Apr 28 - NEW POLL: Clinton does better vs. McCain than Obama

Didn't John Edwards have the most projected success vs McCain? I heard him say it in a debate. (not sure if it was true)

Makes sense considering white guy do pretty well in these things.

If this is true the republicans must either be blinded by their own hate for Hillary and think she is impossible to win the race or they think she has already lost the primary and thus just attack Obama the most to get head start.

 

CNN reported it, although you have to hunt for the poll on their website. CNN typically uses 4 polls... the Newsweek, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post poll, and Reuters/Zogby. Sometimes they give an average of the four. From what I could see, both Clinton and Obama defeat McCain by 3 to 5 percentage points on CNN, according to those polls. The Associated Press-Ipsos poll you quoted is a "real poll," but shows a different result than the others I saw on CNN. I'm not sure what that means, to tell you the truth. Someone else will have to speak to how accurate the different polls are, compared to each other.

Here's the story as reported on CNN...

(CNN) – A new poll out Monday appears to bolster Hillary Clinton's argument that she is in a better position than rival Barack Obama to beat John McCain in a general election match up.

According to a newly-released poll from The Associated Press and Ipsos, Clinton would beat McCain by a wide 9-point margin, 50 percent to 41 percent. But when Obama faces McCain, the two are statistically tied — Obama holds a two point edge over McCain, within the poll's margin of error.

The Clinton campaign has long argued the New York senator has a better shot at beating McCain because of her demonstrated appeal with working class white voters — a demographic that is key to winning several swing states.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ws-clinton-has-better-shot-of-beating-mccain/



Impeach Bush.

 

naa. all hillary supports will vote for obama.

however not all obama supporters will vote for hillary.

that being said obama will then have to hold his own from now till november from the smear campaigns that mccain will sendforth.

i believe obama is moderate enough and exciting enough enabling him to push the country's executive branch back to the democratic party easily. however if hillary gets the nomination i think the fight will be tight.

lets not bring back the republicans voting for hillary in the caucuses now should we..

 

Obama is running a horrible campaign. All that momentum and goodwill that he garnered from Iowa and the subsequent 11 states in a row run has been squandered. Reminds of the Rockets trying to close out a game.

- He should have completely distanced himself from that assbag, rev Wright
- He should have embraced the blue collar workers in rural America
- He should have put Hillary away months ago

 

Of course...Hillary gets more moderate votes than Obama would. Obama is more liberal than Hillary, thus loses more moderate votes to McCain.

 

You are wrong on every single point here.

1. Polls show that fewer Hillary supporters will vote for Obama than vice versa
2. The 'smear campaigns' are coming from Hillary, not McCain, and furthermore, McCain has tried to STOP these ads from airing.
3. Obama is the opposite of moderate. He was selected as the most liberal Senator and holds views that are far left of Hillary on many issues, which is saying something.

 

i am not wrong on every single point sir.

yeah the polls are calling available women who are home to answer the phone. there is the idea that southern women who typically vote democrat but fear obama is a muslim will vote for mccain over obama. i believe they are taking up most of the poll numbers making me believe those numbers are not entirely accurate.

talk to any clinton supporter and ask what they would do: mccain v. obama?

maybe im wrong it just doesnt make sense to me.

but dude trader -- most liberal senator?!!?!? there my friend you are wrong.

 

That's the most silly thing I've ever heard. Do you have any idea how detailed these polling operations are? As someone who works in the media, I can assure you -- no one above the high school level conducts a survey in the manner you described. Surveys are weighted on a percentage breakdown basis of the typical vote to reflect all demographics -- whites, blacks, men, women, you name it.

Furthermore, take a look at the map in states where both Hillary and Obama have campaigned -- Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. Obama consistently wins in the big metros and college towns -- the same locations that John Kerry won big in. Clinton consistently wins rural and suburban locations -- locations dominated by the Republican party the last two elections. You tell me -- out of those two bases, which is more likely to flip to the GOP if their chosen candidate doesn't win? It's not rocket science.

Clinton is considered a more moderate Senator than Obama. I know plenty of Clinton supporters personally who would turn immediately to McCain before they'd go Obama. Furthermore, every single poll taken in the last two months has shown that more Clinton supporters would refuse to vote for Obama than the reverse -- and no, none of them are taken in the bizarre, high school esque breakdown that you cited. They're all weighted to reflect the voting demographics. In fact, most are done as part of the exit polls, where phones aren't even used, and Obama has routinely outperformed his actual results. If the numbers are biased as you claim, which I doubt, they're more likely to be biased in favor of Obama than they would be in favor of Clinton.

You might not understand or agree with it, and that's fine, but I can promise you're wrong about it.

 

Hillary has successfully divided the democratic party in two. Literally split it in half. I don't think it will recover for a long time.

