I do realize that this era of the Astros are not retiring anytime soon... except for Verlander and Greinke, but how much does Beltrán's HOF votes next year an indicator of the chances of Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, Verlander, and even Greinke to make it in. Keeping in mind that sportswriters from elsewhere also don't really make a distinction on when the sign stealing ended. Are there any exceptions?
People have completely forgotten about Beltrans role even though he was basically the godfather of the whole scheme. It won't be entirely insignificant, but it will be minimal. Having said that, he kind of has a fringe first ballot resume, so it might be enough to keep him from going in his first year. I don't believe in the first ballot nonsense, and I certainly think his peak and cumulative numbers are good enough, but some writers clearly do. When all is said and done, Altuve is gonna almost singlehandedly wear the scarlett letter, even though he was likely the least guilty hitter on the team. It's completely ridiculous, but all of the other players (maybe not Bregman) will likely have extended runs outside of Houston that will wash away any attachment beyond a footnote.
I don't really think this "scandal" is going to carry much weight when it comes to HOF votes, I think if anything that pendulum will swing the other way. A lot of the outrage was manufactured, and it had died down by the last WS. I also think the loudest sportswriters were not a good idea of how everybody felt about the "scandal".
Too lazy (or busy with work, which I should be doing right now...) to look, but are Beltrán's number really that compelling? He always struck me as a "hall-of-very-good" type, not as a sure bet. I mean there are plenty of guys who had a couple great postseason runs but whose full body of work simply isn't HoF material. That's where my head has 'Los, but I haven't ever looked at his numbers objectively either.
He was a star switch hitting cf that hit 400+ HR. He has a great postseason resume. Before the scandal he was probably a first ballot guy with how respected he was around baseball. His resume would definitely end up in the HOF eventually.
I just didn't follow him after he left for the Mets. Didn't even realize he got to 400 jacks. That for me doesn't make him a slam dunk, but add his defense in, and I get where you're coming from.
He isn't a 99%, not even worth thinking about hall of famer. However if he didn't get in, his cumulative resume would be the best non PED resume not in the hall...by a lot. Nobody with 1400 RBI and Runs has failed to get in, he has almost 1600 of both. He also has the highest postseason OPS ever with 200 PA and 9 all star games.
He's Andre Dawson with a great postseason resume. I think the fact of it being a popularity contest is what makes the biggest difference in Beltran having been a potential 1st ballot guy while Dawson took 10 years.
I don't think the voters will let it shade Beltran's career on the field, although it probably should because there's no way he just started stealing signs while coaching. The voters see it as separate. But as for the Astros, it will. The best bet for Correa and Altuve is to get out of Houston, go to the Yankees, and resurrect their career artificially. There is a chance that the voters get far away enough from it in 15 years that they look back on it as silly, but because we fought it so hard, it got legs, and the needle moved on us significantly with not only the media, the but the fans. likely impact will be felt. Tough call. But I don't see Beltran as the litmus test. The first Asto playa will be the test. So strategically it will be better if Correa hits the ballot first to clear some smoke with his personality.
