Building for 2007: How do you distribute the money?

(warning: LONG)

We have four painful weeks to wait before teams really start talking to free agents, but you can bet the discussions will start within the Astros' management this week. On the surface, you'll have $45 million or so coming off the books between Bagwell, Pettitte and Clemens... but of course, it's not that smple.

Clemens' money is always separate, so that $10 million doesn't really count. Plus, you have to account for probably $7 or $8 extra million to arbitration-eligible players. Then, take away another $7 or $8 million for Drayton... it's unlikely and unrealistic to expect him to keep the payroll as high as he did last season. We can assume Biggio will be brought back for around the same salary. So, in my opinion, without re-signing Huff and Pettitte, we'll have around $20-$25 millon to play with.

Tentatively, this leaves you with something like this:

C: Ausmus/Quintero/House
1B: Berkman/Lamb/House
2B: Biggio/Burke/House
SS: Everett/Bruntlett/Burke
3B: Ensberg/Lamb/Bruntlett
LF: Scott/Burke/Jimerson
CF: Taveras/Burke/Jimerson
RF: Lane/Burke/Jimerson

SP: Oswalt, Hirsh, Albers, Buchholz, Rodriguez
MR: Wheeler, Qualls, Lidge, Nieve, Miller, Springer

Spots of concern:

Starting pitching: This, to me, is the biggest. Outside of Oswalt, there's no consistency here. I think it's imperative for us to convince Andy to come back, and hopefully Roger too. Andy would hopefully come for a discounted rate ($8 mil a season, maybe?) and Roger's money clearly is separate from the rest of the payroll. If you have to replace these two, it's going to be very difficult. Pitching is notoriously overvalued and ends up getting overpaid in free agency. If you want one of the elite hurlers (Zito), that's going to be $14 or so of your $20 million to play with right there. I think it's best to go all-out to re-sign Pettitte ($8 mil), scan the trade market for values (see what Padres did with Chris Young) and treat everything with Roger as a bonus.

Catcher: Ausmus is probably back (he's signed), but wow, this is a concern spot. It wouldn't be so bad if we weren't also sacrificing offense at short, but it's a killer. I hope we get lucky and Ausmus retires, but assuming that doesn't happen, there's probably no money spent here. If Toronto lets Molina walk, we might take a look.

Third base: Is Morgan the answer? Personally, I think he's fine and he's under club control... as long as you keep him in the 2 spot and out of a position in the lineup that depends on him to drive in runs. We also desperately need right-handed bats. If he's not, are you willing to depend on Lamb as a full-time player, or do you want to re-sign Huff?

Corner outfield: Clearly, we need more offense. As of now, we have Luke Scott. Is he a starter? In my opinion, he's proven he deserves the chance, and he doesn't cost much money, so that's an easy decision. The other spot? Assuming Ensberg/Lamb can handle third, it's Aubrey Huff right now. But is he the best fit? I don't think he is, at least not with Scott in the other corner. I like Huff, and I know he likes this team, but we have to make decisions that are best for us overall. And one huge problem down the stretch this season was the ability of lefties to crush the middle part of our lineup.

I'd let Huff walk. I don't think he's enough of an upgrade over Ensberg at third to warrant the additional salary. And while he's a good corner OF, I think we really need a reliable right-handed power bat that can hit both righties and lefties well in the 4-spot in the order. Picture Carlos Lee. We've been talking for months, and we have the money... let's make it happen for $9 or $10 million a year. If you sandwich Berkman at 3 in between Ensberg at 2 and Lee at 4, it's a lot more difficult for lefty relievers to mow through the lineup. If not Lee, go for another right-handed corner OF with quality production. But I'd break up the string of lefties.

Centerfield: It's clear the Astros aren't all that enamored with Willy. A month and a half ago, there were rumors we'd be interested in Jim Edmonds, who probably wouldn't cost all that much. And it's definitely a spot we could upgrade, especially in terms of producing runs. But, we don't have unlimited money, and to me, this isn't the most pressing need, especially when we have other areas to attend to. Willy became more selective as the year went on (OBP of .387 in August) and raised his OBP almost a full point (.325 to .333) from last year to this year.

