Bush SUpport Hits New Low/ Gen. Sanchez Replaced

Poll shows new low on approval on Iraq
Support on nearly every aspect of the Iraq conflict has declined


By Dan Balz and Richard Morin

Updated: 10:17 a.m. ET May 25, 2004

Public approval of President Bush's handling of the conflict in Iraq has dropped to its lowest point with growing fears that the United States is bogged down and rising criticism of Bush's handling of the prison abuse scandal, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

Support for Bush on virtually every aspect of the Iraq conflict has declined in the past month as the administration has battled insurgents and grappled with the expanding investigation into the treatment of Iraqi prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison.

The poll underscored the political challenges that confronted Bush as he went on national television last night to defend his policy and outline the steps that will lead to a transfer of governing authority to a new Iraqi government on June 30.

Bush's overall job approval rating declined to 47 percent, the lowest the Post-ABC News polls have recorded since he took office, with 50 percent saying they disapprove. Just four in 10 Americans gave the president positive marks for his handling of Iraq, the lowest since he launched the conflict in March 2003.

On the question of whether U.S. forces should remain in Iraq until that country is stabilized or withdraw to avoid further casualties, 58 percent said they favored staying there, down from 66 percent last month. The percentage favoring a troop withdrawal reached 40 percent, up 7 percentage points in the past month.

Despite Bush's declining approval ratings, he runs even when pitted against Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), his Democratic challenger. Asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 46 percent of registered voters said Bush, 46 percent said Kerry and 4 percent said independent Ralph Nader. Without Nader factored into the competition, Kerry led Bush 49 percent to 47 percent. A month ago, Bush led Kerry 48 to 43 percent with Nader at 6 percent.

free video

1/32/33/3


• Powell on Iraq handover
May 25: Secretary of State Colin Powell discusses the upcoming transfer of power in Iraq during an interview with "Today" host Katie Couric.


• Gen. Clarke weighs in
May 25: Former Democratic presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark offers his opinions on President Bush's speech.


• A 5-step plan
May 25: President Bush delivered a prime-time speech announcing a five-step plan for Iraqi sovereignty. NBC's Norah O'Donnell reports.




When matched against Kerry on issues of national security and terrorism, Bush was seen as a stronger leader and more reliable in keeping the country safe and more trusted in dealing with a national crisis. Bush also bested Kerry on who is better equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism, although Bush's margins have declined in the past month.

Bush's political standing has been weakened by an erosion in support among independents and by signs of potential disaffection among his typically rock-solid Republican base. Democrats continue to give the president low marks across the board.

A month ago Bush's job approval rating stood at 51 percent, and virtually all of the decline since then is attributable to a drop of 7 percentage points among Republicans. Just 20 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents approve of how he is handling the presidency.

On Iraq, a majority of Democrats (87 percent) and independents (58 percent) give Bush negative marks. Among members of his party, the president's support, while strong, declined 8 percentage points over the last month, to 75 percent.

On the issue of withdrawing U.S. forces, 53 percent of Democrats favor withdrawal, which puts them at odds with Kerry, while more than four in 10 independents and one-fifth of Republicans say they prefer getting out to staying indefinitely. The number of independents and Republicans favoring withdrawal rose about 10 percentage points each in the past month.

The president received higher marks for managing the war on terrorism, although the 58 percent approval rating in the new poll marked the first time Bush has dropped below 60 percent on that question since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Bush's approval rating on Iraq is now lower than his economic approval rating: Forty-four percent said they approved of how he has handled the economy, compared with 54 percent who disapproved. The last two employment reports have shown significant new job creation, and although Bush's economic ratings remain negative, they are not as low as in March.

Rising gasoline prices represent a potential economic problem for Bush. Almost two in three Americans said rising prices have caused some kind of financial hardship, but fewer than two in five said the hardship was serious. Those surveyed apportioned the blame relatively evenly among the administration, U.S. oil companies and the oil-producing countries.

A majority of those surveyed also expressed optimism that the situation in Iraq will be better a year from now, but in all other respects, the public expressed pessimism about the U.S. mission there.

Those surveyed remained evenly divided over whether the war in Iraq has been worth the cost, with 48 percent saying it was and 50 percent saying it was not. But 65 percent said they believe the United States is bogged down there, 57 percent said the United States is not making significant progress in establishing a democratic government and 58 percent said Bush does not have a clear plan for Iraq.

Disapproval of Bush's handling of the prisoner-abuse scandal rose dramatically in the past month, with 57 percent giving him negative marks and 36 percent giving him positive marks. A month ago, as the scandal was first unfolding, a plurality (48 percent to 35 percent) said they approved of the way he was dealing with it. Disapproval jumped sharply among independents and Republicans as well as among Democrats. Three in five independents give Bush negative marks on the prison scandal as do almost one-third of Republicans, and three-quarters of all Democrats.

