I am starting this thread for those who like to think in baseball concepts which are not associated with particular players, field managers or Tactical decisions. Those already have threads and good ones. This is more for amateur Owner and GM wanabees. First post example. What would you reasonably want from a Starting pitcher headed into October? 1. A pitcher who can throw a complete game. My assumptions are that it takes about 15 pitches an inning on average to get a side out against a good and patient team. 15 x 9 means we're looking for about 145 pitches. This is not currently a trendy number. Current general thought is that 100 pitches is a magic limit except in extraordinary instances. I remember when the transition occurred and Nolan Ryan's reaction to it when he was put on a pitch count. This concept was in reaction to the shortened careers of many power pitchers at the time. But this did not coincide with a five pitcher rotation which was a later development as was pitch counts for finesse pitchers, The effect was to reduce the perceived wear and tear on the pitching arm. I would simply like to consider an alternative strategy. Rather than reducing Innings pitched in each game, perhaps a six man rotation might be able to accomplish the same task. Forgetting tactical considerations like match-ups and days off, The current trend of 100 pitches per game every 5 days in a 30 day month leads to 600 competitive pitches per month. If you try 145 pitches per game every 6 days in a 30 day month, you get 725 Competitive pitches per month so that still leads to more competitive pitches per month. This is where we would have to make a choice. Either change the idea that 600 pitches per month is magical or utilize off days differently. Building in an additional day, rather than skipping the 5th or 6th pitcher, utilize a spot starter or Bull pen day when there is no off day. This leaves essentially 4.5 starts per month, so 652.5 pitches. So to get down to the magical 600 pitches, we have to reduce the pitches per game to less than 9 innings. 134 pitches on a seven day cycle gives us about 603 pitches per month. This is all esoteric and conceptual. Someone would have to try it as a way to become less reliant on the Bull Pen and rely on more starting pitchers. Certainly the effects of changing the physiology of recovery and maintenance of the pitchers feel and rhythm would have to be considered, but we are still seeing numerous injuries in pitchers, so the current model doesn't seem to be the "solution." Now the fact we have a surplus of potentially quality starters, when healthy, has nothing to do with it. LOL!
Manfred keeps toying with ways to shorten games, but the most effective way to do it is to limit commercial breaks between half innings to one minute. He'll never do that, but it is the primary cause of longer games. He wants to change the game rather than limit interruptions he can sell for big money. How about a clock on commercial breaks rather than the pitcher?
