[Article by me]Houston Rockets...Cotenders or Pretenders?

After a very active offseason which saw 5 new players placed on the 15 man roster, and then an extremely disappointing 15-17 start to the season, the Houston Rockets have finally appeared to come full circle. Winners of 9 in a row and 18 of their last 21, the Rockets are currently the hottest team in the league. With a record of 33-20, the Rockets are currently sitting in 7th place in the Western Conference, but are just 4 games out of 1st place and only 2.5 games out of homecourt advantage for the playoffs. All of this raises the question: Are the McGrady/Yao-led Rockets finally title contenders, or are they once again a 1st round KO?

To further examine the Rockets, we must look at their offseason, regular season up until this point, and what other contenders have done to put their teams in better position to win a championship.
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As I alluded to earlier, the offseason was a turbulent one. After firing Jeff Van Gundy and replacing him with the more offense-oriented Rick Adelman, the Rockets GM Darryl Morey made a trade that saw Juwan Howard shipped to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mike James and Justin Reed (later released by the Rockets). Then the 2008 NBA Draft came, and the Rockets sent cash to Seattle for a 2nd round draft pick, which turned into PF Carl Landry out of Purdue. Their 1st round draft pick became Aaron Brooks out of Oregon, who tore up the NBA Summer League and captured #2 in the SL MVP race. In July, the Rockets made their biggest moves. They resigned the problematic Bonzi Wells to a 1 year deal, signed Steve Francis to a 1 year deal after getting bought out by the Trail Blazers, and then in what would be the most successful move of the offseason the Rockets traded the disappointing Vassilis Spanoulis along with their 2009 2nd round draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Spanish League MVP Luis Scola and Jackie Butler (who would later be released). With a retooled roster, the Rockets entered training camp with sky-high expectations of earning their first championship since the Hakeem Olajuwon led squad of the mid-‘90’s.

The season started off great for the Rockets. The Rockets quickly jumped out to a 6-1 start, with notable wins over the Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs. Tracy McGrady led the league in scoring through those first 7 games, and it appeared Adelman had succeeded in his offseason promise to make things easier for his 2 stars.

The Rockets then lost a tough road game to the Memphis Grizzlies, and then during the next game against the Lakers they endured an even bigger loss…Tracy McGrady, to an elbow strain. He would come back 2 games later, but the Rockets would altogether lose 6 straight games. For the next month, despite terrific play from both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, the Rockets would play sub-.500 ball. With the acquisitions of Francis and James appearing to be failures, and constant reshuffling and retooling of the new offense and the new lineups, the Rockets were horribly inconsistent. One night they would beat Phoenix, then drop 2 in a row to Sacramento and Golden State. As if the losing wasn’t enough, then came a game against the Dallas Mavericks, and McGrady once again went down, this time with a bruised knee. He would play sporadically over the next few games, but then re-aggravate it in a game against the Detroit Pistons, and he would be sidelined for the next 11 games. In hindsight, the McGrady injury was possibly the best thing to happen to this team, as it allowed them to try more players in the rotation like Aaron Brooks, and allowed guys to learn they don’t need to solely rely on McGrady to create for everyone. As a result, the players gained confidence in themselves, and took advantage of a soft schedule as they tallied a 7-4 record without McGrady.

With the team rolling and offense apparently figured out, McGrady made his return to the team on January 19th against the Spurs. Many fans and “experts” worried that he would ruin the team chemistry and all the ball movement that worked so well for the Rockets in his absence. Luckily for the Rockets, this was not the case as he has blended in very well with his passing ability, racking up 6.2APG since his return. In that span the Rockets have won 12 of 13 games, with their only loss coming against the red hot Jazz in a game which Yao Ming sat out with the flu. In those 13 games, the Rockets have averaged 95PPG while giving up only 88PPG. The return of Tracy McGrady wasn’t the only change the Rockets experienced in this recent stretch. The starting PF spot experienced some major change with the one dimensional Chuck Hayes being replaced in the starting lineup by the versatile and offensively potent Luis Scola, and the primary backup at the position has been taken over by Carl Landry, whose athleticism and hustle have really given the Rockets a huge boost off the bench. Another change has been the addition of Aaron Brooks as a regular rotation player, and he has performed quite well in the time he has been given.

