CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend (CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote. McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters. This week's polling continues to show voters waiting to decide about Sarah Palin (see yesterday's poll on Palin). But in interviewing done yesterday, 83 percent of registered voters said that spouse and family of a candidate will not affect their votes. more here: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml
that's a great poll for the mccain camp. but it only took 700 voters, a very small sample compared to the gallup or rassmussean, which takes into account around 3000 voters.
nope. he hit the 50 mark on the 2 most reliable polls (b/c a larger sample), but went down 1 on the gallup. he's still at 50 on rass poll.
http://electoral-vote.com/ Updated today, polls in Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio: It shows that Obama increased his lead in Minnesota (from 47-42 to 53-41) and Iowa (from 48-42 to 55-40) and in Ohio turned a slim McCain lead (43-42) into a slim Obama lead (47-45).
i think these polls are more informative. national polls are nice and all and quite important. but this election is going down to the battleground states. ohio will be a HUGE state.
That's a great poll for a small town... but we elitists only trust polls of large metropolitan areas like... uh... say... uh... San Francisco.
It may turn out that way - but it's certainly not right now. Here's the state of the race: That's the electoral votes of all states that are outside of the margin of error (5% or so). Obama has 260 EV's in that group. The tossup states are: NV, CO, MT, SD, ND, OH, VA, NH, NC, and FL There are a total of 102 electoral votes there. Obama needs 9 to win. That means if Obama wins just Colorado and loses all of the others he wins. That tells you what McCain is facing. Ohio could be important - but right now it is in the sense that if he wins OH or CO or VA or NC or FL (or NV+NH), he wins. It *is* critical to McCain though. To be fair, I would add Indiana (listed as GOP) and Michigan (listed as Dem) to the tossups, but that's the official count at Electoral Vote. Despite what the media says, this race is not currently close if you look at the state breakdowns. Lots of things can change and it could become that way, but it's not right now.
To be fair, those MN, IA, and OH polls were conducted on Tuesday. They really wouldn't show any convention bump from the RNC, but a bump (or lack of one) from the Palin announcement probably did factor into those numbers. I think that holds true for the CBS poll as well.
but let's be real, the only #s that matter is the ones after 11/4. right now, obama is sitting very well. and it's reported that the palin pick has energized the democrats so much they raised just as much money as the republicans in the past few days. obama is sitting well. but i love the drama right now. republicans def. know how to make the game very fun.
This is true remember. These polls generally take 3 to 4 days to complete and the ones that will show the true collective bump are generally initiated one to two days after a respective convention is over. That is why it took four to five days after the DNC was over to actually see the extent of Obama's DNC bump. I would pretty much look for the same as far as a timeline goes if you are going to be on the lookout for the RNC bump as well.
I would add Penn to the Michigan camp as in play. McCain could possibly win losing both but winning Ohio--but a lot would have to fall right. Overall I think the national polls are going to be pretty solid bell weathers for Ohio, Mich, Penn, Florida, and Virginia. If McCain loses 3 of those 5 it is over, if he wins 3 of 5 (like Bush did twice), anyone's game. Hopefully Obama & Biden (and maybe the Clintons, please) can focus on those 5. Maybe Bill R can work hard for CO, NV and his home state.
Given the fact that most of these polls are operated by known far left wing organizations, CBS certainly falls into that category, the numbers saying they are tied really means that McCain has a lead and will get a great bounce after tonight's speech and take the lead all the way to the White House.
I think Obama has a better chance of winning CO than OH or FL, especially with all the ground game people he signed up there last week. And if he does win CO, then McCain needs *4* out of the 5 you listed to win. Winning OH/FL/VA (the three most likely) still ends up a loss for McCain. He'd need to get MI or PA to pull it off. I don't see him winning PA, but it's certainly possible. If he does, though, I'm thinking he won all the battleground states and wins comfortably.
well it IS easy to change the numbers when you are dealing with boiling down millions of people opinions into two % numbers. You have to be pretty freaking ethical to do it correctly.
