Ok guys, I thought I'd start a thread for us to discuss our predictions/hopes/expectations for the second half of the season over the next couple of days: Some key questions: Can we stay in contention in the NL Central or will the Cubbies/Cards/Brewers take off not to be caught? Will Roy O have another second half like last year? Will Miggy keep up his hot hitting or should we trade him away? What about Valverde? Any chance of us making another trade before the deadline if Dratyon thinks we have a shot at the postseason? Can Bourn keep this up? The improvement is phenomenal so far! Feel free to add any of your own points too, anything goes as long as it's about the rest of this Astros season.
I think if you trade Valverde and Tejada you still could win this division and at the same time get some prospects.
I've been thinking the same myself over the last couple of weeks. Is Tejada really that important to our offense? He hits for a high average but not a great deal of power any more. Also, he hits into shedloads of GIDPs and as Brooksball has demonstrated numerous times, he almost never walks, so his average and OBP are always very similar. As for Valverde, he improves the team, but probably only by 1 game or so over half a season. Hawkins could do a decent enough job as closer, and if we can get something decent for Valverde we should do it. Is there any trade out there involving these two that might possibly get us a legit 3rd starter for the rotation? I can't say I know enough about trades and trade value in baseball to know what value we would get out of them, but if we could get even a light hitting shortstop with good plate discipline and a decent 3rd starter, that would improve our team into contention imo.
no way. this team was blowing saves without valverde, and they were having to use bullpen pitchers they wouldn't otherwise use in certain situations. they're second worst in the league, i think, in blown saves...i think all but 2 or 3 of those happened when valverde was out. this team already struggles to score runs. taking away the team's leader in hits wouldn't be a good thing.
if you're trading these guys you're doing it for prospects...not for players who can contribute right away.
i think valverde is more valuable than tejada only because we dont have depth in the bullpen, the offense has plenty of bats not enough run producers, i really hope they trade at least one of them i would like to think the astros can stay in contention, but i think the brewers, cards and cubs are just better clubs, that being said the astros shouldnt be in contention now
??? I understand most of your logic re Valverde, but hell, he blew two saves as soon as he got back from rehab and blew at least two beforehand. In a larger sample, Latroy Hawkins has only blown three saves. I'd say, he's a competent closer at this point.
Looking at the Astros schedule the rest of the way, I don't think it's a matter of the top 3 playing better so much as it will be the Astros playing real competition. They have nearly a season's worth of games left against StL and Milwaukee. They also still have series against LAD, SF, and have to finish the season @ Philadelphia. The way he's looked of late, I'd count on him being his normal dominating self the rest of the way. His career stats say there should be little drop off. It would be unwise to expect him to be hitting .330 at the end, but it's possible. He's going to get pitches to hit having Berkman, Lee, & Pence behind him. If the right deal came along, I'd be all for trading him, regardless of where we are in the standings. I'd love to see if Tommy Manzella is ready. Possibly the team's most tradeable asset. If they could get some young bats back for it, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd be surprised if he added payroll at this point. Brocail is about to come back, so they're getting another arm for the pen. You've got options as far as the rotation goes if/when Hampton goes to the DL (Paulino, Norris, Bazardo). I don't see anything significant happening. Like Tejada, a drop off is probable. However, he has definitely improved and the Astros have the true lead off man they thought they had...and a damn good centerfielder. Going forward, solely based on the schedule, I think it's going to be extremely difficult for the Astros to stay in contention the rest of the way. They come out of the break playing the Dodgers, Stl., NYM, and Chicago. If they manage to get through that with the same win % or even better, then the last couple of months could be very interesting. I just have this feeling that they've been feasting on the Pirates, Nationals, and Padres of the world and that allowed them to get back into things. Didn't hurt that the Cards and Brewers were playing much tougher schedules and neither could pull away. The next couple of weeks are incredibly important. I'd say check back on 7/30 and if they're still there, keep watching because it could be a fun September.
it's not just blown saves....it's the fact that you're having to use Hawkins in the closer role...and probably sampson as a setup man...it waters down any notion of depth in the bullpen.
