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Astros Trade option(s)

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by ZeroPoint, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I would rate the chances of that happening slim; certainly less less likely than, say, Mike Fiers being an ace-level pitcher come October. Or Charlie Morton being healthy come October.

    Yep because.... they're healthy. If the Astros continue to roll-up 2-inning starts (and I believe they've had 3 since Keuchel went down), or even > 5-inning starts, their bullpen is going to be gassed come October.

    ETA: For me, *health,* not performance, is my concern. If you guarantee me one of DK/LMJ + Fiers, McHugh and Morton, sure - I'll stand pat. But that seems like a remote possibility right now.
     
    #521 Hey Now!, Jun 27, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2017
    eric.81 likes this.
  2. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    That's cool, but why?.....

    We need pitching over a 3B cleanup bat for our farm.
     
  3. KeuchelForPresident

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    I agree, if we go after an A's pitcher, I'd be happier to see it be Manaea than Gray. Manaea looks to have survived his introduction to the big leagues and the adjustment that entails. Gray, on the other hand, doesn't look to be on the upswing in his career.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Weird hypothetical. Was DeRosa saying that trade was actually being discussed between the two teams, or was he just suggesting that was a trade both sides should do?

    Shopping Machado makes sense for Baltimore. Giving up 4 top young players for a superstar position player with only 1 addl year of control doesn't make much sense to me. Obviously adding Machado makes the lineup better and may even make Houstons lineup one of the best ever (the 7-8-9 hitters would be Reddick, Gurriel, and Marisnick!). But giving up Bregman, who should be a core piece for the Astros for the next 5+ years, just doesn't make sense. If Bregman was replaced with a pitching prospect (or even 2 pitching prospects) like Paulino, Musgrove, or F Perez, then it starts to make a lot more sense, as Bregman can play multiple positions (including LF where there will be a hole next season if they trade Fisher), and can move back to 3B after Machado leaves in free agency.
     
  5. Silver Fox

    Silver Fox Member

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    Haven't seen much discussion on this, but it seems the Giants should be open to dealing Bumgarner (has a AAA rehab start on Friday). They may not want to deal him but their farm does not have much top end talent and the NL West appears to be pretty stacked for the next few years. He has 2 more years on his contract at $12M/yr.

    Seems like it would be smart for them to look into dealing Bumgarner for the likes of Tucker, Martes, etc... That's an ace I can get behind unloading several prospects for (provided he's healthy).

    Would also try to get Zach Britton from the Orioles to sure up the pen. Another team headed the wrong direction with no high end talent on the farm.

    Thoughts?
     
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    It's not that I don't want another pitcher. The problem is the asking price. Quintana was available before the season but it would have cost Martes and Tucker plus other guys. If that is still the asking price I am not interested. Gray does not impress me at all. He is averaging about a 5.00 era since the start of last season.

    Someone brought up the Randy Johnson trade. If a player like that was available I would go all in even for a rental. I just don't see who that would be. Only player that is remotely close is Yu Darvish and Texas isn't trading him when they are 2 games back of the wild card and especially not to the Astros. Same goes for Chris Archer and the Rays.... they are 1 game out. No way they trade him. I would go all in for deGrom but I doubt New York trades him. They will probably try to unload Harvey instead.

    To me the likely available guys are Quintana, Coles, Gray. Then possibles are Cueto and Verlander.

    I think the contract of Cueto probably takes him off the list with 4 years plus an option at 21/22 million a season. Same goes for a 34 year old Verlander still owed 28 mil a season for 2 years and he just had to have an MRI on his groin.

    Go get me left handed reliever Brad Hand from San Diego and I would be happy.

    Britton is making rehab appearances in the minors. I would rather have Hand at this point.
     
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  7. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Signed for 12 million each of the next two years makes him even more valuable than just how good he is

    I seriously doubt they would move him, with him, Cueto, Samardz all signed for at least 2+ years each after this year, I doubt they will go into sell mode

    BUT IF THEY DID

    He is a guy I would be ok putting Bregman, Martes, Fisher all in a deal for. If it took Bregman, Martes and Tucker...i'd probably have to consider that too, Bum is that good, and for 12 million each of the next two years not expensive. McCullers, Bumgarner, Keuchel, Morton, Peacock...yea sign me up
     
  8. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    The thing that makes Cueto very tough to go after is the contract and the fact that he isn't having a good year. His 4.20 ERA is only better than 3 guys who have started a game for us this year, Paulino, Martes and Musgrove. I know he has the potential to be a great pitcher, but having a rough year. The 18 HR's he has given up would ties Fiers for the most given up on our team this year, 9th most in all of baseball.

    Then consider he has an opt out after this year, so if you trade a lot for him and he improves in the second half and helps you win, he could opt out and you gave up a lot for a rental...

    if you trade a lot for him and he continues to do poorly, you could be stuck with him at 21 million a year through the year 2021. We will have to pay Keuchel starting in 2019, Altuve in 2020 and Springer and Giles in 2021. Would not be good to be stuck with an underperforming 21 million dollar player when trying to ante up big money for those guys. I don't think he is a possibility in any way for us, just doesn't seem like a Luhnow type of move

    I actually think Cole or Gray are the most likely two. If the Sox price for Quintana was too high for us before the season, we certainly won't be giving up that type of deal for him now with him struggling this year.

    deGrom is the interesting piece, with the Mets failing to win big with their vaunted young pitchers over the last few years (yes they made the WS a few years ago and got smashed, but overall they haven't reached expectations) it wouldn't shock me if they moved him. But, we would have to start any possible Mets deal with Bregman as deGrom would be very expensive, and they have a huge need at 3B. Would likely take Bregman, Tucker and Martes...not sure i'd do that for deGrom
     
  9. Silver Fox

    Silver Fox Member

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    Yep would be interesting to see if they decide to entertain offers for him.

