I think it'd be a great game, myself. Yeah, I'm leaning for a Michigan victory, but as long as the Hawks go to the Rose Bowl, I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State play for the national championship. OSU, on one hand, hasn't played great offense; but the Buckeyes are unbeaten and only one other team can make such a claim.
Even Earl Campell, and Clarett is no Earl, needed blocking. I did notice Davis got around 150 yards last week (some hope for moving it on the ground against Michigan), however Larry Johnson (at least the equal to Clarett at this stage in their careers) was held below 80 and the primary Iowa tailback rushed for little over 1 yard per carry against them. If BOTH Clarett is playing well and OSU's run blocking is going well they will be in a much better position to win the game. Because then Michigan may have to bring the safeties up and play action could be effective. If either are not happening, and Michigan can stop the run with 7 man front--OSU offense is going to do nothing and they will have to win on special teams and defense. Not impossible--they won the Penn State game that way--but leaves the outstanding OSU defense with flat zero margin for error, a tall order as well as Michigan is now playing, One more factor for OSU--kicking game. Really that scrawny kicker has been the OSU MVP this year. If it comes down to field goals and special teams, huge edge OSU. I don't think it will. Again, I like Michigan going into this game--I think their offense is so much more balanced and their defense is very good even if not as good as OSUs.
Scar- If you're going to break it down then how do you figure Micigan can move the ball? We have shut down ever team we have played this year. We stopped Texas Tech, we held Gesser and WSU in check, we shut down PSU, we also shut down some other good offenses (Purue for example). Edge has to goto OSU's defense over Michigans offense. OSUs offense is below average without Clarett. With Clarett I give the slight edge to OSU so let's assume he is not at 100% for the entire game. I would give a very slight Edge to Michigan. Special teams has won games for OSU all year long. Nugent is having an awesome year (2 misses both last week), Groom should have been in consideration for Punter of the year (leading the Big 10), Gamble is dangerous as a return man and much like Va Tech we play our best players on special teams. Look for Michael Doss on the punt return team and on coverage. Our three Freshman LBs are maniacs on kickoff team. Big edge (IMO) to OSU. Coaches - Too early to tell but I believe in Tressell. Calm cool and collected. Michigan has been here before but Tress has this team focused on the goal at hand. Edge - Even. All in all it will be a defensive war. OSU has the edge on special teams and the home field advantage. Also I give OSU an edge on the intangibles. THey have been in so many close games that they know how to win. Can OSU be beat this Saturday, certainly. But I like OSU's chances.
I actually think Nugent is their MVP. I totally agree with you that if OSUs defense is so dominant that the game is reduced to a special team affair it is a huge edge to the Buckeyes (in every way) and look for them to sqeak by again. However Illinios showed last week you can move it on the Buckeyes through the air. Natti did the same thing. Interesting match-ups include Edwards versus the corners--Fox for sure cannot handle him. You can also take advantage of Gamble's aggresiveness--though I wouldn't try burning him as my bread and butter except maybe late (Gamble, as good as he is, may get flat worn out playing close to every down on O, D and special teams). Bellomi and Butler, the 2 other main Michigan Wrs, have good size and are decent as well. Fox vs. any of the three 1-1 is a big edge for Michigan. I am pretty well convinced OSU's offense won't do much against Michigan. Mich-O versus OSU-D is where the game will be decided Thus key match-ups: whomever Fox covers and whomever covers Juppro. Will it be Wilhelm vs. Juppro? Will Doss get to roam freely and use his insticts for the big play, or will he have specific responsibilities to help the corners or with Juppro if none of the LBs can handle him 1 on 1? OSU needs to win these battles (Wrs-vs corners; Juppro) to win the game.
D-Scar- I totally agree that Fox could be an issue. The way OSU has overcome that in many games is with our pass rush. We have 7 D-linemen who rotat in and out who (usually) do a great job on getting pressure. Will Smith is a great pass rusher (tends to over run the QB occassionally), Tim Anderson is a good DT (not many sacks but moves the pocket) and throw in a guy who will be a 1st round pick (Simon Frasier) we may not need Fox to do much. As for our LB's Wilhelm is the best. He is very good vs. the run and tends to find the ball against the pass. One of those guys who doesn't look like he is very fast but he is always there. Our other 2 starting backers are not that strong. Cie Grant played CB last year so he is good in coverage, but a smallish LB. Robert Reynolds I am honestly surprised one of the Freshmen (Hawk, Carpenter) have not overtaken him. Good news for our LBs is we are deep. Our 4 freshmen all are as good as Grant and Reynolds. You are right to beat the Bucks and move the ball you have to pass the ball. Only one team has run the ball against us (Wisconsin) and to be honest with you I think Wilhelm took that 1st half off. However we have been effective against the best QBs in the country (Gesser and Klingsberry) so Navarre doesn't scare me unless he gets better protection than anyone else has this year. As for Illinois moving the ball the only real time they seemed effective is the end of the game, when for some reason OSU played a prevent (rushed the passer with 3 linemen and dropped 8). I hate prevents and it burned us for a FG.
Two things worry me about game against OSU are Gamble and big play. Michigan has solid run defense, so whoever the RB is, doesn't worry me much. Malin Jackson can give their best WR fits. But Blue also tends to give up big plays. And Gamble's pick on J Navarre is the last thing I want to see. Since 86, OSU has never won a game like this with NT on the line against Wolvines, so my bet will go with blue.
Certainly Navarre isn't as good as those guys. However he has better skill players around him and most importantly a much better O-line. Unlike with Tech or WSU, Michigan will try to throw in running situations (play action). Of course to do this well you need to be reasonable effective running (at least 3YPC, 4-5 is better), and the Michigan backs (and line) are good. If the running game presents at least a little threat, and the safeties bite and Navarre gets time via play action, look out. Will Smith has looked better to me than Redding--I wish UT and OSU could have switched before the season. Both Cinci and Illinios moved the ball well in the air enough to win. In Cinci's case the WRs dropped 2 winning balls and in Ill case the defense had the 1 big play that killed them. If Michigan's O can put up like 17 points (without giving up TDs themselves like PSU did) it will be very hard for OSU to win. Great discussion 4chuckie--I almost could rout for OSU since it doesn't impact UT anymore, I don't care for Michigan. But sorry, I'd rather see WSU, Iowa or Georgia somehow get in the NC game. However is OSU wins I might rout for ya'll against Miami or OU, I for sure would rout for ya'll against ND.
I've enjoyed it too. One problem is I bleed scarlet and grey, much like most of the people in Columbus so it's good to get someone else's unbiased opinion. But anyways we'll see what happens on Saturday. I hope I can plan a trip to Tempe!
chuckie Get your reservations for Tempe. The Buckeyes are gonna be there. Even though I am not crazy about OSU's chances vs. Miami, I think we have more than enough in the tank for Michigan. I think Michael Jenkins will be the difference.
