Chad Ford's Tier System

hooroo · Jun 19, 2007

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To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, several teams who have been very successful in the draft employ what I call a "Tier System" of ranking players. Instead of getting an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, they group players, based on overall talent level, into tiers. Then, the team ranks the players inside each tier based on team need.

This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.

So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several NBA GMs and scouts who employ this system for their teams, I've put together these tiers. (Because the teams do not want to divulge their draft rankings publicly, the teams have been left anonymous.)...

TIER 1 Greg Oden, Kevin Durant

Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Oden among GMs, but everyone agrees both players have superstar potential and are clearly the consensus top two in the draft.

TIER 2 Corey Brewer, Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright

Note: One team expanded this tier to include all of Tier 3, essentially making Tier 2 the third through 12th picks, but most everyone else made a cut right before the players in Tier 3. I’d also note that there was near consensus that Horford is the third-best player in the draft.

TIER 3 Spencer Hawes, Joakim Noah, Al Thornton, Julian Wright

Note: Tier 3 represents the final four players in the top 12. Every team I spoke with had the same 12 players in the top 12. That’s a pretty amazing consensus for this deep in the draft. It also shows the depth of the draft itself. Last year, Tiers 1, 2 and 3 consisted of a total of seven players.

TIER 4 Javaris Crittenton, Acie Law, Rodney Stuckey, Nick Young, Thaddeus Young

Note: There was a clear preference for the Youngs in Tier 4, with one team saying its Tier 3 was expanded to include both players. Not everyone had Crittenton or Stuckey in Tier 4; some had them in Tier 5.

TIER 5 Morris Almond, DeVon Hardin, Josh McRoberts, Gabe Pruitt, Jason Smith Tiago Splitter, Sean Williams

Note: The consensus really starts to break up here. Some have Smith and Williams ranked higher. Some have McRoberts and Hardin ranked lower.

TIER 6 Arron Afflalo, Marco Belinelli, Derrick Byars, Daequan Cook, Glen Davis, Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol, Taurean Green, Petteri Koponen, Marcus Williams

Note: If you do the math, 36 players are on the list. Why 36 guys for 30 slots? I included in Tier 6 every player that a team told me was in its top 30. I suspect had I polled every team, this number would have expanded to around 40 players.
Click to expand...

Devon Hardin pulled out while Morris Almond and Sean Williams are looking out of reach. Tier 6 would the pool of players the Rockets are looking at if this proves to be accurate.

htownbball · Jun 19, 2007

some euros may jump into the next tier to save money. always happens.

A_3PO · Jun 20, 2007

I miss the days back when I knew most all of the top players available for the draft. It's so hard to keep up with underclassmen and Euros I gave up.

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Chad Ford's Tier System

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