As Rafer goes.............

so go the Rockets.

I'll say it one more time. The Rockets will go as far as Rafer takes them this year.

I got to looking at some stats, and thought I'd give my opinions since Rafer is a lightning rod around here.

* In games Rafer scores 20 or more points, the Rockets record is 9-2.

* In games Rafer scores 15 or more points, the Rockets record is 22-7.

* In games Rafer scores 10 or more points, the Rockets record is 36-11.

* In games Rafer scores in single digits, the Rockets record is 12-9.

* In the 3 games Rafer missed this year, the Rockets are 0-3.

* When Rafer scores in double digits and shoots over 40% from the field, the Rockets record is 27-5.

* When Rafer scores in double digits and shoots less than 40% from the field, the Rockets record is 9-6.

* When Rafer shoots 40% or less from the field and 30% or less from 3, the Rockets record is 14-10.

* In the 20 losses Rafer has played in, he has averaged 10.5 points on 37.87% shooting and 28.85% 3 point shooting and 0.98 points per shot.

* In the 48 wins Rafer has played in, he has averaged 13.9 points on 41.2% shooting and 37.9% 3 point shooting and 1.09 points per shot.

* In games where Rafer has made over 1 point per shot, the Rockets are 28-5.

* In games where Rafer has made 1 or less points per shot, the Rockets are 20-15.




Now for some stats against the Western Conference Playoff teams including Dallas, Denver, and Golden State since they are all competing and we don't know for sure who is going to be out yet:

* In games against the Western Conference playoff teams including Dallas, Denver, and Golden State, Rafer has averaged 13.08 points per game, on 41% shooting from the field, and 34% shooting from 3, and 1.079 points per shot and led the Rockets to a 13-12 record.


CONCLUSION:

1. If Rafer can shoot 40% from the field and 40% from 3, the Rockets have an excellent chance of advancing in the playoffs.

2. If Rafer could get to the FT line just a few more times to boost his points per shot over 1, then the Rockets have a good chance of advancing in the playoffs.

3. If Rafer shoots poorly (in the mid to low 30s) and does not score in double digits, the Rockets have "No Chance", in the words of the immortal Clyde Drexler.

4. Rafer's performance against the Western Conference playoff opponents has been good but not great. His 3 point percentage is slightly less than desirable probably because of the better scrambling perimeter defenses not allowing him to get his feet set as good. It is still very questionable whether he can maintain his level of play since New Years against the playoff calibur teams.

5. Rafer and McGrady's performance combined will either doom this team or bring this team to it's destiny. I didn't look at combined stats, but I would bet that in games where both Rafer and McGrady have poor shooting nights, we are virtually winless. We know what we're going to get out of Battier, Scola, Landry. Those guys are as consistent as h... Rafer and McGrady (along with Luther) are the inconsistencies in the rotation with Rafer being the true wild card because of the minutes he plays, his crucial role in setting up the offense and not turning the ball over, and the fact that opponents sag off him to help on McGrady and everybody else and he very plainly is going to have to take and make a bunch of shots because of the sag off.

Very simply put, Rafer was the biggest reason we won 22 games in a row. His performance was simply great during that stretch and it showed what this team can do with a 3rd scorer that can take the pressure off McGrady. Rafer will continue to be the biggest reason we either continue winning or get stomped out of the playoffs. As Rafer goes, so goes the Rockets.

 

I understand that. But Rafer and McGrady are going to be taking the most shots and if they aren't knocking them down then there's not going to be a need to double off one of our bigs. When they are effective, then the help has to come from the bigs and all of a sudden, "Presto", Landry goes 10 for 12 because of all the wide open dunks he's getting off the defense helping to stop McGrady and Rafer.

McGrady is the obvious defensive target. Every opponent wants to take the ball out of his hands, force him to dish it. The obvious target to funnel the ball to is Rafer when he is on the court because he is the least efficient offensive player, save for Deke when he is out there. But Deke ain't running around looking for the bball either. Opponents don't want Shane getting off the wide open corner 3 ball, they don't want Scola getting free for the dipsy doodle moves in the paint. The opponent wants the ball going to Rafer. Hence, he is going to get the most or 2nd most shots over time and in the vast majority of the games with McGrady getting his off bad defense or by simply outclassing his defender. So, when the Rox win and their shooting percentages are high, you can bet the biggest contributors to those percentages being high is Rafer and McGrady. If they are on, then they have to be defended hard and it opens up the interior. If they are off, then the opponent can defend the paint and let those guys just jack up shots and run a very inefficient offense. This team isn't magically gonna turn into Scola's team down the stretch. This is McGrady's and Rafer's team and Rafer's performance is going to be the key component to our success/failure.

 

Should be obvious with Tracy.

I'm trying to make the point that Rafer is the single biggest KEY to our success/failure. Scola isn't going to become the 2nd scorer on the team overnight. Neither is Landry. Because of Rafer's record and history in this league, it is going to remain his burden to perform more efficiently than his career averages, more than any other player.