[Basketball Reference] NBA League Averages (Historical averages -- year to year)

Some interesting reading in there, OP. I took a quick look starting with the 1980-81 season, when the average height increased from 6'6" (where it had been a really long time) to 6'7" where, to my amazement, it has stayed ever since. FG attempts used to be higher, dropping by 10 a game at one point, but creeping back up. FT attempts dropped significantly this past season compared to the previous year. Not something that hasn't happened before, but those calls not made on Harden couldn't have accounted for all of the drop ( from 23.1 to 21.7). There's endless stuff!

 

Tony Brothers singlehandedly lower the FTA average by not calling fouls against Harden's defenders.

 

Of the main categories, the two biggest trends I see that are changing the game, in an entertaining way, is the continued increase in PACE, and of course the 3P attempts per game, even though overall 3 point % hasn't changed that much.

League played at its fastest pace since 90/91.

The result is the highest ORtgs the last two years ever for the league as a whole (this past year slightly behind 2 years ago).

And its not like defense is bad, just that the game is more attuned to how to score efficiently.

It makes for great basketball, and imo, is the thing that makes basketball fun and the most watchable, IN SPITE of the complete and utter lack of parity.

 

ORtgs is pace independent. Teams are scoring more efficiently, more points per possession. I think it has to do with analytics showing what kind of shots are more efficient (the so-called 3pts or layup m.o.). Teams are adopting their strategies to this. In a way, it is no difference than the evolution of any other sport. When you have better knowledge of the mechanisms of the sport, you get to design your game accordingly.

On the other hand, defenses are getting more sophisticated too. Defensive scouting is no longer just eyeballing game tapes. You now have tracking technology to know every tendency a player has, where he shoots the best, etc. I guess defense is just not catching up as fast as the offense goes.

 

Eh, not entirely.

If you add a lot of fast breaks which are high scoring events, it will skew Ortg a bit.

 

Look at how offensive rebounds decreases every year. When everyone is at the 3 point line doing catch and shoots, that's what happens. I blame MDA and Morey

 

Yes, fast breaks are by nature more efficient. But they are usually not an "offensive system." There are exceptions. MDA's fast pace offense in Phoenix was one example. But those are not widely adopted.

My guess is that the overall pace increase is due to the abandonment of the low post offense which takes a longer time to run.