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Bush rises to the challenge of meeting his low expectations ...

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by No Worries, Jul 19, 2006.

  1. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    The White House: The Legacy on the Line

    The showdown in the Middle East provides the toughest test yet of the pillars of President Bush's foreign policy.

    By Michael Hirsh
    Newsweek

    July 24, 2006 issue - The Bush team didn't see this one coming. Maybe it was simply that too many other volcanoes were erupting at the same time. Iraq was tipping closer to civil war, Iran was getting more brazen by the day and North Korea's missiles were roiling East Asia. The president, meanwhile, was preoccupied with what would likely be a testy G8 summit hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. True, the two top U.S. Mideast envoys—David Welch and Elliott Abrams—were in the region when hostilities began. But they had been reassured by Lebanese contacts that Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader, didn't plan to "stir things up" while Hamas and Israel contended over a kidnapped Israeli corporal, according to a senior U.S. diplomat who would divulge the details only if he remained anonymous. "You had six and a half years of, if not calm, basically a stable deterrence between Hizbullah and Israel," the official told NEWSWEEK. "I did not expect this at all."

    If so, he was badly misled, and so was the president—which is one reason Iran and Syria were quickly suspected of acting as outside agitators. En route to Russia, Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reacted swiftly to contain the war, although they actively backed Israel's right to continue its offensive against Hizbullah. The president, aboard Air Force One, made a round of calls to Arab allies, mainly Egypt and Jordan, pleading the case that Hizbullah's breach of the border was a clear violation of international law. Bush wanted the Arab leaders to know that he was urging Israel to avoid any action that would topple the Lebanese government—and allow Syria to take back control of its neighbor. But in return he urged them to pressure Hizbullah at an emergency Arab League summit in Cairo. In an exclusive interview with NEWSWEEK, Bush said he told the Arab leaders: "Let's make sure this meeting is not the usual condemnation of Israel, because if that's the case it obscures the real culprit"—Hizbullah and Hamas.

    To Bush's delight, key U.S. allies offered support. The Saudis issued a statement implicitly blaming Hizbullah for the hostilities, saying "it is necessary to make a distinction between legitimate resistance [to occupation] and irresponsible adventurism adopted by certain elements within the state." Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah II, in Cairo, echoed that view in a joint statement.

    In the longer run, however, it is the calls Bush didn't—or couldn't—make that might mean the difference in containing this new Mideast conflict. As part of his policy of isolating terror-supporting groups and nations, the Bush administration has no relationship with any of the other parties at war or the states behind them. That apparently means no dialogue, even through back channels, with Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas. Senior U.S. officials also said Bush and Rice had no intention of appointing a special envoy at this time. (Welch, having conducted all-day meetings with Israeli officials and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, took off on a previously scheduled trip to Libya over the weekend.) As a result, the president must watch and hope while his whole Mideast legacy—his goal of transforming a region that is the primary source for Islamist terrorism—stands at risk. Also on the line is his strategy of isolating Iran, as tensions mounted between Washington and Europe over Israel's action. "Usually in the past, whenever there was a crisis in the Mideast, the U.S. would immediately dispatch a high-level envoy," said Imad Moustapha, the Syrian ambassador to Washington, confirming that his government had received no U.S. contacts except a request for visas for Americans fleeing Lebanon to Damascus. "This time the only thing the United States is doing is blaming parties, assigning responsibility. There's nothing else."

    That's not quite true. U.S. diplomats are working hard to keep Israelis from killing innocent Lebanese, despite the call by some Israeli hard-liners to make the strikes "Biblical" in severity, according to the senior U.S. diplomat. "The Israelis intend to bruise Hizbullah, and that's probably a good thing. I don't think there should be call for a ceasefire right now," he said. "But we're saying [the strikes] shouldn't be unbridled and promiscuous." In effect, Bush is asking Israel to blunt its own version of the "Bush doctrine," which holds countries accountable for the terror groups in their midst. The reason is that the infant democracy of Lebanon is one of Bush's great hopes as a regional model. "In this case we don't hold Lebanon responsible," Welch told NEWSWEEK in a phone interview from Jerusalem. "We distinguish between the [Prime Minister Fouad] Siniora-led government and Hizbullah. And that's why the president talked about defending democracy in Lebanon."