No matter what happens, blacks will not vote for Hillary, and whites not for Obama.

TJ and Big Tex must be so happy.

 

Either candidate will win by a substantial margin in November.

 

1) I am always happy, because I am wealthy, regular, and have a very well manicured lawn.
2) Obama is just as much at fault for the division, he is no saint here, attacking Hillary on the stump daily and trying to discredit her every chance he gets.

 

don't you love than freshly cut grass smell?

 

I don't think America will vote a black guy with a middle eastern sounding name. It is kind of sad but I wish John Edwards got the nomination, at least it beats four years of McCain in office. Another 4 years of this war will cost this country trillions.

 

The local rock group down the street
Is trying hard to learn their song
Seranade the weekend squire, who just came out to mow his lawn

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday
Charcoal burning everywhere
Rows of houses that are all the same
And no one seems to care

See Mrs. Gray she's proud today because her roses are in bloom
Mr. Green he's so serene, He's got a t.v. in every room

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday
Here in status symbol land
Mothers complain about how hard life is
And the kids just don't understand

Creature comfort goals
They only numb my soul and make it hard for me to see
My thoughts all seem to stray, to places far away
I need a change of scenery

 

The Monkees! All that's missing in that tune are a reference to Trader_J's regular bowel movements. I must say, I'm glad they left that lyric out.



Impeach Bush.

 

New poll from SurveyUSA has Hillary opening up a 9 point lead in Indiana. Wow.

 

I read this article about the end of the New Deal Coalition yesterday, and while I don't agree with all of it, or even that much of it, it did give me pause and made me think. I do think there are shreds of truth and it deserves a read.

http://spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=13114

 

Interesting, which medium?

How do you feel about the Dick Morris assertion: http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/

IS HILLARY PREPARING TO RUN IN 2012?

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FOXNews.com on April 25, 2008.

Does Hillary Clinton really believe she can overtake Barack Obama among elected delegates? No way. The math is dead against her and she’s a realist. Even after Pennsylvania, Obama still leads by more than 140 in elected delegates. They’ll likely break even in Indiana and he’ll win North Carolina where one third of the vote is African-American. After that? If she wins Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico by 15 points and they break about even in Guam, North Dakota, Montana, and Oregon, she’ll still trail him by at least 130 votes among elected delegates.

Does she believe she can persuade super delegates to vote for her? Again, probably not. Obama has steadily eroded her edge among super delegates and now they are almost tied among committed super delegates. And the prevailing sentiment among those that remain is not to overturn the will of the voters.

So why is Hillary still running so hard? Why is she especially focused on pushing up Obama’s negatives?

Until the last vote is counted on June 3rd, we can chalk up her persistence to determination, courage and sheer obstinacy. But if she persists in her candidacy after the last primary, we must begin to consider whether she has an ulterior motive.

Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can’t win the general election in November, assuring McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run. But if McCain wins, she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year.

Every day that she stays in the race and punches Barack Obama, she must realize that she is decreasing his chances of getting elected in November. Each time that she waves the bloody shirt and says that only she is strong enough to fight the war on terror, she obviously raises doubts about Obama’s strength and leadership. Every time she criticizes him for not switching pastors or for saying downscale white voters are bitter, she raises issues that are very destructive to Obama should he win the nomination.

When does fighting for the nomination in 2008 end and seeking to sabotoge Obama’s chances in November to keep her options alive for 2012 begin? Doubts about Hillary’s motivation are going to keep on growing with each inconclusive primary. After she loses North Carolina and fails to carry Indiana by any significant margin (North Carolina has twice as many delegates as Indiana), people will begin to wonder out loud about why she is staying in the race. And if she remains obdurate after the last votes are cast on June 3rd, it will become an increasingly accepted presumption that she is running a campaign of sabotage against Obama.

There is a way to run without waging a scorched earth campaign. Mike Huckabee continued to fight for the Republican nomination until McCain reached the magic number to clench the battle and did not attack McCain. He waged a positive campaign and exercised his right to stay in the contest as long as it was undecided without hurting the party’s chances in November. Obviously, Huckabee could have attacked McCain and drawn more votes for his candidacy, but, in the interests of party victory, he chose not to do so.

Why isn’t Hillary making the same choice?

In 2004, it is pretty obvious that Hillary did nothing to help John Kerry beyond giving a speech at the convention and waging a token campaign on his behalf. Bill did even less. Their goal was obvious: they wanted Kerry to lose to Bush so that Hillary could run in 2008. Is she playing the same game now? Only time will tell.

 

this is what pisses me off about his campaign lately. dude was raised by middle class white grand parents in rural america. who was hillary raised by? yet he has let her define the issues and him.