Let's make something absolutely clear. I'm an Astros fan, through and through, and I'll always be one. However, I'm dismayed (and sick to my stomach) to see the 'Stros crumbling under the pressure time and time again. I'm sick of this "Wait until next year" BS. Assuming the Astros cannot win three straight (and yes, this is very premature in the eyes of a die-hard Astros fan), is it time for a drastic change? Trade away Biggio or Bagwell? Let Alou go? Axe Dierker? What can be done to transform this team into a World Series (or at least a playoff series) winning team? I want so very much for this team to at least win one playoff series, it hurts. Our current lineup, beyond all logical reason, doesn't seem to be able to achieve this feat. Do we need 1) no change, 2) a small change, or 3) a big one? What can be done? Trade Bagwell (for Manny Ramirez)? Acquire a star veteran pitcher? Play Ward on a regular basis? Bring up Jason Lane? Get Felipe Alou? Play Adam Everett? Move Berkman to first base? Who's a free agent this year? Someone please give me delusions of grandeur (albeit, within reason) to at least take my mind off the empty feeling I have right now. Go 'Stros... 3 straight games is doable...
Add speed. Castilla and Alou are likely gone anyway. Shortstop might get changed. Replace them with fast contact hitters. High average, low slugging. (People like the Colorado center-fielder whose name I forget offhand) Put the speed guys on top in front of the Bagwell/Berkman. Biggio should move down in the lineup to 6 or 7. He can clean up whatever's left, but he doesn't have the speed anymore to be a bigtime table-setter. That also puts a real threat at the bottom of the order. Ausmus might be the perfect #2 man as well. Good speed, good contact hitter, little power. Should they lose this series, Dierker will probably be gone regardless. The new manager will be set with one of the best young pitching staffs in the league.
We have a good line up. We have staff aces. We have good relief. We have a closer. I think we can still win this thing if Reynolds can pick up a win, but I don't know what the answer is. I think it's confidence. They need something to cling onto. They just aren't getting it. Lugo may be the scapegoat this year. I don't think you can blame Dierker. The team at some point has to stand up and do some damage.
Shanna, I don't like Ausmus at the 2 spot. He is fast and I agree that for most of the game he'd be a good 2 man, but at the end of games pitchers would love to work him in between Biggio and Bagwell. They feast on him. So I think he hurts the line up at the 2 spot. No more than Lugo mind you, but I do think he hurts us.
The main priority is to get a good center fielder. I think Carl Everett can be had with most of his salary picked up by the Red Sox. This is something that Duquette mentioned the Sox were willing to do. I know he has imploded virtually everywhere he has gone, but he fit in well in Houston. I don't think McClane is willing to invest in any player of comparable talent at centerfield because of the self-imposed salary constraints of the Astros. Everett could effectively replace Alou and provide more fire and better defense if his head is right. Big if, of course. Admittedly, the Carl Everrett scenario is a long-shot. More realistically, I would look for the Astros to either bring up Adam Everett, or find a mid-level shortstop to at least provide some speed and defensive stability. I hope the Astros keep the bullpen they have (perhaps Doug Brocail will come back strong, too) and keep Castilla. I figure the Astros will put all of their eggs in the Fire Dierker basket and hope that their young pitching staff and re-signing Wagner can mollify their fans when they let Alou, Mike Williams and Castilla go. I agree with Dadakota..the Astros need to mix in a few fiery players with the boyscouts. The boyscouts are not getting the job done. How does Bin-Laden hit the slider?
Shanna, you make a great point. The Astros can only play one style of ball because of their lack of speed. Today's game is a classic example. Tough pitcher, needing to maximize run opportunities. But I'm not ready to fold it up just yet! What's the name of this site again? Where did that name originate from? GOTTA BELIEVE!!
