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Astros vs. Nationals World Series Odds

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Stros, Oct 20, 2019.

  1. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    good thing its extremely rare.
     
  2. HTown2017Champs

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    Ugh f'ing Soto. Hate him more and more. At least it ended up meaning nothing.

    Now time to come back. LFG!!!!!!

    EDIT: Wrong thread LOL
     
  3. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton

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    Yeah, but this whole bet was easy money, y'all were telling me. Dammit.
     
  4. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Hate losing and being down in the series, but odds still in Astros favor.

    Make it come to fruition, Stros !!
     
  5. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    Annoyed at all the Stros will sweep talk, but ultimately, it doesn't matter. Tomorrow night is huge. Strass is tough as nails.
     
  6. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I don’t think that’s true. My guess would be the Nats are now a slight favorite to win the series.
     
  7. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Will be interesting to see.
     
  8. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    There are a lot of factors that go into this, not just true probability. Because the largest liability in most books are on the Astros winning the World Series, the Nats will probably still be favored or even money now so that ticket holders will be incentivized to hedge.
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

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    Hopefully you now see the problem with this theory. If you try to buy yourself out of the bet by betting on Washington tomorrow, you could very well double down on your losses if the Astros win tomorrow but still lose the series.

    Really, the smart play if you really believe the Astros are that much better than the Nationals would be to double down on your bet with much better odds now.
     
  10. supastevefoo

    supastevefoo Member

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    903 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R +1½ -140 +160
    904 Houston Astros J Verlander - R -1½ +120 -170
     
  11. supastevefoo

    supastevefoo Member

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    gonna double down on astros series price when it comes out!
     
  12. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Yeah, I’m in the process of deciding now - for me it’s either double down on tonight’s game or just let it ride. Obviously if we lose tonight it’s pretty much a wrap - losing with Cole and then JV tonight would be a devastating blow to this team.

    If I really wanted to I could get myself out because I put a sizable (albeit less) bet down in Vegas back in July on the Astros prior to Greinke at 4.5 to 1 but that’d be such a waste. Even though they lost last night I saw what I needed to see from the Nats bullpen. If we can just extend the series, even if we’re down 3-2 coming back home I’ll take our chances.
     
  13. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I was thinking it’d be pickem or Nats -110 to win the series now. True odds probability Nats maybe 55% chance to win right now?
     
  14. jakedasnake

    jakedasnake Member

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    Astros getting around -119. I am fairly confident in that bet but still a little worried about tonight's game. If I am confident in the Astros taking the series then I should be confident in the Astros winning tonight which obviously will be a toss up game. If we do lose tonight as Htown Stros mentioned that will be nearly impossible to come back from down 0-2 with our best pitchers spent with 3 games to go in Nats ballpark. This makes me think I shouldn't be so confident in a bet at -119 but I am confident in these Astros to play better tonight.
     
  15. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    Crap, I meant to write the Astros will probably still be favored. I don't know what the true probability is. My point was that the books also factor in minimizing liability from futures tickets (along with other things like action-inducing lines), so the new series price isn't necessarily true odds.

    So assuming the Nats are like a 55% true odds favorite, the Astros are probably still favored in many books because the books want more Nats bets at this time. There's still just way too much money (like Mattress Mac) bet on the Astros on outstanding futures tickets.
     
    #115 Kim, Oct 23, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  16. PhiSlammaJamma

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    At this point, nothing has really changed. Even looking at the worst case scenario down 0-3, you still have Cole better than Corbin in game 4, Verlander better than Scherzer in game 5, Greinke better than Strasburg in game 6, and Cole better than Sanchez in game 7. There's no scenario where I wouldn't like our chances in each game. The fans are over reacting with doom and gloom scenarios when in all 7 games we are the odds on favorite to win each game on paper. Even if the Nationals flip their rotation, the only advantage they ever have is if they match up Scherzer against Greinke in a game 6 but that could never happen.
     
    #116 PhiSlammaJamma, Oct 23, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  17. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    You wrote it correctly. And you were right and I was wrong- I thought even with all that going on the Astros might be pick em or even the slightest of dogs.
     
  18. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    If it’s 0-3 we are dead. Way too optimistic/naive here, and in your scenario, Cole would be going twice on short rest.
     
  19. DCkid

    DCkid Contributing Member

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    Come again?
     
  20. PhiSlammaJamma

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    If having a better era 2.93, better record 18-5, better FIP 3.22, and better era+ of 154 this year aren't enough, how about that cy young. It's on display. It's a clean sweep. Greinke has been better than Strasburg and there are layers to this. Washington fans have Strasburg blinders on right now, which is fine, he's more than decent, a movie star, but he still is what he is at this point when compared to Greinke.
     
    #120 PhiSlammaJamma, Oct 23, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019

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