China to Become World's Largest Economy by 2035, Double US by 2050

It has numerous implications.

Obviously, China will be the world's greatest superpower and American will drop down a notch or two. It will be interesting to see how China leads the world. Will it soften it's stance on many issues? I think as American it will be nice to see another nation villified and hated for a change.

From a environmental stance, China and India will make todays greenhouse emissions look like wistful days. If Global Warming is as serious as some claim, I wouldn't be surprised to see CO2 emissions more than double.

The question is what kind of nation will China become? Will it show that it can represent the world interests and be a more benevolent nation? Will there develop a class of individuals within the country that represent a globally aware view?

I think it will. But ya never know.

 

i'm pretty sure this will never happen, unless they project that the american economy shrinks by quite a bit.

2 words - peak oil.

there's no way the world can sustain that much crude oil usage over a 25-40 year span.

 

I mentioned this before, but if all of China consumed like what Americans consume now, we would need three Earths to sustain them alone. I'm not sure how many more earths are needed for a growing India, Brazil, or SE Asia....

So there's several direct implications to this: change in our standard of living, change in resource allocation, change in materials used in common technology, and/or some form of population collapse.

Green isn't going anywhere, but let the good times roll if you can. It might be your last chance.

 

I REALLY, REALLY have a hard time believing this.

I say this because it seems that the Chinese current economy is built on borrowing from the poor(ridiculously cheap labor) and from the future(pollution, heavy groundwater usage, etc.). And the infrastructure is very lacking.

I think this is just like one of those "projected 10 year economy" we hear every now and then. Remember how we'd be having a huge surplus ever year back in 2000?

 

bottleneck oil

 

i'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but... isnt projecting the same growth rate for the next 20-30yrs disingenous. If anything, growth rates tend to drop as economies mature

 

2035, that is a long time from now.

 

Read it again, it did not say the same growth rate. The report said comparable growth rate to other Asian nations at the same stage of developement like Korea, Japan, etc.

Oil might be a problem, but you never know if other sources of energy such as hydrogen or solar or some other form of energy might replace oil with in the next twenty years.

The biggest obstacle is keeping the country stable and reduce the growth of population as much as possible.

I do not believe China will act like the US when it become the most powerful nation, I doubt China will try to police the rest of the world. I bet this will really anger some people on this bbs.

 

Overpopulation kills the planet.

 

Exactly. So many people believe having babies like rabbits is just fine since it is a human right, but they do not consider what kind of future we are bringing these kids into.

 

hm... population in china is starting to age already. soon enough, the population will stablize and start to decline slowly. unlike india which has no program to stop population growth. i would worrty about india first.

and oil won't be the top source at that time. besides, china has plenty of coal which is the primary source of energy in china anyways (as well as US). china has been the biggest planter of forrest in the world. granted it's not natural forrest, but it's better than nothing. people are realizing environment is important too. the local governments have started to pass rules on a bunch of things to protect the environment. it'll take a while before it matures, but i doubt it's going to get any worse. i mean, if it gets any worse, people can't live there anymore you know.

in 1820, china's GDP was 1/3 of the entire world GDP. i don't think being rich is going to be a problem. the brits are the ones that became the biggest drug dealer in the world and sucked all the wealth over.

 

Assuming the Mayans were wrong...

 

As china gets richer the people will demand democracy.

 

Your all-too-typical defense of China is duly noted, but my post was not intended to be a dig at any particular country. Overpopulation is a worldwide phenomenon.

 

Mayas

 

that is perfectly fine. Everything in its due course.

 

ok, maybe i did sound a bit defensive there. i mean, what do you expect. even though i didn't consider that a dig. i'm just really hopeful at solving the population problem in china. it seems to be working. but we'll see in a decade or two. when my generation (1-child) starts to take care of parents. there maybe social issues with that. but at least the population isn't going up that fast any more.

 

translation; the Chinese economic boom has lifted tens of millions of its citizens out of abject poverty.

An outgrowth of China's economic boom has been an ever-expanding middle class.

The burgeoning middle-class leads to demand for more accommodating infrastructures. This contributes to the increasing domestic demand, as alluded by the article written by Albert Keidel. This robust domestic demand will sustain China's ~10% per annum economic growth for the decades to come.

on a per capita basis, auguably, China's GDP will not surpass the US until next century.

actually, the World Bank and others such as Rand, conduct these type of econometric study on a regular basis.

remember how

• Reagan could never balance the budget, much less generating a surplus.
  • Bush Sr. was worse; his mis-handleing of the economy was the reason that he was fired by the American voters.
    • it took Clinton about 2-3 years to generate a surplus, and continue that economic accomplishment 'til the end of his 2nd term.
      • the sizeable surplus (inherited from the Clinton administration) was pissed away by W in his first 7 months in office .

 

Makes me sort of happy that I will be dead by then....