Ouch. This has to sting. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...5/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_road_to270&cid=694&ncid=716 AP: Bush Leads Kerry in Electoral Votes By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer BOSTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) narrowly trails President Bush (news - web sites) in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican incumbent. With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country. "It's a tough, tough map. I think it's going to be a close race," said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore (news - web sites)'s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry. "But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said. Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from: _TOSSUPS — Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry's column. _LEAN KERRY — Maine, Minnesota and Washington (a combined 25 electoral votes) favor Kerry over Bush by a few percentage points. Gore carried them in 2000. _LEAN BUSH — North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri (a combined 73 electoral votes) give Bush modest leads. He won all seven in 2000. All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between "lean" to "tossup" throughout the campaign. ____ Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes — one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes. Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260. Even if Kerry consolidates Gore's states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush's column to close the electoral vote gap. Kerry's best prospects may be in the five tossup states won by Bush in 2000: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and West Virginia. Winning either Ohio's 20 electoral votes or Florida's 27 would do the trick. Bush easily won Ohio in 2000, but its lagging economy puts the state in play. Kerry must still reduce Bush's advantages among conservative, rural voters. Florida should favor Bush a bit more than in 2000, partly because of its relatively strong economy, but the war in Iraq (news - web sites) has helped keep the race close. Nevada and West Virginia have a combined 10 electoral votes, enough to close the gap. New Hampshire, which neighbors Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, has four. West Virginia voted Democratic for decades until Bush made values an issue in 2000; Kerry is stressing the theme this year. In Nevada, an influx of Hispanics and the administration's push to use Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site make the state tougher for Bush than in 2000. Six of the 11 tossup states were won by Gore: Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. But the margin of victory was just a few thousand votes in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin — meaning Kerry has his work cut out to keep them. Of the three, Bush likes his chances best in Wisconsin, where he is targeting rural voters in a bid to widen the electoral gap by 10 votes. ___ Flush with money and leading a united party, Kerry increased his odds by expanding the playing field into a handful of GOP states that Bush easily won in 2000, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia and Colorado. Results have been mixed. After testing the waters, Kerry pulled his ads from Arkansas and Louisiana, and downgraded his focus on Virginia and Arizona. Hispanic voters make Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it's a tough state to win. "The race is still fundamentally tied, and the Electoral College (news - web sites) map reflects that," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "But there is beginning to be a slight tilt toward us with Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona no longer being seriously contested." Kerry added another Republican-leaning state to his target list when he chose Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) of North Carolina as his running mate. Aides are divided over whether North Carolina will remain a battleground through November, but its 15 electoral votes are too tempting to ignore. Missouri, a traditional battleground, recently moved to the Bush-leaning category and is being written off by some Democrats. The Kerry campaign reduced its ad campaign in the state after polls showed him consistently 4 to 6 percentage points behind Bush, with little room for improvement. Republican advantages in rural Missouri and the fast-growing exurbs make the state tough for Democrats, but Kerry will likely keep it on the table through November in case the political winds shift. Besides, abandoning a traditional battleground would be embarrassing. The four-term Massachusetts senator has begun to gather strength in traditionally Democratic states such as Maine, Minnesota and Washington. All were tossups in the spring, but now lean toward Kerry. A good convention could push Pennsylvania and Oregon into the lean-Kerry category. Recent polls give Kerry an edge in both states, but strategists for Kerry and Bush say the races are still tossup. "There is an angry feeling toward the incumbent because of Iraq," said David Sweet, who managed Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's 2000 campaign. "I think Kerry will win in the end, but that's partly based on an assumption of things to come. It's close." Of the states won by Gore, Pennsylvania is by far Bush's top target. The president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and has visited it more than any other contested state — 30 trips since his inauguration. For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.
Some day, decades from now, when there isn't an extremely close election, maybe, just maybe, we can dump the electoral system.