    The other part of the U.S. strategy, Welch said, is to prevent Nasrallah from turning his would-be alliance with Hamas over captured Israeli prisoners into a united front, with Iran and Syria behind him. (Just before Hizbullah attacked, Hamas and Israel were close to a prisoner-exchange deal, brokered by Egypt. Cairo later complained privately to the Americans that it believed Nasrallah, Iran and Syria pressured Hamas to back out.) "It's to make sure we don't give the Iranians and Mr. Nasrallah, along with his subcontractor, Khaled Meshaal [the exiled Hamas leader in Syria], what they want, which is to link the two things," said Welch. "I don't know if that'll be possible or not, but it should be. Gaza should be addressed and solved on its merit."

    The question is, will the Arab Street buy that argument? U.S. officials are closely watching public opinion among the Lebanese, who until now have had reason to be thankful to Washington. America, along with France, forced Syria to withdraw its Army from Lebanon, Damascus's longtime client state, after the suspicious assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri last year. (One drawback: Syrian-supported Hizbullah was elected to the new Lebanese Parliament, which Israel is holding partly responsible.) "Now the administration is confronted with a situation in which Israelis are blasting the moderate anti-Syrian Lebanese government," says Aaron Miller, a former top U.S. Mideast envoy now at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. "This whole operation is a recruitment poster for anti-Israel and anti-American sentiment." A senior Lebanese official, who insisted on anonymity because of his sensitive ties with Washington, said U.S. pressure on the Israelis was marginal at best. "In practice, what they're saying to the Israelis is, instead of blowing up a bridge with five bombs, make it four bombs," he said bitterly.

    Bush knows all too well that the two major agendas of his presidency—antiterrorism and the promotion of democracy—are in danger of colliding with each other in Lebanon. Not surprisingly, says a senior Israeli official, his country is getting mixed signals from Washington. "We're getting support, and we're getting requests to tone [it] down. But no pressure at this point." No doubt the Israelis have reminded the administration that they warned Washington last year it was rushing into Palestinian elections too quickly—that instant democracy would only empower Hamas. The warning was brushed off by the Bush team.

    But even the Israeli official says a third-party mediator will be needed as the war escalates. He says that job could be filled by Washington, or possibly the United Nations (a U.N. mission is underway). "That's what it's going to take," he says. But he adds: "Who's going to take the lead?" One day soon, Bush may have to revisit that question.

    With Richard Wolffe, traveling on Air Force One, and Kevin Peraino in Jerusalem
    © 2006 Newsweek, Inc.
     
  2. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    I'm rather looking forward to Hayes' response here.
     
  3. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    To call Bush Administration foreign policy madly incompetent would be too kind. Of course, I've thought that for years. Yet another example of unintended consequences, brought about by severe myopia.



    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  4. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    That's a bit of an understatement. Right now his legacy is 1,000 people a month getting slaughtered like dogs in the bloody streets in Iraq and a hard line dominated nuclear armed Iran. Things have been transformed all right, just from bad to worse.
     
  5. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Can't be that bad if the U.S. is their benefactor. The Russians and the Chicoms are still dangerous.
     
  6. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    :rolleyes:

    Yes wnes, the two situations are PERFECT ANALOGUES. Man you are good at this, you should have considered law school.

    wnes, let me ask you a question.

    In your opinion, has the US ever done anything ever that you think was good in foreign policy?
     
  7. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Sam, you really are underestimating casualties in Iraq.


    U.N.: 14,000 Iraqis killed in 2006

    Holy city bomb kills 45; Armed robbers hit Baghdad bank

    BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- More than 14,000 civilians have been killed in Iraq in the first half of this year, an ominous figure reflecting the fact that "killings, kidnappings and torture remain widespread" in the war-torn country, a United Nations report says.

    Killings of civilians are on "an upward trend," with more than 5,800 deaths and more than 5,700 injuries reported in May and June alone, it says.

    The report, a bimonthly document produced by the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq, covers May and June, and includes chilling casualty figures and ugly anecdotes from the insurgent and sectarian warfare that continues to rage despite the establishment of a national unity government and a security crackdown in Baghdad.


