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[Article] FiveThirtyEight Playoff Preview

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Visagial, Apr 17, 2015.

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  1. Visagial

    Visagial Member

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    #1 Visagial, Apr 17, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
  2. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    Thanks. 1% seems ridiculously low.

    Vegas has them 14/1
     
    #2 Mr. Clutch, Apr 17, 2015
  3. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

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    how accurate have these guys been in the past with their NBA predictions?
     
    #3 DreamShook, Apr 17, 2015
  4. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Member

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    The percentage chance to win it all... do they explain what that's based on? It seems like it's not math because the Bulls have twice the likelihood to win it all over us. The 3 seed in the weaker east has double the chances of the 2 seed in the stronger west? Yeah, no.
     
    #4 don grahamleone, Apr 17, 2015
  5. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    1% is comically low. I'd put it somewhere around 10%-15%. 1% should be reserved for the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics of the world. If you get into the playoffs as a 2 seed and Division Champions in one of the hardest conferences in modern sports, you deserve a little more respect than what the national media is giving us.
     
    #5 Fyreball, Apr 17, 2015
  6. RockFanFirst

    RockFanFirst Member

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    How dare someone bring statistics to this argument! Isn't it easier to just say "other than Harden, they're a bad team".
     
    #6 RockFanFirst, Apr 17, 2015
  7. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    The only explanation is that it is MUCH easier to come out of the east than the west.
     
    #7 Hakeemtheking, Apr 17, 2015
  8. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

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    538 loves point differential based stats. Good on them to try and analyze how the playoff will shake up, but truth be told the playoffs are all about match ups.
     
    #8 Pizza_Da_Hut, Apr 17, 2015
  9. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    1% is a little low but it's close enough. I'd say 3 to 5% chance but I'm a homer. We need the Spurs and Warriors to lose for us to have a realistic chance at getting to the finals imo.
     
    #9 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  10. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Member

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    I'll take 1%.

    Let harden and co take care of the other 99%.
     
    #10 Mr. Dominant, Apr 17, 2015
  11. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Member

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    Honestly, I see the rockets beating the Spurs in a 7 game series.. especially with a non restricted minute Dwight.

    I don't see us winning vs Clippers for some reasons.
     
    #11 Mr. Dominant, Apr 17, 2015
  12. benchmoochie

    benchmoochie Member

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    if rockets are 1% then the rest of the field must be very skewed.
     
    #12 benchmoochie, Apr 17, 2015
  13. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

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    Just saw this. Interesting. Matches my picks exactly. Basically there's about a 90% chance that one of GSW, SAS, ATL, CLE wins the championship.
     
    #13 basketballholic, Apr 17, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
  14. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    48% Warriors
    21% Cavs
    12% Spurs
    8% Clippers
    5% Hawks

    Can't say I disagree too much with that
     
    #14 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  15. BigShasta

    BigShasta Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #15 BigShasta, Apr 17, 2015
  16. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    That was assuming no roster moves I think
     
    #16 Mr. Clutch, Apr 17, 2015
  17. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Yeah I totally disagreed with their preseason estimates. They didn't make sense.
     
    #17 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  18. Kwame

    Kwame Member

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    You don't know what you're talking about. No place in Las Vegas has the Rockets at 14/1.
     
    #18 Kwame, Apr 17, 2015
  19. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

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    I believe it's based on their 10000 simulations and that alone.
     
    #19 roflmcwaffles, Apr 17, 2015
  20. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Member

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    #20 don grahamleone, Apr 17, 2015
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