar rate (0.8 per 40 minutes for Drexler, 0.7 for Carter) and fouled at similar rates (3.5 per 40 minutes for Drexler, 3.4 for Carter). Drexler was a more complete player than Carter, however, with a higher assist ratio (20.8 versus 14.6) and rebound rate (9.9 percent versus 8.4 percent).


Scottie Pippen-Lamar Odom

Everyone says that Kobe Bryant needs a sidekick, a Scottie Pippen, if you will. Interestingly enough, the player who had an '04-05 season that was most similar to a typical Pippen season was Kobe's teammate, Lamar Odom. Both players averaged 35-36 minutes per game, shot 47 percent from the floor, 70 percent from the line, and posted turnover ratios of about 12. The players differ most when it comes to assist ratios (22.7 for Pippen and 18.2 for Odom) and rebound rates (10.6 percent for Pippen and 15.9 percent for Odom). It's also worth mentioning that Pippen was named to the NBA's All-Defense first team eight times, while Odom did not receive one All-Defense vote last season.


Hakeem Olajuwon-Shaquille O'Neal

Olajuwon and O'Neal are two of the greatest centers of all time, so it's only fitting that both compare quite favorably to each other. They posted similar assist ratios (9.8 for Olajuwon and 10.9 for O'Neal), turnover ratios (11.8 and 11.1), rebound rates (17.2 percent and 17.8 percent) and usage rates (26.1 and 27.4). The major difference between the two is at the foul line. Olajuwon's career free-throw percentage was a respectable 71.2 percent. O'Neal -- whose problems with free throws over the years have been well documented over the years -- shot just 46.1 percent from the line last year. O'Neal did have a sizable advantage from the floor, though, shooting 60.1 percent last year compared to Olajuwon's career mark of 51.2 percent. What I find most amazing is this: O'Neal's '04-05 season, a season which saw him finish as the runner-up in the MVP voting, was very similar to a typical season from Olajuwon. That speaks volumes about the quality of Olajuwon's career.