A Your reasoning is sound. However, the downside to wanting specific players is that it gives the other team ammunition. I heard that the Astros specifically wanted Smith over Shaw - likely because they view Shaw's most likely position as 2b while Smith has potential at 3b and very real potential at 1b/RF. The presence of Altuve impacts that. I also heard the Astros specifically wanted Wesneski and would not move off of him. By doing those 2 things, it gives the other team the ability to move off of including another prospect, who would easily be the least valuable component of the deal anyway. I trust Brown and the nerd cave to identify talent and maximize pitching.
Paredes posted an .840 OPS (31HR 98 RBI) in 2023, and had a .792 OPS last season until he got banished to Wrigley Field, the worst possible park for his hitting style. People keep talking about him like he's just a "nice little player", there's every reason to think he's gonna be an impactful bat, particularly playing half his games at MMP, and we have him for 3 seasons.
Paredes has been a known target of the Astros for a few seasons. He’s no Tucker, but he’s no slouch; the guy can carry his weight in the lineup and has good enough defensive skills. Then the Astros played very good even without Tucker last season; with Tucker they would have been atop the American League, but they are most definitely a playoff team even without Tucker. Inserting Paredes get them a few wins and makes them a mid 90’s win team. The addition of Wasnaski might replace Kikuchi, if the Astros coaches did their homework and are justified by their exuberance. The Astros now have Cam Smith a likely true blue chip prospect. And he is a guy the Astros prioritized over the other Cubs touted prospects. This trade solidified the Astros for this season, bringing in 2 MLB players for this season, and gets the Astros a prospect the Astros obviously are high that was just drafted a few months ago.
Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith Astros making Future Franchise Players trades over the Years. Jeff Luhnow - Yordan Alvarez James Click - Yainer Diaz Dana Brown - Cam Smith
From reading, it seems it was either/or but not both between Shaw and Cam Smith. The Astros absolutely insisted on Cam Smith. The Astros getting the 3 guys they specifically targeted sounds like a plus. And it better be because finding an American League MVP candidate isn’t easy, teams pay out the wazoo when those fellas hit free agency.
I think there are some clear strengths and weaknesses in the Astros organization right now: Strengths: 1. Evaluating pitching and being able to maximize the value of pitchers they acquire. They appear to still do this better than just about any other team, and they do it both with pitchers they acquire via trade and pitchers they acquire via the draft and international signing period. Examples JUST from 2024: Hunter Brown, Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Yusei Kikuchi, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Jake Bloss. 2. Dana Brown has a demonstrated track record of being an expert at evaluating US amateurs and minor leaguers. Success stories (so far) from his 1 reviewable draft with the Astros: Brice Matthews, Jake Bloss, Chase Jaworsky, James Hicks, Ethan Pecko, Pascanel Ferreras, Nehomar Ochoa. 3. Jim Crane has demonstrated a willingness to spend money and maintain a top 5 payroll. 4. They’ve shown a knack for knowing when to cut bait with their own players. Springer, Correa, Keuchel, Verlander, and a few others have not been worth the contracts they’ve signed after leaving the Astros. Very very few of the players/prospects Houston has traded away have found significant success. Weaknesses: 1. They have a glaring lack of resources to add talent to their farm system: a near-decade of late drafts and buyer-side deadline deals made worse by lost draft picks from scandal penalties and the Hader signing. 2. It’s a small sample and it was under different GMs, but they’ve had some misses in the 2nd and 3rd tier of the free agent market: Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, Kendall Graveman, Pedro Baez, and Michael Brantley V2 have cost the Astros over $120M over the last 3 seasons and lost them more games than they won. 3. They are not willing/able to offer large, long term contracts. Whether it’s simple math or a tic of the owner, they are not signing guys for anything beyond 6 years and even at that, they are requiring a discount for anything over 5 years. This trade played to the org’s strengths and mitigated their weaknesses. It’s exactly what they should be doing. It’s also why they should be shopping Framber Valdez, Victor Caratini, and Ryan Pressly right now.
This was my analysis on the pod- even if you unlock nothing in the pitcher and the minor leaguer doesn’t play a game in the bigs- Paredes is liable to out up more WAR than Tucker for pretty similar money over the remainder of their team club controls. If that alone is what happened (say 9 war for 30M or so to 6 war for 20M or so) you can’t say the astros got a good deal, but it won’t be a fiasco either since a paredes is at a position of need. This deal, at worst for the Astros, is probably a push and if they hit on all 3 guys which there is reason to believe they could it might be a franchise altering type of thing. Here’s hoping.