    MadBum
    LMJ
    Keuchel

    Would be a nice 1-2-3 with the playoff pen including:

    Giles
    Britton (go big right?)
    Harris
    Devo
    Peacock
    Morton
    Gregerson
    Feliz
    Fiers/McHugh
     
  10. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    He had a rough start to the season (5.10 in April). Since May, his ERA is under 4 - in fact, 3.82 in May; 3.82 thus far in June. And his strikeouts are just a tick below 9/9. Altogether, he's gone at least 7 innings in 7 of his 16 starts and he's pitched into the 6th 13 times.

    Agree on contract - but the Giants might be willing to take a piece of it. He'd be... the safest bet of the pitchers likely to be available. As much as Cole and Gray intrigue, they're not nearly as proven. deGrom would probably fall into that category, too.
     
  11. the shark

    the shark Member

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    The Giants are a franchise that doesn't just talk about winning WS they do whatever they can to put themselves in a great position to do so. That said I highly doubt they're even thinking about parting ways with MB who's one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy and one of the best playoff pitchers as well. Obviously when he went down their playoff chances took a major hit. They'll be back at it next yr with a healthy MB.
     
  12. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    Jaime Garcia has been terrible lately but he is another target that could definitely help. Maybe we could get ATL to thrown in Bartolo Colon and we can bat him at DH instead of Beltran.
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Realistically the only buyers who also need starting pitching and can offer the type of prospects that Houston can are the Cubs and Yankees, with the Blue Jays also possibly in the mix. Boston, Cleveland, LA, Tampa, Washington, and Colorado all have full rotations. KC, LAA, Minnesota, Seattle, Texas, and StL don't have the prospects. And Milwaukee probably isn't inclined to buy significantly this season.

    It's pretty obvious that Gray and Quintana are being shopped, probably pretty aggressively. Cole, Cueto, and Verlander may be out there, but all 3 situations are complicated due to either the team not knowing if they want to compete next year or contract status or both. DeGrom and Archer are very unlikely to be moved.

    With all that in mind, here's my prediction for the deadline results:

    Sonny Gray goes to Houston for a package built around Martes and 4 other good prospects, but doesn't include Tucker (or Bregman).

    Justin Verlander goes to New York, with New York taking on the entire contract AND sending 2 good prospects (not Torres) to Detroit.

    Jose Quintana also goes to New York for Frazier and 3 other good prospects. New York's farm is reduced to Torres and 2-3 other very good prospect. There's a big hullabaloo about who gets bumped from NYs rotation.

    Cole, Darvish, and Cueto and all the other ToR options stay put. BoR options like Garcia, Hellickson, Shields, Holland, and Volquez are distributed amongst also-rans like Toronto, Baltimore, and Minnesota. Dark horse to look out for is Atlanta as a surprise buyer for a ToR arm.
     
  14. Baseballa

    Baseballa Member

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    I've been one of the loudest advocates on here of getting another SP, but there's no way in hell I give up 5 "good" prospects for Sonny Gray. Certainly not including someone of Martes's caliber.

    There are some pitchers who I would empty the farm for. Sonny Gray is not one of them.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    So this package would be a bad deal?

    Martes
    Fisher
    Y Alvarez
    Reed
    Armenteros

    I think that's painful, but that's what it is going to take.
     
  16. Baseballa

    Baseballa Member

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    I think that is an absurd package for a guy who hasn't been good in 2 years. If that's what it takes, then I hang up the phone and wait for the A's to sober up.
     
  17. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    How does it work with a team agreeing to pick up part of a contract, when the player could opt out of the contract at the end of the season?

    Would be interesting to see how that would be handled, if they do indeed shop him. Would be fine having him in our rotation, just wouldn't want to see us not be able to sign DK/Altuve/Springer in any part because of his contract
     
  18. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Gray has 65 Ks in 64.2 IP; his BABIP is .320, above league-average and not terribly surprising considering he pitches for a notoriously bad defensive team. If the Astros' D could regulate that - so, roughly, 2.80 the rest of the way - and he continued to strike batters out at a rate of 1+/IP, he'd be a significant upgrade. Especially if he could concurrently cut down on the walks. He's also 27 and dirt cheap.
     
  19. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't think there's any chance the Astros resign Springer. Well, I shouldn't say *any* chance - but he's a prime candidate to let walk, given his free agency age (31).
     
  20. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    If that is what it would take for Gray, then i'd have to pass

    Even if the advanced stats continue to say he should be better, his results just haven't been very good. Yes yes yes, I know ERA isn't necessarily a good stat to determine future success, and the advanced stats are...but at some point, when a player continues to produce a poor ERA, maybe he becomes the case that he is what he is....in 33 starts since the beginning of last year, he has thrown 181.2 innings (5.5 innings per start) and has an ERA of 5.25....that's not the kind of "success" you give up a package like that for, regardless of what kind of advanced numbers you have

    A "quality start" of 6 innings and 3 or less runs isn't exactly "awesome", and yet in 11 starts this year Sonny has had 5 QS's...that's just not good

    Now, if the advanced numbers say he should be better than what he has, and you want to "take a shot" and give up a package of Fisher, Reed, Teoscar, C Perez for him, that's all fine and good. That could work out well for either team (and yes I do know that Oakland wouldn't accept that package)....but to give up your top prospect, your #4 prospect, along with 3 others, for a pitcher who has been bad, isn't smart
     
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