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Bonzi's role maybe not be so obvious (numbers and skills)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Desert Scar, Sep 29, 2006.

  1. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    1st, it is great addition value wise. 1-2 year deal at a little over 2 mil a year, steal. Whether we kept him after he opts after year 1 (unless he is injured badly he will), I don't know. Depends a lot on his effectiveness and the progression of younger guards. But I was looking at his production more closely and thinking about his strengths, weaknesses, and likely roles….

    GENERAL CAREER STATS
    26.5MPG 12.8PPG .464FG% .335 3% .712FT% 4.7RBG 2.3APG 1.37SPG .30BPG 2.15TO 2.70 Fl

    From 82games.com

    last year with Sac
    Shot selection Shot Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts
    Jump 50% .340 62% 7% 4.0
    Close 40% .571 51% 13% 5.4
    Dunk 7% .889 85% 4% 1.5
    Tips 3% .250 0% 0% 0.2
    Inside 50% .601 57% 11% 7.1

    year before with Mem
    Shot selection Shot Att. eFG% Ast'd Blk'd Pts
    Jump 59% .387 77% 5% 4.1
    Close 32% .520 62% 16% 3.0
    Dunk 8% .915 79% 2% 1.2
    Tips 2% .455 0% 0% 0.1
    Inside 41% .591 65% 13% 4.3

    He has some interesting strengths and weaknesses. But until looking at this I had more focused on his strengths, some of which I knew--excellent rebounder for a wing, high % shooter, and good at drawing fouls, and some I didn't--he is surprisingly adept at steals and blocks for a bigger wing.

    But I do see a couple of issues that make me wonder about his best role for the Rockets.

    1) his assists and A/TO are low. He averages for 2.3 APG for his career, and his A/TO is barely over 1. We don't think of guys like Cat Mobley (vilified around here--2.8APG to 2.1TO), J Richarson, Stack, Rip, Redd, or MMiller being good passers, but all have averaged more and/or had a significantly better ratios. The only starting quality wing I could find in the ballpark of Bonzi's inefficient distribution numbers was Maggette.

    2) Lack of range and jumpshooting efficiency. A) his 3% is marginal 33.5% career, and last year was worse 22% (but only on 45 shots). His effective jumpshooting % the last 2 years is also poor (sub 40% both years), this is way below Wesley, Snyder or Head, actually even below Alston.

    Lets return to Wesley for a 2nd. We may not have thought of him as efficient, but he has over 3APG for us, usually over a 2:1 ratio, and his worst year he shot .365 from 3 land. There is just no way for Wells to do the same role with shooting an open jumper or moving the ball along the perimeter as Wesley could. Head or Snyder have offensive games much suited to this role.

    SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

    A) I am not sure Bonzi and Alston represent the best backcourt to start the game with. Both players chief weaknesses, long range shooting/consistency, is one of the most important things guards have to do with playmakers like Tmac and Yao sucking up the defense. Now maybe Bonzi will shoot above his career % of 33.5 and Alston above his of 35.6, but if not they will allow an awful lot of cheating and packing in around Yao and Tmac, that is what I would do with my defense. In short, I think we will have to see and watch carefully, and one or perhaps both may not be ideal for playing with Tmac/Yao.

    B) I think Bonzi's most pivotal role is when Tmac and/or Yao are out. He is most effective, and he is very effective at it, with the ball in a post up as a 1st or 2nd option. Expect him to shoot the ball more often than not, not pass it, when he gets it. I am not going to call him a black hole, because I reserve that for guys who don’t pass and don’t score efficiently—and Bonzi does the latter, but he certainly isn’t key to a motion and cutting offense or anything. It also makes me think Hayes crashing the boards at the 4 spot makes a lot of sense too when Bonzi has the ball. This can become a more physical and running group too. Overall, his 3rd scorer/get us out of a funk role doesn't mean Bonzi can't start, but it may mean he is subbed early for his rest only to be ready for when Tmac/Yao when we need someone to be another offensive mainstay.

    Anyway, despite some limitations, I am very glad to have him on board and he gives the Rockets some needed scoring punch, physicality and rebounding. Huge signing who gets us in the game with the elites IMO on talent and match-up problems we can cause. I don't forget he was a monster against the Spurs in the playoffs, but we have to remember the Kings didn't have a Yao or Tmac he was playoff off of, rather he was a/the primary option. Mixing him in correctly with the Rockets just isn’t as easy as I thought once you probe some more.
     
  2. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    I think Bonzi's most pivotal role is when Tmac and/or Yao are out.

    As the third scoring option, this is how it should be. Wells allows the Rockets to always have two solid scoring options on the floor for the whole game.
     
  3. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    Correct, but the idea is that Battier can spread the floor and drain jumpers for us. Bonzi can penetrate and get garbage points from rebounds. Plus he can post people up if Yao is out of the game.

