http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=418 I thought this was an interesting bit of work. Pelton just graphs some team statistical trends over the last 30 years to get an idea of where the league is heading. In summary: Pace: After NBA pace league wide slowed to a crawl in the late 90s, it has gradually been increasing in recent years (2000 being an outlier). Still, the NBA is played much slower nowadays than in the 70, 80s, and early 90s Offense: Offensive efficiency has been increasing since the late 90s as well, and is now close to the efficiency levels of the mid 80s - early 90s NBA. Offensive rebounding: This has been steadily declining league-wide since the early 80s. It looks like the increasing role of 3-pointers in NBA offenses likely is a significant contributer here. 3-point Attempts: Steadily increasing since the 3-pointers were added to the NBA game. There was a spike during the shorter 3-pointer years, but by now the averages have eclipsed even those levels. 3-point Attempts: In addition to 3-point attempts increases, the 3-point% has also been increasing on them.
even with 3pt % increasing, wouldn't you think it would have the opposite effect on offensive rebounding? I know when I play pick-up, unless absolutely no one on your team can shoot worth crap, you're almost always better off playing Suns style ball, because it seems like 1 out of every 3 threes missed you get the offensive rebound anyway. you know long rebounds, funny rebounds, more time in the air requiring the defender to box out longer, etc. EDIT: hmmm...reading the article, it kind of makes sense now: The offensive rebound put-back of layup misses I guess is pretty common, enough so that offensive rebounding is more likely to come from shots in the paint...
I think studies have shown that shots in the paint are more likely to be offensive rebounded. Not sure what the difference is between midrange jumpers and 3-pointers.
I can see that now. I forgot about the in the paint offensive rebound put-back, which you do see a fair amount.
So the fast break of the past was in part due to teams not focusing as much on transition D and instead trying to get put backs? That does make sense.
JVG defense: at least two guys run back for transition D as soon as a shot is put up. It relies only the center and the PF to do offensive rebounding. That's why guys like Chuck Hayes was so important for JVG's system because he is such a good offensive rebounder. Good rebounding guards (e.g. Steve Francis, Bonzi Wells), on the other hand, have not much use in that facet of their game.
It could work both ways. The more fast breaks a team has, the more offensive rebounding opportunities there could be. I think offensive rebounds are probably a relatively common occurrence on 2-on-1 and 3-on-1 fast breaks.
They still get defensive rebounds. I could be wrong, but I don't remember Sura getting many offensive rebounds. But Sura's is getting to the hoop, rather than shooting 3pt jumpers. When the guard penetrates, somebody is supposed to move to the top of the arc, preparing for a kickout or transition D.
