It's too early, but since there are a number of polls showing a national tie and some people are gung-ho about them... Trump’s Electoral College Edge Seems to Be Fading (yahoo.com) Nate Cohn Mon, September 11, 2023 The early polls show Donald Trump and President Joe Biden tied nationwide. Does that mean Trump has a clear advantage in the battleground states that decide the Electoral College? It’s a reasonable question, and one I see quite often. In his first two presidential campaigns, Trump fared far better in the battleground states than he did nationwide, allowing him to win the presidency while losing the national vote in 2016 and nearly doing it again in 2020. But there’s a case that his Electoral College advantage has faded. In the midterm elections last fall, Democrats fared about the same in the crucial battleground states as they did nationwide. And over the last year, state polls and a compilation of New York Times/Siena College surveys have shown Biden running as well or better in the battlegrounds as nationwide, with the results by state broadly mirroring the midterms. The patterns in recent polling and election results are consistent with the trends in national surveys, which suggest that the demographic foundations of Trump’s Electoral College advantage might be fading. He’s faring unusually well among nonwhite voters, who represent a larger share of the electorate in noncompetitive than competitive states. As a consequence, Trump’s gains have probably done more to improve his standing in the national vote than in relatively white Northern states likeliest to decide the presidency, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Midterm results typically don’t tell us much about the next general election. Polls taken 15 to 27 months out don’t necessarily augur much, either. But the possibility that Republicans’ Electoral College advantage is diminished is nonetheless worth taking seriously. It appears driven by forces that might persist until the next election, like Biden’s weakness among nonwhite voters and the growing importance of issues — abortion, crime, democracy and education — that play differently for blue and purple state voters. Of course, there is more than a year to go. Biden may regain traction among nonwhite voters or lose ground among white voters, which could reestablish Trump’s Electoral College edge. Perhaps his Electoral College edge could grow even larger than it was in 2020, as some Democrats warned after that election. But at this point, another large Trump Electoral College advantage cannot be assumed. At the very least, tied national polls today don’t mean Trump leads in the states likeliest to decide the presidency. There are three basic pieces of evidence suggesting that Trump’s key advantage might be diminished today: the midterms, the Times/Siena polls and state polls. ... With more than a year to go, none of this is remotely assured to last until the election. But at least for now, a tied race in the national polls doesn’t necessarily mean that Mr. Trump has a big lead in the Electoral College.
when you're losing the Post . . . https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/ Opinion: President Biden should not run again in 2024 By David Ignatius Columnist September 12, 2023 at 7:16 p.m. EDT Joe Biden launched his candidacy for president in 2019 with the words “we are in the battle for the soul of this nation.” He was right. And though it wasn’t obvious at first to many Democrats, he was the best person to wage that fight. He was a genial but also shrewd campaigner for the restoration of what legislators call “regular order.” Since then, Biden has had a remarkable string of wins. He defeated President Donald Trump in the 2020 election; he led a Democratic rebuff of Trump’s acolytes in the 2022 midterms; his Justice Department has systematically prosecuted the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection that Trump championed and, now, through special counsel Jack Smith, the department is bringing Trump himself to justice. What I admire most about President Biden is that in a polarized nation, he has governed from the center out, as he promised in his victory speech. With an unexpectedly steady hand, he passed some of the most important domestic legislation in recent decades. In foreign policy, he managed the delicate balance of helping Ukraine fight Russia without getting America itself into a war. In sum, he has been a successful and effective president. But I don’t think Biden and Vice President Harris should run for reelection. It’s painful to say that, given my admiration for much of what they have accomplished. But if he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement — which was stopping Trump. Biden wrote his political testament in his inaugural address: “When our days are through, our children and our children’s children will say of us: They gave their best, they did their duty, they healed a broken land.” Mr. President, maybe this is that moment when duty has been served. Biden would carry two big liabilities into a 2024 campaign. He would be 82 when he began a second term. According to a recent Associated Press-NORC poll, 77 percent of the public, including 69 percent of Democrats, think he’s too old to be effective for four more years. Biden’s age isn’t just a Fox News trope; it’s been the subject of dinner-table conversations across America this summer. Because of their concerns about Biden’s age, voters would sensibly focus on his presumptive running mate, Harris. She is less popular than Biden, with a 39.5 percent approval rating, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight. Harris has many laudable qualities, but the simple fact is that she has failed to gain traction in the country or even within her own party. Biden could encourage a more open vice-presidential selection process that could produce a stronger running mate. There are many good alternatives, starting with now-Mayor of Los Angeles Karen Bass, whom I wish Biden had chosen in the first place, or Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. But breaking up the ticket would be a free-for-all that could alienate Black women, a key constituency. Biden might end up more vulnerable. Politicians who know Biden well say that if he were convinced that Trump were truly vanquished, he would feel he had accomplished his political mission. He will run again if he believes in his gut that Trump will be the GOP nominee and that he has the best chance to defeat Trump and save the country from the nightmare of a revenge presidency. Biden has never been good at saying no. He should have resisted the choice of Harris, who was a colleague of his beloved son Beau when they were both state attorneys general. He should have blocked then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which has done considerable damage to the island’s security. He should have stopped his son Hunter from joining the board of a Ukrainian gas company and representing companies in China — and he certainly should have resisted Hunter’s attempts to impress clients by getting Dad on the phone. Biden has another chance to say no — to himself, this time — by withdrawing from the 2024 race. It might not be in character for Biden, but it would be a wise choice for the country. Biden has in many ways remade himself as president. He is no longer the garrulous glad-hander I met when I first covered Congress more than four decades ago. He’s still an old-time pol, to be sure, but he is now more focused and strategic; he executes policies systematically, at home and abroad. As Franklin Foer writes in “The Last Politician,” a new account of Biden’s presidency, “he will be remembered as the old hack who could.” Time is running out. In a month or so, this decision will be cast in stone. It will be too late for other Democrats, including Harris, to test themselves in primaries and see whether they have the stuff of presidential leadership. Right now, there’s no clear alternative to Biden — no screamingly obvious replacement waiting in the wings. That might be the decider for Biden, that there’s seemingly nobody else. But maybe he will trust in democracy to discover new leadership, “in the arena.” I hope Biden has this conversation with himself about whether to run, and that he levels with the country about it. It would focus the 2024 campaign. Who is the best person to stop Trump? That was the question when Biden decided to run in 2019, and it’s still the essential test of a Democratic nominee today.