    The report lists examples of bloody suicide bombs aimed at mosques, attacks on laborers, the recovery of slain bodies, the assassinations of judges, the killings of prisoners, the targeting of clergy -- all incidents dutifully reported by media over these three-plus years of chaos in the streets.

    The U.N. agency says it has been made aware since last year of the targeting of homosexuals, "increasingly threatened and extra-judicially executed by militias and 'death squads' because of their sexual orientation."

    The intolerance propelling the anti-gay prejudice extends to ethnic and religious minorities and others whose manner of dress doesn't meet the standards of religious extremists.

    "On 28 May, an Iraqi tennis coach and two of his players were shot dead in Baghdad allegedly because they were wearing shorts. Similar threats are said to be made to induce men to conform to certain hair styles or rules regarding facial hair," the report says.


    Women face intolerance -- and violence -- as well.

    "In some Baghdad neighborhoods, women are now prevented from going to the markets alone. In other cases, women have been warned not to drive cars or have faced harassment if they wear trousers. Women have also reported that wearing a headscarf is becoming not a matter of religious choice but one of survival in many parts of Iraq, a fact which is particularly resented by non-Muslim women."

    Academics and health professionals have been attacked, spurring them to leave the country or their home regions, causing a brain drain and a dislocation in services.

    "Health care providers face difficulties in carrying out their work because of the limited supply of electricity and growing number of patients due to the increase in violence," the report says.

    Kidnappings have been part of the chaotic Iraqi scene since the insurgency began, with many hostages killed even after a ransom is paid. The abductors are not only motivated by sectarianism or politics; organized crime appears to be involved with some of the kidnappings.

    "On some occasions, sectarian connotations and alleged collusion with sectors of the police, as well as with militias, have been reported to UNAMI. Although there are no reliable statistics regarding this phenomenon, because Iraqis often are afraid to report such crimes to the police, the kidnappings are likely a daily occurrence," the report says.


    For children, the "extent of violence in areas" other than the Kurdish region "is such that likely every child, to some degree, has been exposed to it," it says.

    "In one case the body of a 12-year-old Osama was reportedly found by the Iraqi police in a plastic bag after his family paid a ransom of some 30,000 U.S. dollars. The boy had been sexually assaulted by the kidnappers, before being hanged by his own clothing. The police captured members of this gang who confessed of raping and killing many boys and girls before Osama," the report says.

    Cultural symbols
    "Civilian casualties resulted mainly from bombings and drive-by shootings, from indiscriminate attacks, in neighborhood markets or petrol stations, or following armed clashes with the police and the security forces," the report says.

    "Civilians were also targeted or became unintended victims of insurgent or military actions.

    "Terrorist acts against civilians have been aimed at fomenting sectarian violence or allegedly motivated by revenge and have targeted members of the Arab Shia and Sunni communities, including their cultural symbols, as well as markets in Shia neighborhoods."

    Figures from the Medico-Legal Institute in Baghdad and the Ministry of Health show that the total number of civilians killed from January to June was 14,338.

    In late June, the Ministry of Health "acknowledged information stating that since 2003 at least 50,000 persons have been killed in violence and stated the number of deaths are probably under-reported." the report says.

    "The Baghdad morgue reportedly received 30,204 bodies from 2003 to mid-2006. Deaths numbering 18,933 occurred from 'military clashes' and 'terrorist attacks'" between April 5, 2004, and June 1, 2006.


    The report also notes the probes by the United States into the alleged killings of 24 civilians in Haditha by U.S. troops as well the deaths caused by military operations throughout the country.

    http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/18/iraq.main/index.html



    Sounds like hell on earth. Gays and women being targeted if they appear, "different." But, I'm sure the Iraqis will thank us for it all, someday. Right??



    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  8. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I can answer that... Nixon recognized China. Oh boy!


    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  9. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    ....LOL. I would guess the firebombing of Tokyo isn't far behind.
     
  10. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Not exactly perfect, but still analogous.