I don't like the electoral college all that much either, but it sure beats a popular vote. To hell with a couple of big states getting their way over the rest of the nation. I'd prefer a system where each state gets one vote, with Washington D.C. being the tie-breaker. That would really make campaigning EVERYWHERE important as each state is worth exactly the same. Of course, we'd have to annex new states two at a time to keep an odd number.
Assuming the same vote rates for every state, you could win the election with less than 10 states. I think maybe we should keep the electoral college.
You're in a little bit of denial there. If you were to tell me that John Kerry would be in a virtual TIE before the CONVENTION AND DEBATES with a war time, incumbent President with a $200 million war chest .. I would say I guess that other candidate must be George Bush huh? "Low expectations" wont help him this year. The debacle George Bush has gotten himself into is worst than anything his father did and far worst than Reagan. Not even Iraq-Contra was this bad.
and right now you can win the election with 11 states. CA - 55 NY - 31 TX - 34 FL - 27 PA - 21 IL - 21 OH - 20 MI - 17 NJ - 15 NC - 15 GA - 15 total - 271 so what? individual Americans are more important than individual states.
I don't trust Associated Propaganda. Remember, perception is everything. Invent a story, leak it to the press. If an article came out saying Kerry was way ahead, I'd still shrug. Election is a long time away.
Interestingly enough, Kerry has a better than even chance to win 8 of those 11, with 186 electoral votes. That's including Florida, which is very much in play. Yes, the election is still some time off, but I expect Kerry to have a substantial victory in the electoral college. The popular vote will be much closer. In my opinion, the undecided voters will break for Kerry in a big way when it comes right down to it. The desire to replace Bush will outweigh the uncertainty about Kerry, and the wish that he were someone more exciting. (hell, I wish he were more exciting!) Bush has provided a surplus of the kind "excitement" that a majority of Americans will decide they can do without.
So what? In any other voting this is acceptable. Do you weight ALL STAR votes from Idaho higher than those from NY? True democracy IS total vote, not a system designed like the electoral college.
More liberal hypocrisy with regard to the electoral college system -- a system that is defined in our Constitution. Aren't these the same liberals that were accusing Bush and Ashcroft of assaulting the Constitution? Of course it is. Now lookie here at what the libs are doing! Yup. It's hypocrisy at its finest, ladies and gents! Still bitter about the 2000 election, ain't ya?
I think most people fail to remeber that befor the 2000 election it looked like Bush would win the popular vote and Gore would win the EC.....Gore came out with quotes like "well thats the system" and stuff like that. No I dont have a link.
You associate one piece of the Constitution with all others? Oh, wait, this is liberals we're talking about here.. different standards, right.
Typical Southern Conservatism type answer. Few things there hot shot. 1. Im NOT a democrat. 2. Even If I was a republican, I am capable of having independant thought unlike most republicans and would think the college just sucks. 3. WTF are you rambling about with hypocracy? Show me how IM being a hypocrite. 4. Im not bitter at all over the 2000 election. If one thing its done, is that it has allowed Dumbass to become president and remind us all what Republicans do best once in power. Kill the economy, lose the nation millions of jobs, look for war, and make a new record for all time deficits that my children have to pay for. 5. Funny how republicans use the constitution as a cruth when it comes to their needs, like GUN control. Yet now we have a president trying to tinker it more then ever....****cough cough**** gay marriage. Still happy over the RIM job the electoral college gave this country arent ya?
i do remember that but i've been against the EC since 1996 which was the first national election I was able to vote in. I just think it discourages voting in states like TX or CA where there is already an assumed winner.
But it is perfectly acceptable to hack the constitution regarding gay marriage when we already have laws in place...cause you know, those gays will bring our country down.
I concur. I don't know who I'm going to vote for, but I know Bush is winning Texas, which would make my vote feel useless if I vote for Kerry. Same for states that are heavily populated by democrats. Everyone's vote should count.
There is a saying in Tennessee which goes like this - Fool me once....shame on me.......fool me twice.......shame on...
