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Bush changes strategy -- will call for independent counsel on WMD-----

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by underoverup, Feb 2, 2004.

  1. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    Most everybody in a position to know has agreed that a huge mistake has been made.

    Before deciding to endorse an independent review, White House officials had little alternative but to rely on some unsatisfying answers when asked about the intelligence failure.


    For Bush, a Tactical Retreat on Iraq

    By Dana Milbank, Washington Post Staff Writer

    In deciding to back an independent review of the intelligence regarding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, President Bush is implicitly conceding what he cannot publicly say: that something appears to be seriously wrong with the allegations he used to take the nation to war in Iraq.


    Most everybody in a position to know has agreed that a huge mistake has been made.


    "We were almost all wrong," David Kay, the former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq, testified last week.


    "In this case, there's no question that there was an intelligence failure, in some form or another," Sen. Trent Lott (news, bio, voting record) (R-Miss.), a member of the Intelligence Committee, said yesterday on "Fox News Sunday." "Clearly this is not the immediate threat many assumed before the war," is how Charles Duelfer, Kay's replacement, put it a few months ago when he noted "the apparent absence of existing weapons stocks."


    Bush will announce this week that he is creating, by executive order, a bipartisan independent panel of at least nine members that will make a report in 2005, the White House confirmed yesterday. But those close to the president say he is doing so while continuing to avoid any explicit public acknowledgment that the intelligence was wrong. Why the reluctance to state what appears increasingly obvious as Kay spent the past 10 days dashing prospects that significant weapons stockpiles would be found in Iraq? Although the tactic may appear to be obtuse, there is a real strategy behind the Bush response -- and one that has been used before, to great effect.


    Bush aides have learned through hard experience that admitting error only projects weakness and invites more abuse. Conversely, by postponing an acknowledgment -- possibly beyond Election Day -- the White House is generating a fog of uncertainty around Kay's stark findings, and potentially softening a harsh public judgment.


    "They aren't giving up," Hans Blix, the former chief U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq, said recently. Blix's failure to find weapons of mass destruction before the war was ridiculed by the administration. "They all prefer to retreat under a mist of controversy rather than say, 'I'm sorry, this was wrong,' " he said.


    Of course, Bush and his top aides are as aware as anyone -- and acknowledge as much in private -- that Kay's remarks of the last week have dispelled remaining hope that the intelligence might prove correct. Although some in the White House favor having Bush admit publicly that the intelligence was flawed, a high-ranking Republican source said such a step is not yet being contemplated.


    Instead, for the White House, agreeing to allow an external review -- which Kay advocates -- amounts to a tacit acknowledgement of reality without an admission of error that would encourage opponents. Indeed, having a commission could postpone Bush's need to admit error indefinitely; in that sense, it is something of a tactical retreat.


    Nobody expects any hard conclusions to be reached before the Nov. 2 election -- either by congressional probes or an independent inquiry -- on what went wrong with the intelligence. Rep. Porter J. Goss (R-Fla.), chairman of the House intelligence committee and a former CIA case officer, said recently that partisan politics would make it impossible to get any real work done before the election. "Not this year," Goss said. "You couldn't get the members together, or even the rules set up."


    Bush has lately found many of his rationales for the war in Iraq being challenged. Just as Kay has undermined the WMD rationale, a report published by the Army War College challenged the notion that the war in Iraq was part of the overall war on terrorism, while the group Human Rights Watch has disputed Bush's notion that the Iraq war was a humanitarian mission. Vice President Cheney has implicitly acknowledged that the Iraq war has not spurred peace in the Middle East, saying peace is not possible while Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat remains in power.


    To all of these challenges, though, there is a simple solution for Bush: If the on-the-ground situation improves in Iraq, with violence abating and U.S. troops returning home, the American public will almost certainly forgive any flaws in the rationale for going to war. Discussing the weapons dilemma, Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.), who backs the president on Iraq, sees it this way: "If people feel things are under control in Iraq, the WMD issue doesn't have traction. If things go badly, then it does have traction."