    The other day Deckard was dumbfounded that I was the first person he saw to use this analogy. Actually no. As I found out, Paul Wolfowitz did it three years ago.

    http://www.sptimes.com/2003/07/28/Korea/Wolfowitz__Iraqi_war_.shtml

    Of course, the difference is I am a steadfast non-interventionist while Wolfowitz is a war hawk.

    Easy, Nixon's Rapprochement with PRC.
     
  11. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    As I said before, the entire Middle East policy of this administration has always been:

    1. Invade Iraq
    2. Don't do anything Clinton did, even if he was right

    I find it incredible that people are saying this administration is trying to transform the Middle East with Democracy when this administration doesn't understand the basic concepts of Democracy. I realize that's a caricature, but it increasingly looks like one of the better caricatures around. You can't have people who ran crooked elections for chair of the local Young Republicans, people who whisper campaign about ilegitimate black babies and pedophilia in responsible positions and expect them to understand or advocate anything except personal power. They are now learning the world is not a college campus or a local race or even a Presidential primary and we are all worse off. Bullying can only take you so far. A few months ago, I was thinking we could ride this out for the next three years and then start rebuilding. No more. Color me officially pessimistic. And to top it all off, it looks like Bush just doesn't care enough to even keep up appearances, much less make a decision.... which is probably good because he would inevitably make the worst one.
     
  12. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    The guy is freakin' me out. I know this sounds like a cheap shot, but seriously, could the guy be drinking again? He seems to be increasingly disengaged and irrational. The incident giving the German Chancellor a massage, which clearly startled her and flipped her out, may seem petty, but it is yet another example of his crazy behavior.

    The guy is frightening. He's our President, and he may be nuts.



    Keep D&D Civil.
     
  13. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Sam, unlike you and your liberal buddy Deckard, I don't subscribe to moral relativism. Indiscriminantly bombing civilian targets should be condemned in all circumstances in my view.
     
  14. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    LOL, to me and most of the educated populace, Wolfowitz' three year old spin (GWB tries to liken Iraq to WWII all the time) tends to underscore how much the Korean War and the Iraq War are different - even a die-hard Iraq hawk like Hayesstreet recognizes this, as do Iraq war opponents such as myself and Franchiseblade. Quite honestly, I find it surprising that you take a chickenhawk clown like Wolfowitz at his word - since he's been busted lying to congress I tend to not believe a single thing that has ever come out of his mouth, and as far as his "analysis", well his track record is pretty horrific.

    Anyway, last time I checked Saddam Hussein did not swoop down from the Caucusus and invade Iraq, nor was Iraq in 2003 part of an expansionist soviet state with a large army that presented a larger regional threat. Insteand he was more like NK in 2003 - an isolated crackpot. (by way of contrast, in 1990 that is exactly what he did to Kuwait) I mean, just look up "pre-emptive" in the dictionary, and then look up "reactive". They're not the same thing, bro

    Quite honestly, if everybody followed your theory of non-interventionism, you might be speaking Russian or Japanese right now.

    wnes, I believe that the US has a responsibity to be internationalist rather than isolationist. While the exercise of US power has been far from perfect - it has not been completely deleterious either. I know this is hard for you to accept, but it's true.
     
    #14 SamFisher, Jul 19, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2006
  15. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    Nay, W is just incompetent.
     
  16. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    You reminded me of some of my Dutch friends. They say nay, as well. :)
    I hope Dubya is that simple, and is merely incompetent.
     
  17. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    If W's last name was not Bush, he would be lucky to have a job. Maybe that is a bit hard. Maybe without his privilege upbringing W would have grown to be a useful member of that "ownership society" he talks about. We will never know.

    All hat, no cattle, as is.
     
  18. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    He's been given everything he has. He's been enabled by his father, and his father's friends, so he could be a business failure, but become rich, be a mediocre politician, but become President. I wonder how his dad sleeps at night. I hope he has nightmares.



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  19. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    W was not a business failure. He was a drunk sitting on board of directors, given no real responsibility, except maybe access to his father. Calling W a business failure is thus a wild overstatement of his past.
     
    #19 No Worries, Jul 19, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2006
  20. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    I know I do... mostly, though, I have childhood-like dreams of fading memories that signify a country not ruined by these fools.
     

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