IF it is true that McCain, who is trailing in Michigan by a RCP average of 7.0%, is pulling out of the state and ceding it to Obama... And IF it is true that Pennsylvania is out of play, seeing as how Obama has never trailed there and now leads by a RCP average of 7.9%... ... can McCain still win? The answer is yes. But only if he pitches a total shutout everywhere else. That means he needs to win all the following states: CO, FL, OH, VA, NC, MO, IN. PLUS he needs to win either NH or NV. Here's how those states look as of today, according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics: Colorado - Obama +5 Florida - Obama +3 Ohio - Obama +2 Virginia - Obama +2.4 North Carolina - Obama +0.5 Missouri - McCain +1.7 Indiana - McCain +2.2 If Obama wins ANY of the above states, he wins the election. If he loses them ALL, McCain still needs NH or NV. Here's how those states look: New Hampshire - Obama +1.3 Nevada - Obama +0.5 Even if Obama loses every one of the McCain must-wins, if he wins either of the above two states, he still wins. This race is over. And it will not be close. Here comes the landslide I predicted months ago. God bless America.
If Indiana goes blue, there is literally no way McCain can win without every single state I listed PLUS Michigan or Pennsylvania. I'm rooting for you.
Nothing is over. There's still a little over a month. Anything can and will happen in that time. I just hope the Obama/Biden campaign realize that and continue on as they have been. Even though McCain has allegedly pulled out of Michigan, they should still keep a close eye on it and make an appearance or 2 between now and November. Over-confidence is a killer with this much time to go.
Thread title is a poorly worded one. Of course he CAN win, but I agree with your analysis that the odds are heavily against him now. The economy blowing up has sunk his campaign and Palin not living up the hype has stunted any gains she was/could have given him.
Assuming what you say is true, what is Obama's best strategy. Just keep pounding two to four of those states McCAin needs or to keep them all in play so that McCain has to stretch further?
Based on those numbers, if the states track with the national numbers, then a 5 pt move nationally would swing all those states to McCain. We've had more than a 5pt national move in the last week alone. When the economy isn't being talked about as a crisis with a new bank failing on the national news everyday, McCain will regain a little bit of ground. Then if there's a big international incident, he could easily gain more ground. Five weeks really is an eternity in politics.
Regardless of the seemingly insurmountable lead Obama now enjoys, you can be sure they will do exactly that. First, for the reason you stated. (Though you have to love Obama's current position, obviously anything could happen.) Second, because Obama/Biden would love to come into office with a clear mandate. It is looking increasingly likely that they will get one. It is also looking increasingly likely that this race will not be close by any measure. If things don't change (and change radically) between now and election day, expect to hear Obama announced as the next president the minute the last polls close.
I think Obama's best strategy is the one he's been using. Continue to campaign, and campaign hard, in every state he has any chance of winning. And force McCain into tough decisions about which states to give up on. Obama, like all presidential candidates, badly wants a mandate. It is possible for him to win over 350 electoral votes. Couple that incredible mandate with a Democratic Congress and, though he will face enormous problems when taking office, he will be free of political obstacles. He needs to do everything he can to win as many states as possible.
Obama is starting to run lots of ads here, and they are calling me now, I told them I would definately vote him. I never saw a single Kerry ad last time here or heard from one of his supporters. The voter registration just went up 6% last month and it is still going on. I hope this means lots of new voters want to throw out the people who caused the major crisis in our economy and end this crazy "war" in Iraq.
A bunch of things can still happen. That said, if the dynamic of the race does not appreciably change within two weeks, it's Obama. By the way, I think TJ is blowing smoke. The optimum time to drop a bomb on Obama would have been this week. He's surging, McCain is tanking, early voting has started, and Palin is a joke. If the purveyors of sludge had anything, it would come out now... not only to hurt Obama and maybe change the dynamic, but to cover up the news cycles that the VP debate will produce.
Emphasis added. Surely something with Georgia can be cooked up. Also just about time for Bin Laden to make a video appearance. Doesn't he usually show up to help the GOP?
TJ is always blowing smoke. But I actually think if you have a surprise, it's best to wait until a couple of weeks before the election. You want to hit someone without giving them time to effectively respond or for the impact to dissipate. For example, the two most effective things McCain did - the celebrity stuff and announcing Palin - had dramatic impacts the put him into the lead, but that faded after a few weeks. But if the election was shortly after those things, it would have had a real impact and there's nothing Obama could have done.
I completely agree, if there's a big international incident. If there isn't, I really don't see what would both reverse momentum and reverse it to the tune of 5% nationally. Palin, who was the only factor that made the race briefly competitive, has turned out to be a net liability. She could change that tonight, but I hardly think it's likely. And, if she doesn't change it tonight, she doesn't really have another opportunity to do so. The economy went from being the number one issue on voters' minds (a thing that clearly favors Obama) to being the overwhelming number one issue. I agree that anything could happen but, barring an unforeseen international incident, what can you imagine might happen that would be big enough to reverse the rapidly growing trend and turn things completely around? And in which states would that manifest? Even though Obama has small leads now in FL, OH, VA and NC, I'm not counting on any of those states. McCain can have them. We don't need them. But he does and they will require constant, hard work and big dollars on his part. Money he needs to be spending in Colorado. Not to mention IN and MO. And none of the polls cited in my OP has made adjustments for what is widely believed to be a strong advantage in organization and ground game in all swing states, a strong advantage in registering new voters (who are largely not represented in polls) and a strong advantage in cell phone only users (who are not polled). All I'm saying is that, while yes anything could happen, the odds and circumstances currently favor an Obama landslide over anything resembling a competitive race. And it's not even close.
How many the race is over predictions are we gonna get on this board? Seriously a few weeks ago everyone was calling it for Obama. A year ago it was all but Clinton's.
A year ago I was predicting an Obama landslide. I have never wavered in that prediction. Just lucky, I guess. On the bright side, it looks like you won't have to worry about those scaaarrrry race riots you predicted in the case of an Obama loss.
How many times has Batman prematurely ejaculated after looking at polls? Literally too many to count... Someone go find his spankerchief, looks like he's got another mess on his hands... We've got a very long ways to go in this election, friends. With the news cycle being shortened to a matter of hours, it makes no sense to drop the neutron bomb on Snobama just yet. Be patient... HO HO HO
