Dig deep to keep Beltran Beltran has presented the Astros with an opportunity to do something bold, to transform their roster and reputation with a player good enough to be the franchise's cornerstone for the next five years. They should be thrilled he's willing to listen. They should also be worried he knows more about them than they seem to know about him. "I don't want to sign here if it means they have to start getting rid of guys," he said. "If they sign me, they have to sign Lance Berkman, too. If they sign me, they have to sign Roy Oswalt and Adam Everett. Those guys are our team. I look around our clubhouse and see a lot of good players. If we stay together, we can win." Beltran must know how the Astros operate. He must know they make a splash one winter by signing Jeff Kent, then use the contract to help justify the trade of closer Billy Wagner the next. He must know that even while signing Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to below-market deals last winter, Astros owner Drayton McLane refused to spend the money necessary to construct a quality bullpen. 27 and climbing Beltran might simply be letting the Astros know upfront that he's not staying if it means gutting the roster. Because the Astros haven't made so much as a telephone call to agent Scott Boras, they might not even be interested in having him back. What a shame that would be. Maybe they don't think a bold move is necessary. Maybe they think they can continue to piece things together from their thin farm system and general manager Gerry Hunsicker's bottom-feeding of the free-agent market. How about being aggressive for once? How about going after a difference-maker? How about getting someone on his way to becoming one of baseball's 10 best players? Defensively, he's the best the Astros have had in center field. Offensively, he's one of those rare talents with 30-homer, 30-stolen base potential. And he's all of 27 years old. The Berkman gamble Yes, it'll be expensive to keep him. Boras wants at least a five-year deal worth $15 million or more per season, and no agent is better at playing the open market. Such a contract would present an array of problems for McLane. For one thing, it would magnify how he has mishandled negotiations with Berkman. Berkman should have been signed last winter when the Astros might have gotten a hometown discount. Instead, they essentially dared him to have a good season and prove he was worth a raise. No matter what is said or done from this point on, Berkman understands McLane bet against him. McLane lost. Berkman is hitting .297 and on a pace for a 27-homer, 98-RBI season. He's still a year away from free agency, but he will get $8 million or more from the arbitration process this winter. "The way I look at it, they took the chance," he said. "I didn't." What he says next should be a wake-up call for McLane. "For a long time, I could never see myself playing anywhere else," he said. "But you can never predict what's going to happen with the business side." McLane's bean counters surely will argue against signing Berkman and Beltran. They'll argue that $20 million of an $80 million payroll shouldn't be invested in two positions, especially with Jeff Bagwell scheduled to make $13 million in 2005 and Oswalt due a huge raise. Then there's Clemens. If he decides to return in 2005, he can justify asking almost any salary considering what he has brought the franchise in terms of credibility and performance. Beltran can be that type of investment as well. Boras might steer him toward the Yankees or Red Sox, but McLane should at least make an effort. Even in this disappointing season, the Astros are not far from being good. Next season's rotation could have Clemens, Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Wade Miller and Carlos Hernandez. Chad Qualls and Dan Miceli could be a formidable setup tandem in front of Brad Lidge. With Chris Burke at the top of the order and Berkman and Beltran in the middle, the Astros could win 90-plus games. First, though, McLane has to be aggressive, and that aggressiveness has to begin with Beltran. "I want to be someplace with a chance to win a pennant," he said. "This next stop will be my last one for a long time. My wife and I want to buy a home and be part of the community. "Hopefully, we won't have to think about that until after the playoffs." By then, McLane will have had plenty of time to think about how important Beltran could be to his club. Here's hoping he does the right thing. It's going to be an interesting summer!
Surely Beltran doesn't think that Drayton is going to start approaching $90 MIL in payroll to meet these demands. Its going to be tough to make this all work out.
It can be done... and we could keep all those guys... but then we could still be mediocre. That would leave around 6-7 million dollars (every year for the life of Beltran/Berkman/Oswalt's contracts) to try to improve a very thin bullpen, 2 starting rotation spots, a much improved offensive catcher, future first-baseman, and a pretty thin bench. Then again, it could be done... as long as you don't start overpaying for guys like Wade Miller (who might have hindered his arbitration $$$ with his injury-year), and Brad Ausmus. Look at the Cardinals... they have two big contracts in Pujols/Rolen, a decent-to-big sized contract in Edmonds, and Matt Morris is making 12.5 million dollars this year (he's actually their highest paid player). They have a fairly deep bullpen, but only Izzy is making decent $$$. Their bench is very thin (thus their everyday players play EVERYDAY), and they signed journeyman like Reggie Sanders and Tony Womack on the cheap. The key for them is that if they can get cheap/good quality starting pitching (like Munro has done for them this year... or what Villone did for them last year), and hope/pray that somebody else can come out of the minors and last/succeed up here... then they could have a very good team at only around an $85 million payroll. Combine a good team with good attendance (which will happen only if they win), and a hopefully new tv-deal with the Rockets network... and Drayton might be compelled to get payroll that high.