    Also, Bonzi's three point numbers from last year were way way off his career average. He's usually good for about 34% (which isn't great by anymeans) but also is significantly better than last years numbers.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    If Bonzi wants to play in the starting lineup, he'll have to be a much better 3-point shooter for us.
     
  5. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    Like I said elsewhere, I'm not too worried about it. Bonzi shoots the same % as Sura beyond the arc for the career. Last year, his role was just to hang around the basket since the Kings had other good shooters who can handle the perimeter duty. My guess is the opposing D will at least have to send a man to run out at him when he's open at the 3 pt line.


    May not be a bad idea on offense, though, to have Battier draw the opposing PF out to the corner 3 pt line and send Bonzi in to crash the offensive boards with Yao.
     
  6. gucci888

    gucci888 Member

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    If Bonzi starts, I expect him to play the Bob Sura role, give us some perimeter rebounding and toughness. Well isn't the greatest shooter but he definitely has a jumper defenses will have to respect. The 04-05 season was the perfect example of how our role players were getting wide open jumpers from the attention Yao/TMac got, hopefully Battier and Wells can fill in nicely enough.
     
  7. AroundTheWorld

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    Nice post, Sir Scarvajal. That said, I am still excited we got him - I think that Battier and Head can make up for some of Wells' weaknesses, and that his strengths will be great to have, especially when Yao and/or T-Mac are out, as you say.

    I can't wait for the season to begin!
     
  8. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    You know what, this got me thinking. Really Wells-Tmac-Battier are relatively interchangable. On offense you can have Wells set up low post or close in usually a PF would, have Battier set up where an SG would, and have Tmac pick his spot. A defense is in trouble here, because Bonzi will overpower most SGs in the low block, but if they shift the size (PF, SF) to Bonzi they are in trouble in covering Tmac and even to keep Battier from getting shots off. I think we have to think non-tradional here, interesting test for JVG coaching. Defensively I don't see a problem, typically Tmac just get's the easiest of the opponents 2-3-4 with Bonzi taking the quickest wing and Battier taking the more difficult forward match-up.

    I still don't know of pairing Alston and Wells much though (barring major, major improvment in Alston's jump shooting), I think we want at least 1 guard out there as a true deadeye from 3 who opponents get punished for cheating off of. Head, JL3, Snyder, VSpan, CS are all more likely to be that dead eye guard than Rafer or Wells. I really wouldn't mind Head or JL3 or VS taking over at the 1 next to Bonzi in the starting/primary line-up.
     
    #8 Desert Scar, Sep 29, 2006
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2006
  9. tiger0330

    tiger0330 Member

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    Good post, Bonzi's agent indirectly acknowledged his 3 point shooting limitation by saying one of the reasons they chose the Rox was he felt his mid-range game would be perfect for the Rox, playing between Yao's post game and T-Mac's long range game. Bonzi is a good player but he definitely has some baggage, I wasn't aware of how much baggage until he decided to sign with the Rox.

    I was most taken with what Battier said or didn't say about Bonzi, he seemed to be not exactly positive about Bonzi's ability to be a team player. I think he said something like this "I know what Bonzi can do, I played with him for 2 years" .... "What you need to win is a commitment by the players to the goal and everyone on the team has to have this focus." Battier bringing this up when talking about Bonzi in the same breath tells me that Bonzi was lacking this commitment when he played in Memphis.

    On the positive side, I think Bonzi is going to be playing his heart out like he did in Sactown to showcase himself and if the Rox have a special kind of season I can see Bonzi really feeding off the winning.
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    That's a good point. He also prefaced his comments about Wells with, "if he plays with the right attitude" or something like that.
     
  11. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    More important than his attitude, or maybe caused by his attitude, was the fact that Bonzi was 30 lbs overweight when he was with Memphis. If he shows up physically in shape (like he did last season), he'll be productive.
     
  12. okierock

    okierock Member

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    I don't know if it will work because I don't know if Bonzi can pass out of the post , but I think Yao at the high post with Bonzi down low might actually be interesting.

    1. Yao is an excellent passer
    2. Yao is an excellent midrange shooter
    3. Bonzi should be posting up a guard that will need help and could draw a double team possibly either Yao's man or Tmac's :D

    Can Bonzi get the open man the ball?
     
  13. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Brad Miller in the high post passing to Bonzi in the low post happened a lot last year. Battier in the high post passing to Bonzi in the low post is interesting. However, Yao in the high post passing to Bonzi in the low post better not happen very often unless Bonzi is on fire.

    On offense, Bonzi at SG and Battier at PF compliment each other very well as long as Bonzi stays out of Yao's way. If Bonzi's presence gives his defender an opportunity to cheat and double Yao, we must be able to punish that ploy or it will be a problem. Against good defensive teams, spacing is just as important as talent and Bonzi has never played with someone like Yao.

