[Charley Rosen] Yao will need supporting cast in playoff run

Since it's a rare, both objective and detailed analysis on Yao's game by Rosen, I am going out on a limb to give its own thread. The title, though, isn't very ground-breaking.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/6578710

Yao will need supporting cast in playoff run

The game itself wasn't even marginally exciting as the Rockets easily blasted the Raptors, 114-100 on Friday night. Indeed, the contest's most intriguing aspect was the state of Yao Ming.

With five games under his belt since his return from a broken leg, his progress (or lack thereof) will have a dramatic impact on Houston's destiny.

Yao vs. the Raptors
MIN FGM-A FTM-A REBS A ST TO BS PTS
33 8-18 7-8 12 3 0 3 1 23

Let's take a closer look.

Offense

Yao was defended by Rasho Nesterovic for a total of 13 minutes and had to battle for every positional advantage in the lane. On Yao's very first possession, the sturdy Nesterovic pushed him off the left box, but the bigger man just kept going as he caught the incoming pass and launched a turnaround jumper (TAJ) that included a slight fade. The shot missed. But the sequence evidenced the last time that Yao let Nesterovic uproot him.

Here's what else Yao did against Nesterovic:
# Missed a TAJ from 10 feet.
# Beat Nesterovic baseline, but turned the corner so slowly that Toronto's big center caught Yao from behind and harried him into missing the layuup.
# Posted on the right box, waiting patiently for his cutters to clear, then turned and bagged a short TAJ.
# Posted on the right box, dribbled once into the middle, then hit a lefty baby-hook.
# Posted again, then reacted to T.J. Ford's digging by whipping an assist pass to Rafer Alston, who popped a 3-ball.
# Overpowered Nesterovic's attempt to box him off the boards and blatantly pushed Rasho until he was too far under the basket to contest a possible rebound. (Tracy McGrady's shot went in.)
# Reacted to a swift double-team by making a quick and accurate pass back out — to no advantage.

In other words, when working mostly straight-up versus the 7-0, 265-pound Nesterovic, Yao was effective, but hardly dominanting.

His domination occurred only when he was defended by weaklings — either Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani or Jorge Garbajosa. Except for one occasion when Yao failed to securely seal Garbajosa and the entry pass was stolen, the tallest player in the NBA had his way against this lightweight trio. TAJs, baby hooks, layups, put-backs and a variety of pedestrian dunks. It should be noted, however, that Yao was slow in loading up his TAJ and the quick-jumping Bosh actually harried him into missing a 10-footer.

Even though Yao was extremely slow moving north-to-south, he made a bee-line for the shadow of the basket whenever he trailed the ball in a broken field. By so doing, he always bulled his way into superb position and rendered his defender helpless.

Yao often secured the same prime real estate when he executed simple cross-cuts through the lane.

None of his made shots were especially difficult. In fact, his positioning and his passing were the highlights of his offense. One pass in particular — a drop pass to a cutting Luther Head — was magnificent.

Since Yao spent most of his time in the low post, he set very few screens. In the past, Jeff Van Gundy had frequently required Yao to play more at the high post, set screens, and only then move into the pivot. By limiting Yao's sphere of influence, Van Gundy has saved his big man from expending unnecessary energy. (Yao's mileage was further reduced when he was positioned in the backcourt whenever the Rockets shot free throws.)

The Raps did try to double-team Yao on numerous occasions, but efficient passes, and even more efficient perimeter shooting, quickly trumped this strategy.

Two of Yao's turnovers occurred when he snatched an offensive rebound, then brought the ball to waist level as he gathered himself to attack the basket — and he was easily stripped. The other turnover resulted from his being smacked on his forearm as he threw an outlet pass. This last TO should have been put in the referees' column.

Understandably, his touch was slightly off. Yet Yao was as strong as ever, and a bit more aggressive. And with the dearth of bully-boy centers in the West, he should have little difficulty scoring as many points — and as easily — as he did before his injury.

DEFENSE

Yao showed long and wide, but was in full retreat on screen/rolls. When Ford was on the court, Yao's giving up of so much ground was harmless simply because Ford is an atrocious shooter. But when Derrick Martin was operating the S/R, the Rockets were stung by 3-of-5 long-range bombs. Houston tried to compensate for Yao's lack of range so far from the basket by sending the nearest wing to help on the far side of the screen.

Yao also yielded several open shots to Nesterovic, Bosh and Kris Humphries when Toronto ran screen/fades. Again, it was Ford's lack of consistency from the perimeter that prevented the Raps from attacking Yao's primary defensive weakness.

In the paint, Yao was much more of a force on defense. He rotated adequately and held his ground on several plays so that cutters and ball-penetrators had to use a great-circle route to get across the lane. And, in addition to his blocked shot, his long arms and huge body were responsible for intimidating four more shots.

He really only made only one egregious mistake on defense. Leaving his feet to try and block a driving Ford, Yao was out of position when Ford slipped an assist pass to Bosh.

Effectively guarding opponents who can shoot from mid-range and/or face-up and drive will be a significant problems for Yao in the playoffs. (Think how much trouble he'll have against Amare Stoudemire and Tim Duncan. But doesn't everybody?)

The real key to Yao's effectiveness is the Rockets' ability to knock down their outside shots. That means T-Mac, Alston, Head and Shane Battier. If the shots are falling, the defense will be stretched, double-downs will be costly, and Yao will have ample time and space to score points by the dozen.

Houston's Mr. Inside is just about back to where he was. Now it's up to Messrs. Outside to do their job. If this scenario does indeed play out, then the Rockets have enough firepower and enough fire-extinguishing power to be a formidable opponent for whomever they might encounter in the playoffs.