Don't forget that you get Brocail back and hopefully the same Wesley Wright that was here a few weeks ago and didn't give up a run when he was recalled.
good points if they fall apart coming out of the break, i'm all for trading those guys. but if they are still hovering around 3 games out in a few weeks, i can't see trading those guys.
They *barely* limped into the break at .500 *with* those guys, against sappy competition. Have you checked the second half schedule? My prediction: 81-81 would thrill my little soul.
i agree. And I don't think we can afford to lose Valverde if we want to compete. Tejada...maybe. And I wonder, if we're within 3-4 games in a few weeks, if Drayton will make his usual move in dealing for a mediocre vet that improves the team a little bit....and if so, what "prospect" (obviously none of our decent ones even) is he willing to move? Another pair of questions for the 2nd half--can Pence regain his early season form and have a very solid season in terms of building towards his future? Can Hampton keep it up and stay relatively healthy? Oh, and they're well on their way (for now) of beating the over/under from Vegas...hoping for more of the same!
Cardinals will win the division. I have to believe the Cubs are better than they've played, so they'd got by vote for second. I can't see the Astros being better than either of them... hell, I can't see the Astros being better than the Brewers either. As long as he stops having finger issues, I don't see why not! Nah, he won't keep it going. I really do hope we trade him to a contender and get a few decent prospects. Valverde will be fine, but Hawkins did a pretty good job as closer, so if the season does turn downwards like I expect, I would not be surprised (or disappointed) if he got traded. I have to believe the Drayton has realized the problems with the club (and the farm system) and if we're significantly far back, he won't dig himself into the hole any further. I hope that if there's a trade, it's to secure our future, not our present. Yeah, I think he can. His plate discipline is tons better, he's hitting the ball the opposite way, he's as fast as ever... I'm starting to like him a lot. Lidge for Bourn looks good this year.
Thanks, that is not gonna be enough time to know that we're clearly out of it. I say this because the only way Drayton trades anyone for prospects would be if we were waaay out it by then. If we are still around 6-7 games back by the 31st, I doubt we make a move. My 2 cents are that we'll prolly hover the rest of the season 2-5 games back. The key will be do we have a hot streak in us like we have had in recent past. We've played well for about 6-7 weeks w/o anything of a real streak, and while that's helped us get back in it, even if do continue playing this type of ball, chances are the Cards keep playing similar ball. It'll take a streak of some sort to truly pull ahead. My keys : Bourn, Pence, and Sampson. Seems like Berkman and Roy have found themselves. Lee is Lee. Tejada has shown regression of power, but his avg has always been good, even if he slows down, I could still see him finishing over .300 for the season. If Pence regains his form from early, Bourn keeps it up, Sampson gets over his funk, and you add to that Berkman and Roy's hot streaks, then we're in business.
I don't know. We could be out of it by the 31st. By July 24th, this would have happened. We play 4 games @ Dodgers 3 games vs. Cards 1 games vs. Mets St. Louis plays 3 games vs. D-backs 3 games @ Astros 1 games @ Nationals Given that we were playing well, especially pitching well and now our team has a lay-off, and then going against 2 good teams and 1 team that has not played their potential, I could easily see us going 2-6. Meanwhile the Cardinals now have Lohse backing, and against two bad teams plus a question-mark with us. Not to mention Pujols generally kills us, I could easily them going 5-3 or 6-1. For the week after that we both face tough teams (Mets/Cubs vs. Dodgers/Phillies), so it really just depends on the bounce of the ball during that stretch. I could easily see us being 9-10 games out by July 28th-30th, which I hope would be incentive to get some trades worked out.
let's be clear.. the Mets are NOT a good team. DL: Putz, Maine, Delgado, Reyes, Beltran on roster: Fernando Nieve, old man Livan (can have hot stretches, but is no longer good over a season), Tim Redding, Oliver Perez (not right yet this season) Francoeur imo is a downgrade from Ryan Church at the plate, so they have that to look forward to. Fernando Martinez isn't ready. Daniel Murphy has disappointed compared to expectations. Not to mention Wagner being out before this all started, but of course KRod replaced him so that's not as big. If those 5 are still on the DL, the Astros better win any game Johan doesn't pitch..
Has anybody seen Hunter Pence? In all seriousness, I would love to see him regain his early season form as kaleido alluded to.