I'll agree with Shanna. We need more speed. At least, when we had Cedeno, he could steal bases. We need to get younger and faster, IMO. We also need more hit-and-run type of baseball. Chicks may dig the long ball, but relying on your core to hit doubles, triples, and HRs every time up is asking a lot. My Analysis and Wishful Thinking: Starting pitching: Our pitching, when healthy, is fine. Oswalt, Miller, and Redding are the future. Combine them with an effective Shane Reynolds, and you have a good group of starting pitchers. Is Astacio likely to be back? I'm not so sure. Is anyone available in the free agent market? Dunno. WHERE WE STAND: Bullpen: Our bullpen is okay as well. Retaining Wagner is key. Keep Dotel and Cruz. Jackson is trash, as is Villone. Williams is most likely gone (I like him, though). Come to think of it, maybe this area could use some beefing up. Something like trading for Stanton. WHERE WE STAND: 1st base: Bagwell is entrenched here, but maybe we should trade him (I know... heresy! traitor! imbecile!). We could move Berkman to first and trade Bags for Manny R. Manny has made it clear he wants out of Boston. Bags is originally from that area and came from their farm system (for Larry Andersen.. snicker, snicker...). WHERE WE STAND: 2nd base: Biggio is the man, but for how long? For now, I say we keep him. Maybe he shouldn't lead-off anymore, though. WHERE WE STAND: 3rd base: I'd like to keep Castilla if possible. He's shown his worth to me. Might not be that expensive, either. Truby is not the answer at third. (What's Bill Spiers or John Cangelosi up to these days?) WHERE WE STAND: Shortstop: Lugo needs to go. I liked him at first (at least compared to Gutierrez), but he's really tried my patience this year. Vizcaino or Everett should start. Everett gets the nod assuming he can hit a teeny bit. WHERE WE STAND: and Outfield: Going back to the Manny Ramirez trade, we let Alou (RF) walk and bring in Manny (also RF). Since Berkman will move to 1B, we put Ward into LF. Hidalgo (who I'm disappointed with at the moment) stays in CF. Jason Lane is another OF option. Sorry, Elvis Costello, but Carl Everett would destroy our team, IMO. If we end up doing something stupid like trading for Derek Bell this offseason, I'll gorge my eyes out with a rusty nail. Repeat after me: No... Derek... Bell... WHERE WE STAND: and
okay, I'm going to try to think outside the box a little. . . bear with me. starting pitching: - we're set. starting rotation of Oswalt, Miller, Reynolds, Hernandez and Redding. Redding still needs work, obviously. but he's as sound a 5th starter as any team needs. plus, he may come through on that upside. bullpen: - Wagner, Dotel, Cruz, Jim Mann and Wilfredo Rodriguez. I know, I know. Wilfredo is young. but he's also a lefty, and maybe he develops quickly. actually, I just don't know our minor leagues well enough to pick anyone else. Mike Williams is a possibility. at this point, though, I want somebody that the minor league people rave about, not one of these in-betweens like Scott Linebrink. bottom line. . . this is still going to be a strength area of the team. infield: here's where I start to make changes. - start Daryle Ward at 1st base. despite everyone's fixation with the home run ball, he is actually one of our best pure hitters. we need contact people. we need people who will consistently produce. we don't need people who will binge on 15 hr's in a month, then hit .150 the next. - start Biggio at 2nd. I agree with shanna, though, that he needs to be hitting much lower in the order. the 'Stros have got to be able to play small-ball to do well in the playoffs. - Adam Everett at shortstop. I know he probably can't hit, but he's young and new and better than Lugo, and hopefully he'll be able to grow into a spray hitter. if he can hit .250 and play the defense they say he can, he can get the job done for us. - here's the biggie. . . move Jeff Bagwell back to 3rd base. I don't care if he's getting older, and I don't care if he likes it. he's a good enough athlete to do it [and hey, it might get him back in the All-Star game!]. I make this move in order to get Ward in the everyday lineup and because we don't have a really good option at 3rd. let's use one of our surpluses to shore up one of our deficit positions. outfield: - Berkman, Hidalgo and Lane. even though he hasn't shown it in the playoffs, I still believe Berkman can play that Yankee-style of playoff baseball. and from what I hear, Lane is a carbon copy of Berkman. I'm going with a bunch of the younger guys for the following reason. . . . . . more than anything else, the 'Stros need a new mentality. whether it's dierker or not, have you ever seen so much negativity around a team as the Astros these last couple of weeks. I think, for them to shed the playoff monkey, more than anything else, they need someone who can give them a new attitude. and for that reason, I make Tony Pena the manager of the Astros. having been a catcher, he knows the pitching game as well as Dierker. but having also been an everyday player, I think he commands the respect of the hitters way more than Dierker ever could. plus, Pena will have managed a lot of the big-league club in New Orleans [with quite a bit of success, I might add]. in summary: 1) a new manager to nurture a new mentality in the clubhouse 2) change the lineup to get your best hitters for average on the field every day 3) bring on the young pups to help with the new mentality
uhhhh i dont agree, ward at first base where he belongs and berkman has shown that he can play the outfield...ward cant...and then dont even get me started about letting the best first baseman ever, to leave...how many times do i have to tell you...DONT SMOKE CRACK...