He needs to improve that even more, but from my perspective, his eye is improving. He also improved his base running from the beginning of the season to the end. I think he's cheap enough and valuable enough defensvely to keep around. Plus, even if he doesn't make the necessary improvements, Burke's capable of doing a decent job both at the plate and in center. I think a significant addition here (Edmonds or Hunter) would cost so much to be a value for us.

Relief pitching: Everyone knows this was an issue. But, Wheeler's put together back to back outstanding years. Qualls was pretty good. The team has high hopes for Nieve. Lidge, while struggling, clearly still has the talent. I'd love for us to acquire another reliever, but to me, this is an area where we have enough talent that we can survive as it is. And to me, we have too many other holes that need fixing with that money.



LONG post, but to me, that details the problem spots. From there, how do you distribute the money? Assuming we have $20 to $25 mllion to re-sign our own free agents (not counting arbitration-eligible) as well as sign others, what spots get upgraded with those funds? Ideally, we could fix all of them, but that's not financially feasible... so what are the things we absolutely have to do?

 

My plan:

1. Be aggressive in re-signing Pettitte. He didn't have the best season, but he came on strong late, and this team desperately needs reliable starters. Make him the top priority. He had a down year, and he only averaged about $10 mil a season three years ago, so I'm guessing we can get him for aorund $8 million.

2. Plan for life after Roger. If he wants to come back, great. Let's take him back. But no more penciling him into the rotation and then hoping and praying he comes through. Let's build the rotation like he's not going to come, and anything from him is a bonus.

3. Explore the trade market for Morgan Ensberg. I like Morgan, but clearly this isn't the best situation right now. If you can get a good deal (maybe San Diego for Linebrink or Meredith and a pitching prospect along with some cash?), take it. If not, keep him, because he still has a lot of value, especially if you put him in the 2 spot and take advantage of his OBP.

3. If you can't get a good deal for Ensberg (and I doubt we will), let Huff walk. I think he's a good guy. I think he wants to come back. But I don't think he fits any need well enough to justify the $6 or $7 million of our $20 that he would likely require. He might be an upgrade on Ensberg, but I don't think he's enough of an upgrade to justify that increase in salary. Hope Ensberg comes around, and if he doesn't, platoon him with Lamb.

4. Sign Carlos Lee or another right-handed corner outfield bat. We need a legit run producer behind Berkman, and he needs to be right-handed so we can break up the string of lefties that leaves us so vulnerable to the Macay McBride's and Chuck James' of the world. That'll probably cost you $9 million this first season.

5. Scan the trade market hard for undervalued American League starting pitchers. The NL is full of run of the mill AL pitchers turned semi-studs upon meeting the NL... see what San Diego did with Chris Young last year. Don't be afraid to deal a prospect to make the trade; look at Hirsh's performance after so many of you expected Roy Oswalt part 2. It's not that simple with prospects. Look hard, find a team that needs one of our prospects or position players without a place to play (Chris Burke, Jason Lane, maybe even Brad Lidge?), and make a deal. Make them the #3 pitcher in the rotation behind Roy and Andy.

6. Put out feelers for Bengie Molina (if he's a FA) and gauge his interest. Clearly, it'd be a sensitive issue with Ausmus coming back for one more season. But, Ausmus knows it's likely his last season, and he's wearing down... he'd probably agree to a deal where he only played 2 out of 5 days. You need to plan for life after Brad, and I don't think the organization views Quintero or Gimenez as long-term solutions... see if we can find a capable one this offseason for cheap. Otherwise, play Ausmus and Quintero again and re-examine the situation for 2008.

7. Hometown discounts. See if there's a veteran player at one of the previously mentioned weak spots who might come cheaper because of the location. Woody Williams comes to mind... cheap deal, perhaps?

