[Basketball Prospectus] Rating the Small Forward Free Agents

tshay · Jul 7, 2009

For the stat geeks-

Artest and Ariza actually measure similarly with Ariza being 5 years younger:

Rating the Small Forwards by Kevin Pelton

If we look strictly at age and production, there's an argument that Ariza belongs at the top of this list, which makes him a pretty nice value for the mid-level exception for the Rockets. Again, the fit isn't perfect. The possession problem I wrote about with Artest going to L.A. works in the other direction for Houston and Ariza. With Tracy McGrady sidelined for at least the first half of the season, the Rockets are in need of creators even if Yao Ming is able to play, and Ariza isn't really that guy. Of course, if Yao doesn't play, Houston's primary mindset is stockpiling assets for the future, and Ariza is a nice one. Even without the benefit of the lights-out three-point shooting that helped carry the Lakers in the postseason he rated essentially as valuable as any free-agent small forward save Odom. There are plenty of good years ahead of Ariza.
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I've already written in BP Unfiltered about what Artest's addition means to the Lakers, but let me wax a little more positive on the addition. Adjusted plus-minus has also historically rated Artest as one of the league's top 10-15 players, and done so consistently enough that I'm willing to believe Artest's advanced individual stats--and the erratic play we often see on the court--sell him short. While Trevor Ariza is a fine defender, Artest will be an upgrade at that end of the floor, and his size could allow for some interesting cross-matching with Odom at times should they team up in the Lakers' frontcourt. Offensively, Artest has put up consecutive seasons of 38-percent-plus shooting from beyond the arc, so it's reasonable to expect him to be capable of making the spot-up threes the Lakers' offense creates for its small forwards. There are certainly legitimate reasons to believe he will work well in L.A. It's just that they require a little more faith in Artest than I possess.
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JayGoogle · Jul 7, 2009

IDK if Artest is a BETTER man defender than Ariza outright.

Lakers are still going to have problems with the Roy's of the world and the quicker 2s and 3s. That is of course if Kobe can't guard them. Artest is good for guarding guys like Pierce, Melo, and Lebron so I guess that means much more even if Kobe has to guard a Manu or Broy every now and then.

But Artest constantly got destroyed by those guys, he had no shot at guarding them.

durvasa · Jul 7, 2009

Not so much in the playoffs, but during the regular season I thought Artest did a pretty good job on Roy. In past years, he's done a good job on him as well.

University Blue · Jul 7, 2009

Was it just me or did officiating and opponent physicality seem a little more balanced with Artest on the team?

Marcus Bryant · Jul 7, 2009

Ariza can replace Battier as starting SF, then Battier will be spendable in another trade that may bring us a decent creator.

Melechesh · Jul 7, 2009

Marcus Bryant said:

Ariza can replace Battier as starting SF, then Battier will be spendable in another trade that may bring us a decent creator.
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I'm thinking Rudy Gay.

slowmustang · Jul 7, 2009

Rudy Gay may be many things but creator he is not.

Melechesh · Jul 7, 2009

slowmustang said:

Rudy Gay may be many things but creator he is not.
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If ur looking for Tracy's replacement ur not gonna find one as creative as he used to be.
Rudy scores about 19 ppg on 45% last season.
Thats enough for me. Ballhog or not, we desperatly need a scorer on the wing.

BamBam · Jul 7, 2009

... LOL...

If I ran an NBA team, I'd want a Ryan Bowen on my bench. Even at age 33,
he continues to contribute through sheer force of hustle when called upon,
and he's a useful presence in the locker room and in practice.

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