My predictions: 1. Dierker is gone. Sorry fella, but you are too laid back, you dont command respect from your players, and your guys cant win in the clutch (which may or may not be attributed to him). Tony Pena is a decent choice, but I dont think the Stros are going to be fishing in the minor leagues for management, and you can forget about Felipe Alou. Dont have any suggestions here..... 2. Alou is gone. Ward takes his place in RF. This goes without saying. 3. Astacio is gone. I think everyone is forgetting about MR. DAVE MILIKI who brought 7 wins in 1/2 of a season to the table (I will take 14 wins from a starting pitcher any day of the week). He looked damn good today against the Braves (Thanks Julio! ) Rotation is: Reynolds, Miller, Oswalt, Miliki, Redding (or vet FA) 4. We resign Vinny for 2 years (HOPEFULLY). Was this a great pickup or what? Obviously he wont cover 3rd for the long term, but he gives you everything you want out of 3B, and plays hella-good defense. 5. I agree Jackson is GARBAGE. Why the hell wasnt Dotel in there yesterday??? Nice job Dierk!! Keep: Wagner, Dotel, Cruz, Williams. 6. Get rid of JULIO LUGO. I cant stand this guy. He is a streaky hitter, and is totally ERRATIC in the field. Why Vizcaino didnt play more often, I will never know. Everett is not ready (dude looks like a bat boy for chrissake!) Need to get a solid vet if Vizcaino doesnt return.
None of the aforementioned changes will help the Astros win more than they are now. Bagwell and Biggio are both awesome players, yet nobody can explain their absence in the playoffs. Could it be because we have faced Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Brown, and a red-hot Sterling Hitchcock every time we go to the playoffs. Do the Braves just have our number? I think that the Astros have a tendency to pile up #'s against the Milwaukees and the Cincinnatis of the NL. They are not good at hitting the top-tier pitchers. That being said, this may be a question of heart. Do the Killer B's have it? Don't think so. One thing is for sure, though. Dierker must be fired after his continuous string of bizarre decisions.
shanna- I agree more or less. However, I think Biggio would be effective in the #2 slot, rather than that far down in the lineup. To move Biggio to the 2 slot, then we have to either acquire a Juan Pierre, Shannon Stewart, or Johnny Damon to patrol CF (move Hidalgo to right, and let Alou go). Here's my analysis of how things should be broken down: Starters: 1. Wade Miller- definition of stud pitcher. Can go 120+ pitches with ease, and throws 95+ with 3 devastating pitches. 2. Roy Oswalt- dominator. Roy and Wade will be like Schilling and Johnson...except they'll be together for 10 years (hopefully) 3. Shane Reynolds- veteran influence, good guy to have, still comes up big. 4. Carlos Hernandez- Good to have a lefty in the rotation, and with the dominant righties we have, it's almost unfair to hitters to face great righties Roy and Wade and then see great stuff from a lefty. 5. Dave Mlicki/Tim Redding- He has one year left on his contract. He can be a solid #5. If Redding steps up this could be his slot. Three solid youngsters+Redding secures the rotation. By the time Shane is done, Greg Miller, Mike Nannini, etc. will take over. We're set for awhile. Pedro Astacio won't be back, unless he comes at a nice price. Bullpen Wagner, Dotel, Cruz, Villone, and Redding/Mlicki are 5 guys I think should/will definitely be back, and that only leaves 2 slots left. Villone has proven valuable in spot starts, and is the only lefty outside of Wagner. I think we may try and bring back Mike Williams, but Mike Jackson will be somewhere else. Rodriguez may challenge for a spot because he's a lefty. We need to get a lefty specialist, and 3 inning kind of guy. I suspect we'll take a chance on a veteran or 2 again for cheap, like Bottenfield and Jackson last year. Lineup 1. ????- This needs to be a base stealer, that plays either center field or short stop. If not, Astros may wait 1-2 years for Chris Burke who they think can steal 40+ bases. 2. Craig Biggio, 2B- He really needs to be here. He did so well with runners on, and would get more to hit with Bags behind him. 3. Jeff Bagwell, 1B- There's no way he's traded, or moved to 3rd. He hasn't played 3rd in years. 4. Lance Berkman, LF- He'll only get better 5. Richard Hidalgo, RF- He spent this whole year pressing, and playing out of position, in probably the biggest center field in the league. I expect to see something closer to the 2000 version of him. 6. Vinny Castilla, 3B-They have to bring him back, or something comparable. They may have a feeling on Morgan Ensberg 7. Brad Ausmus, C-He got used to Enron, and hit around .300 the 2nd half 8. ????- If you can get a speedy CF, this spot is Adam Everett's 9. Pitcher There's a couple of other options as well. If Drayton doesn't want to pay Vinny for fear he won't deliver, I'd love to see us go after Scott Rolen. Daryle Ward is tradeable, if we bring back Merced. Jason Lane will be able to fill Ward's role soon, so if trading Ward can solve the SS, CF, or 3B dilemna, a move has to be made. I don't expect Alou back. He just doesn't make sense unless you can trade Hidalgo for a speedy CF.