8. Look for a versatile, right-handed outfielder that can mash lefties. We're too split toward hitting right-handed pitching... we need some versatility to give Luke (and Huff, if he's resigned) platoon partners so we aren't hopeless against lefties again. I'm thinking an Eric Byrnes type... capable defenders who can hit lefties and won't cost all that much ($3 mil or so).

9. Scan the reliever market and see if you can pick up an additional reliever on the cheap. Think Guardado, Wickman, Baez, Borowski, etc. We don't necessarily need another reliever as it stands, but I think Lidge is going to be a hot commodity in the offseason (and someone who isn't a great fit here) and signing an additional reliever would give us the flexibility to deal Lidge if the right deal came along.

So, to summarize, my ideal offseason: re-sign Andy ($8 mil), sign Lee ($9 mil), sign Byrnes ($3 mil), sign a reliever like Borowski ($1 mil), and sign a vet SP (Woody Williams?) if you don't get a commitment from Clemens.

My ideal 2007 25-man roster:
C: Ausmus/Quintero
1B: Berkman/House
2B: Biggio/Burke
SS: Everett/Bruntlett
3B: Ensberg/Lamb
LF: Lee/Byrnes
CF: Taveras/Byrnes
RF: Scott/Byrnes

SP: Oswalt, Pettitte, two out of Clemens/Woody Williams/trade possibilities, one out of Hirsh/Albers
MR: Wheeler, Qualls, Lidge, Nieve, Miller, Borowski... and insert Springer or Sampson if Qualls or Lidge gets dealt for SP or offensive help

 

How successful do you guys think Woody Williams could be here?

This is something I keep coming back to, especially now that I found this from John Lopez a month ago.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/lopez/4153408.html

On the surface, a 3.65 ERA pitcher wanting to come home for a discount looks great. But, he clearly doesn't have the best stuff, and he's also coming from incredibly pitcher-friendly Petco. He also had an ERA of 4.85 in 2005, and has only averaged about 150 IP the last two seasons.

Is he worth it, for $5 million a season or so? It seems very realistic, it's just a matter of whether it's a good option for us to pursue.

 

Right; clearly, he's way, way down on the list of priorities. I'm just thinking along the lines of the #3 spot, in the scenario that we re-sign Andy but Roger decides to take the "wait and see" approach again and the SP trade market isn't looking too good.

Also, Nick, I know you're not exactly a huge fan of Willy... if we fail in landing Lee, would you take much of a run at Edmonds? He'd clearly do some things better than Willy, but is the injury/age risk too much at this stage? Also, there's the left-handed part too.

What would you guys think about maybe an Edmonds/insert platoon player here situation in center or right in the event we get outbid on the Lee's and Soriano's of the market?

 

At least for most of it. He might come back in late August or early September, but it's to be determined, and it's not something you want to depend on.

Nick, I agree with you on Willy. I don't dislike him either, but he's not a great fit at the top of the order and his lack of run production hurts when you consider that Everett and Ausmus are also likely to be in the lneup. That's why I'd consider making a move, if one is financially feasible.

I'm not enamored with Edmonds like some fans are; I just think he might be the most available and the most undervalued in this particular market. He also seems to be the kind of veteran who we typically seek out and the kind of player who gets drawn to a team like the Astros.

Also, anyone have some potential AL pitching trade targets? I mentioned Chris Young as an example, but I'm not sure what the market is this year. Off the top of my head, Matt Clement seems to be a guy very available who might rebound in a NL environment... but I'm sure there are plenty of others like him. Clement's just someone who comes to mind because of the media's Yankee/Red Sox obsession.

 

I agree with most of it, wes, except this...

I'd love for that to be true, but I've read too many insiders that say there's virtually no chance that House has the arm strength necessary to be a catcher on a regular basis. Now, Quintero had a good final month of the season, and he has an excellent arm behind the plate... maybe we give him another look. But I don't think there's anyone in our system now that we can definitely say is a future starter at catcher, and if one comes available (Molina) I really hope we don't wait on it.

Of course, if we fix all the other areas we've talked about in this thread, we probably won't have the money and we may have to wait anyway.