    Also, the alternative for Bush -- admitting an error in the prewar allegations -- has not worked well for him in the past. Administration officials now say it was a mistake to acknowledge that Bush should not have included in last year's State of the Union address an allegation that Iraq tried to buy nuclear material in Africa. The admission of error, they say, made Bush appear weak and encouraged more skeptical coverage than if the White House had refused to budge.


    Before deciding to endorse an independent review, White House officials had little alternative but to rely on some unsatisfying answers when asked about the intelligence failure. On Wednesday, for example, Bush suggested that war came because Saddam Hussein did not let inspectors into Iraq, when in fact it was the United States that called for inspections to end. "It was his choice to make, and he did not let us in," Bush said.


    That same day, Bush press secretary Scott McClellan said the White House never said Iraq was an "imminent" threat. But when McClellan's predecessor, Ari Fleischer, was asked whether Iraq was an imminent threat, he replied: "Absolutely." And when White House communications director Dan Bartlett was asked whether Hussein was an imminent threat to U.S. interests, he replied: "Well, of course he is."


    In addition, Bush aides have regularly said that they were following the advice of intelligence experts. On Thursday, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites) said the weapons conclusion "was the judgment of our intelligence community, the judgment of intelligence communities around the world." Yet the White House, at various times, went beyond what the CIA advised. In addition to the allegation about Hussein's nuclear purchases in Africa, which the CIA discouraged, the White House asserted, without consulting with the CIA, that Iraq "could launch a biological or chemical attack 45 minutes after the order is given."


    In all their efforts last week to blunt the issue, though, White House officials have been careful not to say the intelligence was wrong. Invited to do so in a television interview Thursday with CBS News, Rice replied: "I don't think . . . that we know the full story of what became of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction." Those close to the White House said that, now that Bush has backed an independent review, there is no need for an immediate revision of that official position.

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1802&e=1&u=/washpost/20040202/ts_washpost/a3980_2004feb1
     
  2. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    I miss treeman.
     
  3. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I miss treeman as well. Maybe he has oak wilt.


    underoverup, I think the title is a little misleading, although I know it was unintentional. It isn't an independent counsel that we are supposed to be offered, but an "independent review", which is far different. I hate to be cynical, but that couild mean anything. i don't like the idea that nothing would come out until after the election. That's a little too convenient for Bush, isn't it?
     
  4. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Absolutely, I was about to post the same thing. The independent counsel statute (thankfully) expired a few years ago after the Starr investigation, uhh, careened, and, to my knowledge has not been renewed.
     
  5. Major

    Major Member

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    "In this case, there's no question that there was an intelligence failure, in some form or another," Sen. Trent Lott (news, bio, voting record) (R-Miss.), a member of the Intelligence Committee, said yesterday on "Fox News Sunday." "Clearly this is not the immediate threat many assumed before the war," is how Charles Duelfer, Kay's replacement, put it a few months ago when he noted "the apparent absence of existing weapons stocks."


    I don't understand this - how is this an intelligence failure? Didn't the N.I.E. and all the big reports say specifically that Iraq was not an immediate threat? Wasn't that the whole hoopla over Bush's distortion of intelligence to justify the war?
     
  6. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Yeah...tree, johnheath, sino et al are easy targets for not sticking around when things clearly weren't going their way, but if they'd waited just a little longer, they could have been part of the Ostrich Brigade, who simply pretend that none of the facts have yet to surface...


    ...which is a better policy?
     
  7. GreenVegan76

    GreenVegan76 Member

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    This is good news. Fantastic news, by almost any measure. No, an independent "panel" isn't perfect and, yes, it can be politically co-opted, but it's a damn good start.

    Maybe Bush was deceived with faulty intelligence or maybe he just lied through his teeth. Either way, the American public deserves to know why we sent more than 520 Americans to their deaths.
     
  8. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Bush said threat when intel said no threat, but intel did say WMD. How uninfluenced that intel was is another matter.

    There was selective use of intel to say there were WMD's. What has been shown...and ignored by Bush and supporters alike, was that there was no intel, selective or otherwise, which said Saddam was a threat, directly or indirectly. It's only the fact that his supporters keep overlooking this established act that keeps this from being universally accepted.
     
  9. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    I forgot about sinohero! I miss him, too!

    Yeah, both tactics are pretty sorry. Loved it when Jorge revived the old 'why do you love Saddam' thing for me the same day Kay and McCain called for an independent investigation.
     