Textbook inning from the Oakland A's on how to score against good pitchers: -Damon singled to left. -Damon stole second. -Tejada grounded out to second, Damon to third. -Ja Giambi hit sacrifice fly to left center, Damon scored. -Dye walked. -Chavez grounded out to first. We've got to find some speed. Unfortunately, moving Ward to RF/LF just makes the problem worse. I think we need to consider trading Ward+Minor Leaguer for a Juan Pierre type player. He just doesn't have anywhere to start on this team. Anyone ever notice how our line drives always seem to find an outfielder and opponents' line drives always find a gap? Speed in the outfield would help this situation also. One consideration: Roger Cedeno might be available. Detroit wasn't willing to meet his contract demands earlier. Not the best solution since he struggled here last year, but maybe one of the best options we have.
Here are some interesting stats. Biggio led all lead off hitters in the majors in on base percentage which kinda shocks me. Biggio .382 OBP Ichiro .381 Pierre .378 The interesting thing to me is the strikeout totals. Biggio 100 Ichiro 53 Pierre 29 Bagwell and Berkman are undestandable because they put up huge power numbers and they also walk a ton, but Biggio and Lugo combine for 216 strikeouts which is just ridiculous for table setting non-power threats. These are the type of things that show how hit or miss the Astros are and why they can bash bad pitching and disappear against good pitching. Biggio 100 Lugo 116 Bagwell 135 Berkman 121 Alou 57 Hidalgo 107 Castilla 86
shanna-Roger Cedeno never learned to play CF unfortunately. That was why we traded him in the first place. Johnny Damon should come at a cost less than Mo Alou and would fit in really well. BTW, Pierre would be a dream fit as well.
Wow shanna, its as if we're joined at the hip on this issue. As much as I like Ward, its time for the Astros to make a decision on what to do with him, not only for the Astros benefit but also his. We all know he's a defensive liability, but how exactly is he supposed to improve if he's not playing everyday. IMHO, the Astros are REAL CLOSE to having a Braves-like run in the Central, i.e. being in contention for the division title year after year. They have the makings of a dynamite pitching staff (who would've thought it, considering where they play) in addition to a lineup filled with power. All they really need to do is solidify the middle of the field (find a true CF with speed and a decent bat, hope that Everett is the real deal), add some speed and athleticism, and do a little tweaking to the bullpen. BTW, what do you think of Berkman moving to 3b if Castilla doesn't come back? Not a suggestion, I think he's fine in LF, just a hypothetical question.
this team needs some juan pierre type players! speed...good defensive players...contact hitters. Clearly a lineup full of sluggers shows how worthless it can be in one run games. When you don't have one player that can bunt someone over...and when you have guys chasing balls all over the place to try to hit the big one...you lose in the playoffs. You have to be able to manufacture runs, and this team isn't built to do that! I am, however, still concerned with having Adam Everett be the starting shortstop next year...the astros do not believe this guy can hit .250...if they did, he would have been up this year. If he can't, you now have three automatic outs in this lineup including Ausmus (playoffs notwithstanding) and the pitcher. Everett CAN NOT bat at the top of the order...clearly can't bat in the middle of the lineup...and if he's in the 7-8-9 slots with Ausmus and the pitcher, that's a full inning of automatic outs! Juan Pierre would be my priority #1...not far behind that is resigning Castilla...letting Alou go...starting Pierre in center..berkman in right..hidalgo in left. I don't know what you do at SS...I really don't know. Vizcaino had 14 errors this season playing even less than half the time. Rotation is good..and young and cheap! Bullpen is good..with Brocail returning! You don't trade Bagwell (damn, he's hitting. 600 in the playoffs so far!!)...you don't trade Biggio...you keep potential Hall of Famers...you've kept them this long! You let them retire as Astros. Avoid Carl Everett...he made statements after he left about how he didn't like Houston...quite frankly, Carl Everett is the kind of guy who doesn't like it anywhere.