Dude what are you smoking? How in the world is climate NOT the biggest risk we face as humanity? Putin or XI are not going launch nukes all of a sudden. Regardless of what we do as a society the world is getting warmer and the issue is already destroying lives in poor countries. Poor countries and even nuclear armed countries (pakistan) are already facing massive problems. Pakistan was literally covered in 1/3 water because of recent flooding. Its just facinating watching white men in developed country downplay the challenges poor people face because of climate change. DW did an amazing documentary on this last week
Based on his post history the biggest risk to humanity is making sure trans people are treated like dirt. Forget the fact that climate change has almost wiped out humanity before in the past, and there's another planet right next to us that shows evidence of what it would be like to live in an atmosphere full of CO2. If climate change isn't such a big deal, why dont you, Elon, and Joe Rogan go blast off on an expedition to Venus. Other than an undiscovered black hole in our galaxy emerging, or a Comet, like... yeah... climate change from too much CO2 in our atmosphere isn't THAT far off if not dealt with. Will we be Venus overnight???.. no, but even become Venus lite spells doom either way for humanity.
This is one thing I do think we need to be careful about in our rhetoric. Yes Climate Change is a major threat and possibly the worst threat we face to human civilization. To say that we could become Venus though is an exaggeration and I think too often we see Climate change argued for an against with alarmist predictions. What I would state though is that climate change might not be an extinction level threat it certainly is a threat to our economy and our civilization. It’s also not an abstract threat as it’s not a matter of when it will happen but how much. Just a few days ago Hong Kong and Libya got as much rain in a few hours as they do all of a regular year. In Libya multiple dam failures from that killed over 5,000. Even in Hong Kong which has a very good infrastructure over a hundred died in mudslides and flooding. Just in Houston alone a 100 year rain now seems to happen every year. our current infrastructure and development pattern can’t handle this. The costs to deal with increased floods, fires, droughts and other associated disasters is going to far outweigh the costs of transitioning to other energy sources.
related Biden implies black and Hispanic workers don’t have ‘high school diplomas’ — and WH tries to clean it up in official transcript https://nypost.com/2023/09/15/biden...orkers-to-those-without-high-school-diplomas/ excerpt: President Biden has been ripped after he inferred that African American and Hispanic workers don’t have “high school diplomas” in another humiliating gaffe. The 80-year-old president was touting the economy at Prince George’s Community College in Maryland on Thursday when he made his latest blunder. “We’ve seen record lows in unemployment particularly — and I’ve focused on this my whole career — particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans, you know, the workers without high school diplomas,” he said in televised remarks. However, according to the transcript released by the White House, there was supposed to be the word “and” separating the African American, Hispanic workers and veterans from those without high school diplomas. Biden’s speech would then read: “We’ve seen record lows in unemployment particularly — and I’ve focused on this my whole career — particularly for African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans, you know, and the workers without high school diplomas.” more at the link
It's hilarious how you folks pretend anyone gives a **** what he thinks. Biden runs the dnc and will do whatever he wants. Oh no some old white man thinks biden is too old. Who gives a ****
Top Democrats’ Bullishness on Biden 2024 Collides With Voters’ Worries Party leaders have rallied behind the president’s re-election bid, but as one top Democratic strategist put it, “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/17/us/politics/biden-democrats-voter-concerns.html excerpt: Mr. Biden’s campaign and his allies argue that much of the intraparty dissent will fade away next year, once the election becomes a clear choice between the president and former President Donald J. Trump, the dominant leader in the Republican primary field. But their assurances have not tamped down worries about Mr. Biden from some top Democratic strategists and many of the party’s voters, who approve of his performance but worry that Mr. Biden, who will be 82 on Inauguration Day, may simply not be up for another four years — or even the exhausting slog of another election. “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll,” said James Carville, a longtime party strategist, who worries that a lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Biden could lead to lower Democratic turnout in 2024. “You can’t look at what you look at and not feel some apprehension here.” more