  10. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    Oh I wish I could edit that, I even put it in bold above the headline ---- Sorry that was unintentional there is a big difference. :eek:
     
  11. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    What's sort of sad is that, with a few exceptions ( bama, texx, T_J, etc.) those who have remained and played ostrich comprise many of the more reasonable war supporters. It's discouraging that they keep ignoring inconvenient facts, acting like others are gray areas ( without ever examining the what if side of same that they don't like) and still more often shifting the argument away from established fact every time it gets too hot to handle.


    I can't count the number of times I've been asked to show the NIE report on Saddam as a threat, only to be asked a week or so later to prove my position on it again...and again...it's like if they don't like it, they don't take it in. Or better still, when the entire point of the NIE isn;t it's accuracy, but how it shows us that what Bush was saying the intel said and the truth are opposite, war supporters will respond to the NIE report about Saddam as a threat by saying ' Well, if they were wrong about the WMD, maybe they were wrong about the threat." I have seen that very same, evasive argument several times, often by posters I respect.

    Same goes for the fact that several intel officials were complainging/resigning over the practice of selective intel pre-war. Have shown it time and again...yet I guarantee you, next time I mention it in an argument with a war supporter, they will ask me where I get that from...Or the fact that we KNOW that the admin knew it was quoting bad intel...It's been proven time and again, yet it is still treated as an open question, or simply ignored. The fact that many of the more reasonable war supporters still do this so often really brings me down a notch.
     
  12. ron413

    ron413 Member

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    Cry me a river.

    Bill Shakespeare would be rolling over in his grave with you representing the name & likeness of one of his greatest works also.

    Who cares really?
     
  13. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Aside from the insult, your point?
     
  14. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Just noticed that you called the man 'Bill'. Don't bother answering my previous post...already know all I need to about you.
     
  15. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    Was there a point? Did you just say anything? "Who cares?" You mean other than the families of the dead Americans and Iraqis? Um, pretty much everyone who regularly posts in this forum for starters. If you had a point, other than an awkward attempt to slam MacBeth for his choice of handle, you failed to make it. You're better when you stick to cutting and pasting Chronicle articles.
     
  16. Sishir Chang

    Sishir Chang Member

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    The most disturbing thing about this is that any controversy about this situation could end up being covered up and forgotten. I think this issue needs to be kept alive as long as possible as an object lesson for anytime this and future Admins think about going to war on murky speculative intel and reasoning.

    David Kay said it himself.

    That's a lesson we should always remember.
     
  17. JeffB

    JeffB Member

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    Yeah, this has "9-11 Commission Part II" written all over it. Count on the administration to obstruct this panel at every turn. This needs to be a congressional thing. An executive order gives Bush an opportunity to limit the scope of the investigation.
     
  18. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    And it's sure to drag out past the election, making a report, assuming it got as far as a report, too late to let the people make their judgement. Groovy.
     
  19. GreenVegan76

    GreenVegan76 Member

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    In a very-much related vein, a grand jury recently convened to investigage the White House for its role in leaking the identity of Joseph Wilson's wife as a CIA agent.

    Wilson is the ex-embassador that the White House sent to Africa two years ago to check out reports of Saddam's purchse of yellow-cake uranium. Wilson reported back that it was a hoax -- it never happened.

    But Bush turned around and used his report as *proof* that Saddam was purchasing yellow-cake uranium. In the State of the Union address, no less. Amazingly, Bush sold the Iraq war on this hoax, even though Wilson repeatedly told the administration that there was absolutely no proof of any Nigerian deal.

    With an invasion looming, Wilson went public with that information. Now, a year later, it looks like the outing of Wilson's wife was apparent revenge for Wilson's criticism of Bush's Iraq policy.
     
  20. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    Bush will announce this week that he is creating, by executive order, a bipartisan independent panel of at least nine members that will make a report in 2005, the White House confirmed yesterday.

    GWB, what a born leader!!! Who better than GHWB to lead this bipartisan comission? or maybe that HOuse of Lords dud who cleared Blair of "sexing" up intel while concentrating on media coverage? or maybe Kissinger? or ...
     

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