Article on drafting HSers, plus an inside look at the worst GM ever

A good <a href="http://search.newschoice.com/Display.asp?story=d:\index\newsarchives\angtr\spt\20010522\879938_jt1hs22.txt&searchtext=Twardzik&puid=557&deal=no">article in yesterday's Oakland Tribune</a> explored the complexity of drafting high schoolers. The Golden State Warriors' history in the subject is described by longtime scout Ed Gregory (responsible for finding Latrell Sprewell among others, but also for trading Tom Gugliotta for Donyell Marshall when he was interim GM in '94):

Compared to any high schooler in this year's draft pool, Garnett and Bryant were easy to peg. Gregory recalls dashing back from a Garnett workout to give then-Warriors general manager Dave Twardzik a glowing report.

"Dave, I've been scouting and coaching for 45 years, and I have never seen a guy this good at that age," Gregory told him. "I'm telling you, this kid can't miss. Dave said to me, 'We're not taking him.'"

Gregory said he never even got the chance to check out Bryant first-hand as a high schooler. "I heard about this kid, Kobe Bryant, and told Dave I'm going to see him," Gregory said. "He said, 'I've already seen him. We're not taking him. Don't go.'"

Twardzik, of course, was the same guy who traded Tim Hardaway/Chris Gatling for Bimbo Coles/Kevin Willis, then let Willis walk as a free agent so he could sign what was left of Mark Price to a 3-year deal (he was out of the league after 2 years).



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In a way, the #5 pick is a blessing in this sense -- there will probably be a top tier of five or so players, and we'll take whoever's left after the first four picks.

The hints from management are that they were hoping to get Kwame Brown, but don't think he'll be around at #5.

If they can get a good current PG for the pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a deal. But I doubt one will be available.

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Hey, that one has to get in line behind the deal where they got Joe Barry Carroll ... giving up a couple of guys named McHale and Parish.

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Dammit, the refresh on this computer didn't work, and I posted twice.


[This message has been edited by Swopa (edited May 23, 2001).]

 

For both posts.

O, that someone would delete these last two posts and erase my shame!

[This message has been edited by Swopa (edited May 23, 2001).]

 

Sounds about right. Carroll was before my time, but I did a little quick research, and the stats for his first six seasons with GS even look like those for Vin Baker's first five years in the league.

Judging from the numbers in those years, it looks like he was:

* a solid scorer (20+ ppg on close to or better than 50% shooting)
* not quite the rebounder you might hope for given his size (just over 8 rpg)
* something of a black hole on offense (assist-TO ratio hovering dangerously close to 1:2)

Just at a guess, he wasn't much of a defender, either.

I'm sure it didn't help matters that he was a #1 pick, with all the associated expectations, or that he sat out a season in a contract dispute (playing in Italy that year).

It does seem like the team did play somewhat better with him, but not good enough to make the playoffs, just missing them in 4 of his first 5 years (Antoine Walker parallel, anyone?).

Ironically, the famous incident where George Karl destroyed JBC's locker came in a year when Carroll made the All-Star team and GS made the 2nd round of the playoffs (in fact, it happened during that series, which they lost to the Magic Johnson-led Lakers 4-1 ... apparently because JBC seemed too complacent after a loss).


[This message has been edited by Swopa (edited May 23, 2001).]

 

When I typed that, I knew I was setting someone up with a straight line.



By the way, you wanna know what's really bad about the Parish/McHale trade? The year before, the Celtics drafted Larry Bird at #6, even though he wouldn't play in the league until the following year.

Guess who had the #5 pick and could've taken Bird instead.
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[This message has been edited by Swopa (edited May 24, 2001).]

 

I remember reading at the time of the '97 draft that teams were worried about McGrady taking off as a free agent -- and since that fear was clearly justified, I'm not too brokenhearted about that. Foyle was kind of a dumb choice in his own right, though, since he's too short to ever succeed as a starter ... and you'd like to get more than a career backup C with the #8 pick.

Fortunately, the current management (St. Jean/Garry Fitzsimmons) didn't have anything to do with that, either, since they weren't hired until after the '97 draft. The front office decisions since then have been much better.

To answer your question, Live, I think GS is at a crossroads this coming year. If they'd been even reasonably healthy last season, I think they'd have won 30-35 games and be looking at 40-45 this year (based on more chemistry and young players getting better).

Now, however, the most optimistic scenario I can drum up is that they manage a "do-over" of what should have happened in '00-'01. But last year was worse than a lost season, because of the negative feelings generated by all the losses -- scapegoating, players wishing that maybe they could be somewhere else, etc.

I don't know yet who will wind up being casualties of that negativity (though Bob Sura, Mookie, and Dampier are leading candidates). The danger is that if they lose Mookie and/or Dampier without getting much in return, you've got a major hole in a position (C or PG) that teams often go years trying to fill.

If things go wrong again this coming year, then you're probably looking at a full blow-up. If Saint manages to get everyone's attitude back on the same page, though, I wouldn't mind seeing a starting lineup of Dampier/Fortson/Jamison/Hughes/Cummings with Foyle/M. Jackson(?)/Mills/Porter and whoever they acquire this summer coming off the bench. Might be more competitive than you think.

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