    What could end up being huge over the course of the season is Bonzi's presence may allow Tracy and Yao to play fewer minutes. Of course, their stats will go down but winning games and being at our best for the playoffs is the important thing.
     
  14. compucomp

    compucomp Member

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    This is a formula for Yao to go back to the days when he was "soft," "without a mean streak," "plays with too much finesse," and "not aggressive enough." Now that those silly statements have finally lost their relevance I don't want any fuel for them to come back up again.
     
  15. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    What the team has now are options and weapons to deal with various matchups and situations.


    Yao is likely the most effective post player overall, you can post up Bonzi, for example, if you want to physically wear out an opposing star wing player who is guarding him instead of McGrady. You can also post up Bonzi if he's facing a poor defender or an undersized 2. You can spot Yao up for midrange Js or send him crashing the offensive boards if Bonzi has the ball-- or vice versa.

    Even Battier has enough size and post-up skills (remember he was National Player of the Year at Duke as a PF) to exploit certain matchups.

    During the last couple of seasons, the opposing teams could ALWAYS rest a star wing player on D or hide a weak wing defender by taking him off McGrady since guys like Sura, Barry, Wesley, Bogans, etc, were not gonna go off on them. This year, not so much.
     
  16. KALIKULI

    KALIKULI Member

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    I've seen him play in most productive way when coming off the bench when he use to play with Jailblazers and Grizz. He is lethal on the floor coming off the bench. :mad: That's the kind of role JVG should set for Bonzi!
     
  17. DonkeyMagic

    DonkeyMagic Member
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    bonzi isnt a perfect fit, per se. He isnt a great shooter and doesnt create as well off the dribble as you might want a SG. BUt he does help. And like someone else implied, he will be most important when yao and/or tmac are off the court.

    If yao and tmac were both off the court how would that offense look? :eek:


    but you throw tmac in there to post up some smaller guard and at least you have a little something to work with.


    This may be good for snyder too. He will have to work to get on te court. ANd really, imo, i think that he is the biggest X factor for the team.
     
  18. Tango

    Tango Member

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    Some other stats on Bonzi Wells...

    Code:
    Year	Tm	FG%	3P%	FT%	RbR	PER	ORtg	DRtg	lgRtg
    1999	POR	0.550	0.333	0.444	14.8	26.3	96	97	102
    2000	POR	0.492	0.377	0.682	9.2	17.3	103	100	104
    2001	POR	0.533	0.340	0.663	11	18.8	106	102	104
    2002	POR	0.469	0.384	0.741	11.1	18.4	104	103	105
    2003	POR	0.441	0.292	0.722	9.9	15.7	98	101	104
    2004	POR	0.389	0.125	0.778	9	11.3	87	105	103
    	MEM	0.437	0.344	0.750	7.7	13.5	93	103	103
    	TOT	0.427	0.319	0.754	7.9	13	92	103	103
    2005	MEM	0.441	0.346	0.750	9.2	15.9	100	101	106
    2006	SAC	0.463	0.222	0.679	13.9	16.6	101	101	106
    Career		0.464	0.335	0.712	10.4	16.6	100	102	104
    
    PER is at 16.6 - above the league avg 14. ORtg I was a little surprised by - his offensive efficiency is not all that spectacular and pretty much consistently below the league avg. DRtg is quite good though in that he appears to stifle the players matched up with his position. Rebounding Rate is something to really take notice of as a guard however.

    Just a quick comparison of some reboounding stats for guards known as rebounding guards (05-06 Season - except Sura - 04-05 season)...

    2005-2006 (Sura 2004-2005)

    Code:
    Guard ------	RBG	RB40	RBR
    Bonzi Wells	7.7	9.5	13.9
    Larry Hughes	4.5	5.0	7.4
    Steve Francis	4.1	4.8	7.5
    Bob Sura	5.5	7.0	10.2
    Jason Kidd	7.3	7.8	11.4
    Career

    Code:
    Guard ------	RBG	RB40	RBR
    Bonzi Wells	4.7	7.0	10.4
    Larry Hughes	4.7	5.9	8.3
    Steve Francis	5.8	6.0	8.7
    Bob Sura	3.4	5.7	8.4
    Jason Kidd	6.5	7.0	9.9
    RBR = Rebounding Rate which is the % of total missed shots in a game that the player rebounds.

    His rebounding is what probably gives him an above average PER of 16.6 when his offensive efficiency rating is below average.

    The numbers seem to give us some other insight. Besides his contribution to the offense with his midrange game, the two other things that may even more significant are his ability to be a lockdown defender and getting 2nd chance shots for the Rockets.
     
  19. Aloe

    Aloe Member

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    What are Bonzi's best scoring moves. He's certainly capable of scoring a lot of points but I keep reading that he's not a great outside shooter. Is he mostly a post up fast break kind of scorer or what?
     
  20. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    return of the no-look pass?
     

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