[ClutchFans] For Rockets, winning in 2012 would be nice, but losing might be better

Pretty much what I was thinking too, and to top it off, by the time they get that stud through the draft (unless they get really lucky in trade - unlikely) McHale will have been fired and Finch will be the guy.

DD

 

I'm sorry but I completely disagree. Losing does not guarantee a franchise player (as the kings and for many years the clippers) and many times teams that were mediocre managed to get good without tanking.

I'll forever be opposed to tanking, it's just not the way to go.

 

Clutch,

The article was pretty much what I've been calling for over the past year; I'm glad you finally came around. In all seriousness, the McDonalds Monopoly game analogy was brilliant and I'm jealous I never thought of it myself.

There seems to be some signs that Les has softened his stance on demanding us to compete if we strike out (again) in free agency. Though personally, I don't even see Nene coming close to putting us over the top. Another defensive PF playing out of position that can't block shots.. nope, we still won't be good enough.

 

You're right in that it doesn't guarantee you a franchise player, but it really depends on how competent your management team actually is. As for the Clippers, the team is starting to make changes and Blake Griffin is a solid cornerstone franchise player to build on. Players of his caliber don't exactly grow on trees. The Rockets have a far more competent management team and have shown in recent years that they most certainly do their research when it comes to player evaluation via the draft. I have confidence in Morey and given the right pick(s) (hopefully a top 5 pick as opposed to the perennial 14th slot), Morey will know who to pick. The current draft class is pretty stacked. If I were to pick a player with the top pick I would take good hard look at Perry Jones. If you've never seen him play in person, I would Youtube him, because come draft time, he is going to leap-frog some some of the players (i.e Anthony Davis, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Drummond) who are garnering most of the attention early in the NCAA season. Without Lacedarius jacking up 50 shots a game, Jones is going to put up monster numbers for Baylor and the team will be able to make a deep run in March.

 

Yes, tanking does not guarantee a superstar (Clippers before Blake, Kings, T-Wolves, etc.), but this is Morey we're talking about. Look at what he's done with mid round and late round picks. Look at how he sees value in players that no one else wants. Imagine what he can do with a high pick in a loaded draft. The Rockets are very fortunate to have great management, so I'm sure if they tanked they would get it right instead of botching high picks.

 

Clippers - Griffin, Gordon
Kings - Cousins, Tyreke
Twolves - Love, Rubio, Beasley

While they may have sucked, they are certainly taking some shots at finding a franchise player, or two.

DD

 

Ha, Clutch has been reading my post!

:grin:

 

I hate the idea of tanking, but it’s pretty much going to happen if we strike out on Nene and Chuck leaves for more money/the chance to play for a contender. The first one is almost guaranteed, and the second is looking more and more likely with teams like Boston calling Chuck already. I think we lost every game during that stretch that Hill had to start at center, except that Boston game where Brooks went into god mode...

The good news about this is we get to tank while keeping all the good pieces that Morey worked so hard to obtain. I really hate the idea of giving up a guy like Scola for a late first, since that’s about all we’d get and he means a lot more to us than that. Imagine if we plug Drummond into this already constructed team...

 

Management is a factor. Those squads did not have it. Rox do.

 

I agree that many "old CBA contracts" now look worse under the new CBA, but I think you overestimate how bad they really are.

The funny thing is, the Rockets are one of the teams LEAST affected by your worries.

Kevin Martin has a large annual salary (although not that bad for a top-10 scorer in the league), but his contract only runs another two years.

Luis Scola's contract may cause some problems down the line as his salary increases at a greater rate than "new CBA" contracts. But Scola's contract is by no means a cap killer.

Kyle Lowry actually has a VERY reasonable deal, considering his age (24-25) and marked improvement with increased playing time.

All the other players on the team are either on rookie deals or minimum (or relative equivalent) contracts, which are the best contracts to have under either CBA (except for super-duper-stars on max contracts).

The reason you've been hearing it for so long is because T-Mac and Yao started breaking down a while back. Unfortunately for Morey, T-Mac (in some ways accidentally and in some ways intentionally) absolutely killed his own trade value, and Morey was masterful in getting the haul he did for T-Mac. Then, Yao broke down but provided just enough promise for the team to be caught in "rebuilding purgatory" for two years. With Yao Ming now retired, December 9, 2011--A DATE THAT HASN'T EVEN HAPPENED YET--will be the first day that Daryl Morey can actually do anything to rebuild the post-Yao Rockets.

