CNNSI:First-year follies NBA's top draft picks getting a lesson in humility

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John Hollinger, CNNSI.com

If you're trying to handicap the NBA Rookie of the Year race, the hardest part may be finding worthy candidates.

We're a week into the season, and just like everyone predicted, the top rookies have been .... Gordan Giricek and Pat Burke?!?!? What is going on here? Where are the impact rookies?

We're seeing the product of two phenomena. First, the NBA draft is getting younger every year. As more players are selected out of high school or after a year of college, they need more time to develop into quality players. The emergence of players like Jermaine O'Neal and Al Harrington of the Pacers after a few years of incubation is a good example.

The second factor is the internationalization of the game. Nearly every foreign player has made major strides in his second season in the league, after figuring out how the game is called and how it differs from European play. While older European imports have been the most game-ready rookies the past few years, they've still needed time to acclimate themselves.

All that makes what's happening this year less remarkable, but the trend is still worth noting: Top draft choices aren't paying immediate dividends.

Take this year's draft, for instance. The top pick, Yao Ming, is a project with a capital P. He needs to learn a new language in addition to new rules, and jumps into the NBA schedule despite not having had a rest in at least two years. The second pick, Jay Williams, is taking his lumps as a rookie point guard in Chicago, but he's been a staggering success compared with some of the players taken later.

Consider Melvin Ely, Chris Wilcox, Bostjan Nachbar, Fred Jones and Marcus Haislip, for example. Each was taken in the top fifteen picks, but none has received more than a token garbage-time minute or two thus far.

Mike Dunleavy, the third overall pick, hasn't fared much better. He's made just one of 11 field-goal attempts in his young career and is stuck deep in the Warriors' rotation. Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Nene Hilario have shown promise in Denver, but both have been mistake-prone and are averaging single figures in scoring.

Even the ones who have done well come with an asterisk. The Suns' Amare Stoudemire is the top rookie rebounder at 7.3 per game, but he's also shooting just 31 percent and has failed to take the starting job from the shriveled wreck known as Tom Gugliotta. San Antonio's Emanuel Ginobili has shown defensive talent but is shooting just 38 percent, while Washington's Jared Jeffries and Orlando's Ryan Humphrey have had their moments but been turnover-prone.

Besides Giricek and Burke, neither of whom were selected in this year's draft, only two rookies have truly made an impact, and it's no secret why. Drew Gooden of the Grizzlies developed his game for three years at Kansas -- an eternity these days -- and is now averaging 15 points a game on scintillating 55 percent shooting for the Grizzlies.

Meanwhile, Caron Butler did two full years at Connecticut before turning pro and was far older than most rookies at 22. He's now averaging 14 points and six boards a night for Miami and contributing at the other end, holding Sacramento's Peja Stojakovic to 2-of-13 shooting during the Heat's win over the Kings on Sunday night.

The lesson is simple. Long term, the trend has been that the high-schoolers are the ones who end up in All-Star Games and shoe commercials. But for immediate impact, experienced rookies like Butler and Gooden will have the upper hand. The fact that fewer players are entering the league with that level of experience has made the impact rookie an endangered species.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/news/2002/11/03/waag_1104/

 

1.Yao Ming accepted the interview of CNN Judy Campel (spell?).

Chinese version http://www.bjyouth.com/article.jsp?oid=1717723

2. NBA shoot the commercial of Yao Ming at yesterday. Yao Ming plays Taiqi with Hawkins and Clutch bear in the film.

http://www.bjyouth.com/article.jsp?oid=1717725