Unfortunately for the Rockets, the West has gotten even more top heavy during the Rockets recent surge. It started a few months back, with Kyle Korver being traded from the Sixers to the Jazz for a bag of chips (Gordon Giricek and future 1st round draft pick). Since the acquisition of Korver, the Jazz have been on a roll, winning 19 of their last 22 game en route to taking control of the Northwest Division. That trade was just the start of one of the craziest seasons ever in terms of in-season trades and signings…in the last few weeks, the Spurs have signed Damon Stoudemire, the Lakers traded Kwame Brown and Javaris Crittenton for Pau Gasol, the Warriors have signed Chris Webber, the Suns traded Shawn Marion and Macus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, and most recently the Mavericks were involved in an 8 player deal which has seen Jason Kidd return to the team which he started his Hall of Fame career with. On top of the trades that have already gone down, there have been even more trade rumors heading into the trade deadline, which could see teams like the Nuggets getting even better as we enter the stretch run.

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With all of that said, where do the Rockets currently stand right now…are they contenders or pretenders? In my opinion, with the recent moves made by other Western Conference powers like the Lakers and Mavericks, the Rockets simply aren’t contenders just yet. While the Rockets are improved from last year due to a talent upgrade at their 2 weakest positions (PG and PF), and a coaching change which has allowed a more balanced offense, the Rockets are still lacking a consistent 3rd option to take pressure off of McGrady and Yao on a consistent basis. The memory of McGrady and Yao doing EVERYTHING for the Rockets and the role players doing absolutely nothing in the Jazz series still lingers. While the Rockets have gotten more balanced and added guys who can create their own shots like Scola and a healthy Bonzi, they still lack a guy who can consistently feed off of Yao and McGrady as well as score or facilitate when others cannot (whether it be because the stars are on the bench, injured, or playing poorly). Until the Rockets get that consistent 3rd option, they will still be very vulnerable in the post season when teams either try and shutdown the 2 stars or shutdown the role players. Despite many critics bashing the Rockets for their leadership from McGrady/Yao, I do not feel this is the main problem for the team. Both guys are extremely talented and productive, and generally what one lacks the other is able to provide (Yao provides the fire and heat that T-Mac does not, T-Mac provides the ability to take over a game that Yao does not). I feel both guys are good enough to get the Rockets where they need to be.

Now, to get that 3rd option, a trade is necessary. Guys like Mike Miller, Andre Miller and Ron Artest have all been rumored as possible options for the Rockets to trade for. The first thing to look at is what the team needs. Since he has been given more freedom, Alston has really played well, and as seen with the James/Francis experiments, he is the Rockets’ only PG who can properly run this team without McGrady having to completely shoulder the load. With Brooks backing him up and doing a nice job, I feel that PG is not the team’s biggest concern, despite how talented other Western teams are at the position (Nash/Kidd/Paul/Williams/Davis/etc…). The other 2 positions to look at are SF/PF. With the addition of Scola and Landry, both of whom have played really well and continue to grow, I feel they are great compliments to the 2 stars and are good fits at PF. No change needed. That leaves the SF position, which Battier currently occupies. Battier is a fine player, but he is an offensive liability unless he is open in the corner for the 3. On a team that is really trying to break through that final barrier of becoming a really good offensive team, we need a guy with a better offensive arsenal. That leaves Artest/Mike Miller as the 2 best available trade options. The second thing to look at is how they will affect team chemistry and how their contracts line up. This is where it is clear to see that going after Mike Miller is a no-brainer. As good as Artest is, he is a nutcase who will essentially be a rental as he will opt out at the end of the season (unless he agrees to an extension upon trade) and the Rockets will be unable to sign him. Not to mention his style of play and selfishness could really affect the rhythm and consistency the team has worked so hard to achieve over the last 53 games. So, I am a no-go on an Artest trade unless we could get him for just expiring contract and maybe a filler whom we do not need. In any case, Mike Miller should be our #1 option. His contract is favorable, and his style of play and terrific 3pt shooting will be a perfect compliment to Tracy and Yao. Not to mention he hasn’t had any attitude problems in the past and has a great relationship with T-Mac. I think the Rockets should push hard to get him…it is really the only hope for a title in my opinion.



CnC appreciated!

 

Thanks for the tip!

 

I guess I did not elaborate enough on the topic, but as seen after my overview of the season thus far I clearly stated that I believe they are not contender and why, and then proceeded to state how that could change.