(Also, Gortat didn't CHOOSE Orlando over Houston a couple of years ago. Dallas offered Gortat more money than Houston, so he took the bigger deal; but because he was a restricted free agent, Orlando matched Dallas's offer sheet and automatically retained Gortat, who was PISSED when it happened. He wanted to start for Dallas or Houston over going back to Orlando.)

To your more general point, though, you may be right. All Morey can do is continue to amass assets. In his mind (for right or for wrong), he's managed to acquire guys he views as mid-lottery pick caliber (T-Will, Patterson, Morris). He has a very attractive pick to offer (the NYK pick, only top-5 protected). He's got a large trade exception to use to acquire excess salary (the $7.35M Battier TPE). He's got a top-10 scorer who probably makes less than anyone else in the top-10 not on a rookie deal (Martin). He's got plenty of other good--but not great--players to offer as well (Scola, Lowry, Lee, Dragic). He's got "diamonds-in-the-rough" that he's managed to buy low and may be able to sell higher (the 2009 lotto disappointments). He's got some good talent stashed overseas (Motiejunas, Llull, Eliyahu).

Sure, I can't see the Rockets putting together a Godfather Offer the likes that a team like the Clippers can (Eric Gordon and the MIN unprotected 2012 first rounder are just two tremendous assets); but the Clippers can't make TWO offers of that caliber. The Rockets can compete with just about any other team, including New Jersey (albeit Brook Lopez and two first rounders will be hard to beat).

As quickly as I'd like to have seen the Rockets become contenders again, I think you have to count December 9, 2011 as "DAY ONE" of Morey's rebuilding efforts, since that's the first day he'll be free of Yao's $17M+ of salary clogging his cap.

Let's see what happens.

 

Well we have the perfect scenario to do so if we want. Shortened season. Veterans Scola and Martin to trade away for high draft choices. Young guys to put in their places and try to develop. I say why not? It wont be intentional to tank if you trade away Scola and Martin for draft picks. You might even get some surprise production out of the guys who replace them? You get the draft picks as a bonus and maybe some young talent in return? There is no wrong in it if you are not doing the tanking as a practice of your teams habits. If you are starting rookies/young guys, and losing while developing them? Then also getting draft picks in the process? It is perfectly acceptable under those conditions.

 

Realistically no team is going to offer high draft picks for Luis or Kevin.

 

What about for Luis and Kevin?

 

How high would a draft pick really be after a team gets Luis and Kevin?

 

The teams that would offer unrestricted picks probably wouldn't lose enough games to makes those picks very valuable, but are there contenders who hold the rights to another team's picks? Those are the sort of deals you would look for.

 

If we go in the tank route, Scola needs to be the first off the team. Trade him, Flynn, and Lee to the Kings for thompson, garcia or salmons, (which ever isn't amnestied) and their 2012 1st rd pick. Then amnesty the bad contract.

That way we have 3 2012 1st rd picks and are "en route" for tanking.

Lowry/Dragic
Martin/ T-will
Bud/ Morris
Ppat/ Hill
Thompson/ Thabeet

 

how about we trade for a 1 year rental superstar like cp3 and then if we dont convince him to stay, we understandably go into tank mode?? leaving no doubts that we're doing it on purpose lol. i would imagine that we would really suck if this happened thus giving us a great shot at the #1 pick!

 

Clutch should be getting paid for writing stuff like this, a thousand times better than anyone at the Chronicle.

 

while I understand logically the idea of "losing might be better" this year, I just can't wrap my heart around it.

I'm with Les, I'd rather see a team that is trying to win than one that plays the young players to "see" if they are good enough to help later.

But I said in the Chuck thread that I believe he will end up on a different roster because of exactly what Clutch said in this article... it makes sense in some ways... but then again, this frenzy of possible trades before this season begins may lead us to something interesting if another team decides to make it a lame duck season as well

 

100% agree with the article and as I have stated before. Play the 09 busts so you can see if they are in your future plans, showcase them for trade bait, and tank without looking obvious.

Best bet would be that one or two of Hill, Flynn, Thabeet, T-Will play really well and entice Orlando enough to trade us Dwight. At the same time playing the young guys big minutes gets us a losing season and a top pick in a deep draft to add to Dwight or trade for another top player.

This BS purgatory of #14 picks is for the birds.