Don't know enough about the poll to comment on its accuracy or bias, although the pollsters seem to have a pretty good track record. in a survey of likely voters, and excluding Nader, Kerry leads Bush by one point in the state, 46% to 45%. http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
WOW. If this holds, Nader will surely draw crucial votes away from Forbes Kerry, resulting in a mammoth Bush landslide in the electoral college, should he win CA. This is more great polling news for Bush! FOUR MORE YEARS Max, the answer to your question is no.
Not really. I mean, it is a lot of play since so many political races come down to a smaller margin than that, but as polls go, that's not an uncommon margin of error. It's interesting to me that they can scientifically extrapolate to a population of millions by only asking about 600 people. But supposedly they can.
ok..thanks...i couldn't remember from my stats classes back in college..i was thinking that anything over 3% was problematic.
That's about what we learned in my stats class, too, but apparently things have changed since then. I see margins of error about that big all the time in political polls. Of course, we don't know how accurate such polls really are and have no real way of finding out at present (since if the election results are different, it can just mean that opinions changed since the poll was taken).
I think California is in play. Bush should not spend money in places like Michigan, Ohio, Fla. W. Va. and spend it all in CA. Bush has real shot at winning it. Sure he does... Go for it.
Yes. With California and Texas, he's almost there. Big ad buys now could pay dividends in November. The time is right to invest in California.
Agreed, the same goes for Nader....if Ralph Nader can't do well in California or Texas his campaign will be sunk. He should concentrate on the disenfranchised migrant workers of the San Joaquin Valley and in the high unemployment region of the lower Rio Grande Valley; these are the little people who want to have a voz that Nader was born to protect. Not to mention the out of work p*rn actors of the San Fernando Valley, who are having their livelihoods threatened due to inadequate occupational health & safety standards. Nader is not going to make a difference in small time states. Ralph, use your head, and concentrate your efforts on your base. STAY TRUE
This is not surprising to me. I am in CA and I've noticed alot more people talking about voting for Bush than Kerry around here. I am in San Diego however and being a Military town that probably has a huge effect. Honestly, if Kerry loses California, he has Grey Dufas (I mean Davis) to thank. Nothing has changed politics in this state as much as that man. So many people have rethought their stance since he was in office and it is going to play a huge role in the election come November.
On an interesting side note isn't one of California's most populous counties planning on defying the CA Sec. of State and using those touch screen voting machines. Those same machines that are said to be unreliable, susceptable to tampering and made by a company with a CEO who is a strong Bush supporter. Kinda makes you wonder.
Judging by their logo thematics, "Survey USA" is a subsidiary of In and Out Burger. It is nice to see rabid Bush 2004 folks squeezing some reliable and improtant good news from this week. Seriously, if anyone can pull something enjoyable from any random corner of the internet right about now, please be my guest. It's been a real nice six weeks, generally speaking; this thing about California suddenly becoming Bush country is just part of the indisputable Neoconservaive Momentum of Spring 2004, which history will surely judge as a renaissance period for the United States. Peace. Security. Prosperity. Liberty. Renewal of natural resources. Genuine political discourse. Making government honest and accountable again. Scientific Advancement. Liberating the oppressed. Making the world safer. A veritable golden age of foreign diplomacy and domestic progress. Frankly, it is a lovely time to be alive, and from my vantage point, Californians are -- finally -- joining in on the parade, instead of being the perennial Grand Ol' Party Poopers. I mean, damn, if California is finally in... I suppose he wasn't just whistling Dixie with that whole "Uniter not a Divider" thing. Just ask most of this country and the rest of the world. Are we united? According to the good folks at In and Out Burger, not quite yet, but we're getting there. Meanwhile, many of us who perseverate on the idea that maybe we need new leadership -- aka "Very Depraved and Very Stupid Liberal Elitists" -- still manage to flail in around our ignorance-induced worries, no matter what. Like for instance the dilemma that good political news for us also happens to be incredibly bad news for the good of the country and humankind. That bothers us. Why? because we <i>want</i> to feel sick to our stomachs when we read the paper or watch the news. It is just the kind of people we are. We allow a flimsy intellect to attach itself to a selfish, morose, wrongheaded skew of indisputable facts. Facts like, "thing are going great and they're only getting better," as reported by Survery USA. Those fringe media outlets like the New York Times and CNN have brainwashed us because we are weak. And lost. And morally corrupt. And selfish. Oh well, maybe when Bush Fever hits my town I will pull my head out and see the sunshine like the rest of the people in this state. Let the west coast conversion claim me now.
It's not a conspiracy theory, Einstein, it's a proven fact that Diebold machines are easily susceptible to tampering. As you surely know this was (and still is, I imagine) a giant concern among Diebold's programmers as evidenced by many internal memos. Diebold management, on the other hand, encouraged their worried programmers to consider the gaping holes in the back door (insert joke here) as a 'feature.' But you already know this. Now, whether you neoconmen have been monkeying with them to prop up assclowns like your boy Saxby, why, that's open for spekkilashin.