I have been thinking of a way to better value $$/WAR. It feels like just saying WAR is worth X is incomplete, even if you separate pisition players, starting pitching, and relief pitching. A higher WAR player is worth more. Even more PER WAR. I need to really get into it and adjust the numbers, but initial thoughts: 0-1.0 WAR is worth $2M 1.0-2.0 WAR is worth $5M 2.0-3.0 WAR is worth $6M 3.0-4.0 WAR is worth $7M 4.0-5.0 WAR is worth $8M 5.0-6.0 WAR is worth $10M 6.0-7.0 WAR is worth $12M 7.0+ WAR is worth $15 per WAR The value is determined as WAR is accrued. Example: player with 1 WAR = $2M player with 2 WAR = $7M player with 3 WAR = $13M player with 4 WAR = $20M player with 5 WAR = $28M player with 6 WAR = $38M player with 7 WAR = $50M player with 8 WAR = $65M player with 9 WAR = $80M These probably need to be adjusted as I just threw numbers down without much analysis
Those numbers don’t look right to me, if yes/ conceptually you are definitely correct. I don’t have exact numbers for everywhere on your chart but I think that I feel pretty comfortable with the following: 2 WAR is a regular average quality every day guy. That’s worth 12M in the open market easily- maybe 15. 4 war is fringe all star- that’s worth 25M- especially if that war is mostly produced offensively. 6 plus WAR is top 10-15 type player in game- 35 or 40M. beyond that I just think it breaks because 8+ war guys are so few and far between. Almost impossible to value.
I just thought of the idea and put ascending numbers in a post for a visual. As I said, I need to think about the actual numbers and what they are, how fast they escalate, etc. But I like the idea that all WAR is not equal and a 4 WAR player is more than twice as much as a 2 WAR guy, etc.
it sure seems like the WAR/$ equation should not be linear, but there are some interesting articles on this https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/
Nobody has played yet. It could be another Glenn Davis trade. Or it could be a deal where none of the pieces really do anything and it sucks.
You’re hilarious. Looking just at the playoffs as your indicator is the pure definition of cherry picking our offensive stats at home. You’ve moved the goal posts in your argument by taking a sample size of 3% to argue your point. Try going back to your original comment and tell me how I’m supposed to discern “our offense is dismal at home over the past 7 years” to mean playoffs only? Nice try, cupcake.
Excellent freaking analysis. Primarily because I agree with everything but that’s worth a shave and shower somewhere
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5999910/2024/12/17/astros-cam-smith-expectations-kyle-tucker-trade/ … “(The trade) caught me completely off guard,” Smith added. “Before going into pro ball, I had no idea how that life was.” Smith doesn’t scour social media or pay much mind to any outside talk. He only learned on Monday that outside publications are already labeling him the Astros’ best prospect. “I was in disbelief. I couldn’t believe that,” Smith said. “It kind of puts me in a spot where they expect a lot out of me, so I expect a lot out of myself. I like that pressure of high expectations. I feel like that would get the best out of me, having that title on my name.” Last week, friends began to inundate Smith with various posts linking him to potential packages for Tucker. Chicago general manager Carter Hawkins gave Smith the official word on Friday afternoon. An hour later, Houston’s Dana Brown called. “He said he saw me play one time and he would never forget how good I played,” Smith said. “That was awesome just to hear that — that he had high thoughts about me. I couldn’t believe that. The Astros’ GM speaks highly of me, which is crazy. But it’s reality now.” Two rival talent evaluators who scouted Smith marveled at his athleticism and an offensive approach that continued to improve across his two collegiate seasons. All 24 of Smith’s defensive starts in the Cubs’ system came at third base. Both evaluators were skeptical that third base is Smith’s long-term home, though one said Smith’s “character makes him easier to bet on knowing he will be driven to do what it takes.” One evaluator wondered if right field may be Smith’s eventual permanent position — fitting given the player he was traded for. Brown said Smith will split time at third base, first base and right field. He is prone to moving prospects quickly through Houston’s system — and promised to repeat the process with Smith, provided his offense continues to progress. “Whichever position he’s playing the best, we’ll put him in that position as he moves up,” Brown said. Smith has a .364 batting average across 384 at-bats since returning from the Cape Cod League. Cubs officials advised Smith to improve pulling the baseball in the air with more backspin, which Smith said has already “clicked with me pretty quickly.” “I don’t think about being a power hitter,” said Smith, who had 16 extra-base hits in 32 professional games last season. “I just want to make contact. The contact is one of my best tools, so I want to keep that. I’m going to stay the same and, naturally, you’ll lift that ball. I’ve been relying on that same approach — that low line drive — and I’ll get lucky sometimes and they’ll fly out.” Before last year’s draft, Smith had thought of his two “best options.” Chicago made his first come true by selecting him. Smith’s entire family is Cubs fans, a following led by his grandmother, Patty Thomas. Smith labeled her a “die-hard,” but informing her of the trade went “way better than I thought.” “The Astros win,” Thomas told her grandson, before reminding him why the team was Smith’s second-best option during the draft.