When asked to compare Bush and Kerry, those surveyed said they had more confidence in Kerry on economic issues and more confidence in Bush on national security issues. Bush's greatest advantage came in the war on terrorism, where he led Kerry by 52 percent to 39 percent. On Iraq, Bush led 48 percent to 42 percent, while on the economy, Kerry led 48 percent to 43 percent. In all cases, the public viewed Bush less favorably than in the Post-ABC poll of a month ago.

Those surveyed also see Bush as a strong leader, with 62 percent saying that characterization fit the president to 52 percent who said it applied to Kerry. Three in five said Bush can be trusted in a crisis, while 46 percent said Kerry could be trusted. A bare majority (52 percent) said Bush has made the country safer; 39 percent said Kerry will do so if he is elected.

Three in four said they see Bush as a politician who takes a position and sticks to it; four in 10 said the same of Kerry. On the other hand, while 49 percent said Bush is willing to listen to different points of view, 69 percent said that of Kerry. Kerry scored higher than Bush on which one understands the problems of ordinary Americans.

On the question of which candidate shares their values, the public was closely divided -- 49 percent said Bush shared their values while 48 percent said the same of Kerry, a finding that reflects the divided electorate.

A total of 1,005 randomly selected adults were interviewed May 20-23. The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.

© 2004 The Washington Post Company

****************************************************


Top general in Iraq to be replaced


Sanchez set to replaced on July 1, officials tell NBC; Pentagon mum

Alex Wong / Getty Images file
Defense officials told NBC News Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will be replaced at the end of next month.
NBC, MSNBC and news services
Updated: 7:06 a.m. ET May 25, 2004

WASHINGTON - Defense officials told NBC News the Defense Department will replace Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez as the top U.S. military officer in Iraq at the end of next month.

They stressed that the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal was not a factor in the deliberations.

Defense officials said Sanchez, who became the top U.S. general in Iraq last June, would be replaced on July 1, when the United States hands over power to an interim Iraqi government.

The candidate most likely to take over is Gen. George Casey, the Army’s vice chief of staff, who would assume the new position of unified commander of military forces in Iraq, they said.

Bryan Whitman, a spokesman for the Defense Department, would neither confirm nor deny the report. “If we had something like that to announce, we would. Any speculation prior to an announcement would be irresponsible,” he said.

On Monday, defense officials told NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski that they wanted to have a four-star general in command of Multi-National Force Iraq, responsible for the broad direction of U.S. military operations.

Sanchez, who has three stars, was considered for the new position, but President Bush would first have to nominate him for a fourth star, which is subject to confirmation by the Senate.

The officials, who spoke to NBC News on condition of anonymity, said military officials concluded that it would be too complicated to go through that process in the middle of the war in Iraq.

Planned switch
Casey, who already has four stars, would not have to go through Senate confirmation.

The officials said the switch had been planned for some time and was not a result of the scandal over the mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners at the notorious Abu Ghraib detention facility outside Baghdad. But they acknowledged that it would have made Sanchez’s confirmation for a fourth star problematic.

The officials said Sanchez would still be nominated for a fourth star and would be transferred to a different command, but they said the prisoner abuse scandal could complicate that process, too, to the point that they would consider withholding his nomination.


While defense officials cast any potential replacement of Sanchez as routine, the decision comes at a delicate time in Iraq, where U.S. forces are struggling to contain a Shiite Muslim rebellion a little more than a month before the United States is to hand over authority to an interim Iraqi government.

Sanchez was ensnared in the prison abuse scandal after The Washington Post reported that a military lawyer stated at an open hearing April 2 that Capt. Donald J. Reese told him that Sanchez and other senior military officers were aware of the abuse at the prison and that Sanchez was present at some of the interrogations.


The U.S. military said in a statement Sunday that “this report is false.” It said Sanchez stood by his testimony before congressional committees that he was unaware of the abuses until he ordered an investigation into the allegations in January.

Sanchez and two other generals were summoned to testify last week before a Senate committee on the Abu Ghraib scandal, in which U.S. forces physically and sexually abused Iraqi detainees at a prison that once was a center of torture under ousted President Saddam Hussein.

During his testimony, Sanchez took responsibility for the abuse because it happened while he was the commander in Iraq.

Maj. Gen. Antonio Taguba’s investigation into the abuse did not directly criticize Sanchez, but it found fault with an order he issued in November giving authority at the facility to a military intelligence unit. Some of the Army military police charged in the case have said military intelligence personnel recommended that they use harsher measures to “soften up” prisoners.

NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski and Campbell Brown in Washington, MSNBC.com’s Alex Johnson, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

 

Reversed. They have Kerry tied at worst ( Nader included) and at best Kerry leads by 2.

Still, nothing to write home about. I am gaining some respect for Kerry, but still don't like him.

 

Strikes me as a political opportunist. Not all that commanding. While I agree that much of his 'flip-flopping' has really been the fact that he 'does nuance', and has a slightly more complex vision than Bush, I also agree that at times he does seem to drift according to the political winds of the moment. Didn't like his support of the invasion, but also hate how he hasn't simply clarifiied his stance as having believed people who misled him. Seems somewhat stiff and lacking personalibility.

Not too much I really dislike, more just that there's not all that much that really grabs me either.