[AOL Fanhouse] Anyone can win the title!

Hayesfan · Apr 14, 2008

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/04/14/the-rotation-anybody-can-win-the-nba-title/

I thought this was a pretty good article. I suggest clicking on the link to see the whole thing.

Laugh away, you cynics. You see Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard looking up at a headline about winning the NBA championship, and you laugh. You think to yourself, "Self, there's no way Tracy McGrady or Chris Paul can win it all this year."

You laugh, but you shouldn't. Ten teams have a legitimate shot at winning this title -- the top seven of the West and the top three in the East. The elite tier of the NBA is just that crowded this year, and it should be no surprise to see confetti raining down on any of those 10 faces come June.

First, let me show you why this postseason is so wide open.

The x axis represents offensive rating, the Dean Oliver-created metric which represents a team's points per 100 possessions. (More info on why we use this can be found here.) The y axis represents defensive rating, which is exactly like offensive rating but for defense. Better offenses are found to the right, better defenses are found toward the top.

Note that I omitted all but the best 10 teams in the league here -- I'm not going to blow smoke about a Denver championship. There are three tiers of the NBA, and I'm only vouching for the top:

Click to expand...

Those 10 Upper Crust teams, though, have real shots at the title. The map shows seven of them clustered together, all similar in quality. Boston stands alone, with an unbelievable defense but a somewhat lacking (by these standards) offense. San Antonio and Houston share "great defense, questionable offense" characteristics.

Most folks only give championship credence to the Celtics, Spurs, Lakers, Suns, and Pistons. You might be able to find someone who thinks Dallas can win it all. Maybe some seamheads (like John Hollinger) will pick Utah. But only the grandmothers of Tyson Chandler and Rashard Lewis are betting on New Orleans or Orlando. But the fact is, they're right in the hunt with the other teams usually named as possible champs. Consider:

The Spurs and Rockets are practically identical statistically. It's remarkable to me that you'll find plenty of folks circle San Antonio ... and no one to choose Houston. Why?

Both are top three on defense and about league-average on offense. Both suffer stretches where buckets are hard to come by ... but both give their opponents plenty of stretches where buckets are hard to come by. And save your breath -- I can hear your cranial gears pumping out the "San Antonio's got championship experience! T-Mac can't get out of the first round!" argument already. I also heard that argument before Peyton and Eli Manning won back-to-back Super Bowls. As such, you won't find me (or Dwyane Wade) backing the assumptions that only experienced teams win titles.

The Spurs have the league's best interior defense and a top five two-guard who can score on anyone. The Rockets have the league's best perimeter defense and a top five two-guard who can score on anyone..
Click to expand...

mrdan · Apr 14, 2008

Hayesfan said:

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/04/14/the-rotation-anybody-can-win-the-nba-title/

I thought this was a pretty good article. I suggest clicking on the link to see the whole thing.
Click to expand...

Great article. The chart really helps to visualize the bread & butter of each team.

bladeage · Apr 14, 2008

babydill · Apr 14, 2008

You got confused by his charts? They were put together so the average person could read them.

Hence "CRAP TEAMS" on the bottom tier, "MEH TEAMS" in the middle.....

It's not that hard.

Good article. Breaks down basically what everyone is known for. I think he was spot on with most of his team breakdowns. Thanks for the link.

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[AOL Fanhouse] Anyone can win the title!

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