If I had to guess.... I'd say that snake in the grass Drayton McLane will not give the money to Beltran. And the Berkman situation.... typical snake. Here's to rolling back payrolls like Wal-Mart rolls back prices.
One thing's for sure... with Pujols/Rolen still very much in their primes, and under contract, for the next 5-6 years.... and with the Cubs impending signing of Nomar, their continued development of Prior/Wood/Clement/Zambrano/another young stuf from their minor league, and their likelihood of making a big splash to try to get another big name in that lineup to replace Alou... ... the astros need something good to keep them in the hunt for the forseeable future.
I'm not saying it accurately reflects the situation, but generally speaking, I think the Astros will need a 90 plus million dollar payroll to compete for a ring.
4 games back... 7 games left against the Cubs... it's going to be interesting! One way or another, this team will have some changes but I think Clemens will be back.
I heard an inteview with someone from the Chronicle on ESPN last week (I think it was Justice so take it for what its worth), but he said that he was almost positive Clemens would be coming back from what he had heard. That was definitely news to me.
Richard Justice seems like one of those reporters that once he believes in a certain course of events (regardless of whether or not he got confirmation that its true, or regardless of what qualified people actually say), he will run with it and argue it like its a factual point. Example: He constantly says how management screwed up by signing Jeff Kent, because it forced them to get rid of Billy Wagner the following year. Uhh... first of all, Billy pretty much wrote his own ticket out. Second of all, who was the big spending genius who signed him to a ludicrous 10-12 million dollar/year deal for a closer. Third, he fails to mention that Wagner has had arm trouble all year (starting in spring training), and that there was a good possibility that he would have missed a significant chunk of this season, no matter who he was playing for. His outright bias towards Kent is frightening, and as a journalist, these sorts of things should be avoided. He's been saying since May that Burke should be up here, and Kent should waive his no-trade clause ASAP (this was probably during kent's 24 game hitting streak, mind you). Of course the JK signing hasn't worked out as well as anybody had hoped (last year, he was great when he was healthy), but to waste this much time arguing it in every single article you write, and pinning a large chunk of this team's failures on his signing... is denitiely skewed reasoning due to outright hate of the man. That being said, its the best this one-paper has to offer in terms of an actual insider to the clubhouse, and not just some lackey reporting as a cheerleader/yes man. But, he definitely needs to spend more time arguing for guys like Beltran and Berkman, and less time blaming guys like Kent, who isn't even the biggest paid underachiever on this club.
yeah..you're right. he has never signed anyone. we should go back to the old days where we had great owners like john mcmullen. yeah...the mclane years have been awful for this franchise. and biggio is killing us out there.
i agree...but even more striking, i think, is the bagwell bias. he loves that guy so much, that no matter what his performance, he can't see even moving the guy in the batting order. remember when moving him to the 5 spot was a "slap in the face" according to Justice?
Totally agreed... I was kinda trying to hint at that in the final sentence of my previous post. Not once does he ever mention the huge back-loaded deal that Bagwell signed back in 2000 as a reason why this club has to be tight fiscally. And... judging from his article... he might have a new favorite in Berkman. He's making it look like the Astros laughed in his face, and are offering him peanuts... when in reality, they didn't have to give him a 3-year guaranteed contract back in 02. And with the way the Hidalgo contract blew up in their face, I can understand the Astros not jumping the gun too fast on Berkman. He was gonna get paid big bucks, even if he had faltered this year... and I doubt Drayton wants to see him playing for anybody else (especially since they've got a great business relationship with his dad, who just got Troy Patton to sign with them). Also, how are you supposed to improve the starting rotation, improve the bullpen, AND start paying Berkman big $$$ 2 years before you have to (as the article suggests they should have done)... all at the same time??!? Justice was just trying to find more ways to criticize managment...
One thing he doesn't mention is if the Astros can afford the added payroll. If cuts will need to be made elsewhere to accomodate Beltran's contract, then it might not be a good idea. It's only the "right thing" if it makes the team as a whole better.
Well, he does mention that... thru Beltran's comments. Carlos said that if cuts are made if he signs, then he just simply won't sign. But, the only guys who are going to be making serious big money are Berkman, and Oswalt. And, you gotta keep those two at all costs. Everett will not be cheap, but he won't be expensive. Likewise for Ensberg. Lane is still super cheap. Lamb can be retained for not much $$$, and Lidge is under the cheaper organizational control for another 4 years. It will be swing guys like Wade Miller who may have to be dealt, or let go... which may not be all bad considering his inconsistencies and arm trouble. Then again, when healthy and on top of his game, he's a proven great pitcher... and you can never have too much of that.
But that still doesn't address how much payroll the Astros can afford to take. Can he bump it up to around $100 million? If so, then we should sign Beltran. Otherwise we might be better off getting several playerrs for the same price.
He can play for any team he wants next season. Why on earth would he want to stay here? He has been quoted as saying he would want a guarantee from the Astros that they would do what it takes to win. I don't see that happening next season.
