Anyone with an ESPN insider account? Rockets' recipe: Flexibility wins

By Eric Neel
ESPN.com
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When I tell you the Houston Rockets are in third place in the Western Conference in late March, you aren't surprised. You knew from the start that their offseason acquisition of Ron Artest would make them contenders.

But how about when I tell you the Rockets are in third place in the West in late March and Artest has missed 13 games due to injury? That Shane Battier and Tracy McGrady have missed 22 and 37 games, respectively? That they traded away their starting point guard, Rafer Alston, at the deadline? That they've recently lost one of their key reserves, Carl Landry, because he was shot in the leg on March 16? Then you have to ask: How exactly are they doing it? How have they managed to go 16-5 since the middle of February, including wins over the Cavs, Nuggets, Hornets and Spurs? How have they remained one of the most dangerous teams heading into the postseason?

The short answer is versatility. The slightly longer answer is versatility by design.

The explanation is for ESPN Insiders. Insider

When I met with Rockets GM Daryl Morey for a story in ESPN The Magazine's season preview, we were interrupted over lunch by a phone call from team doctors reporting on the condition of Landry's knee, which had been a source of concern the previous season. At the time, the Rockets were deciding whether to match Landry's three-year, $9 million offer from the Charlotte Bobcats. They were also waiting to see whether McGrady's nagging shoulder injury would respond to offseason treatment, and were preparing to begin the season without the services of Battier, who was hobbled by a bad ankle.

"You can't think in terms of one way to get it done," Morey said then, explaining that his team's chances wouldn't be a matter of some simple math in which Artest + McGrady + Yao = a shot at the Larry O'Brien Trophy. "You're always thinking about contingencies and flexibility."
[+] EnlargeRon Artest
Bill Baptist/NBAE/Getty ImagesWith Tracy McGrady out for the season, Ron Artest has increased his production for the Rockets.

Morey and his in-house team of stats analysts have distinguished themselves in recent years by identifying individual contributors who are also strong value plays on the open market. Landry, acquired in a draft-day trade with the Sonics in 2007 and considered by many to be too small to play power forward in the NBA, has been a consistent inside scorer and defender. Battier, whose arrival in a 2006 draft-day deal for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift raised the ire of the Houston faithful, has been a key perimeter defender and effective 3-point shooter. And Aaron Brooks, taken with the 26th pick in the 2007 draft and widely considered too small at the time, has proven himself an effective scorer as a pro. "Pac-10 coaches all told us he was the one player in the league they had to scheme for defensively," Morey told me last fall. "We knew he had something unique in him."

But more than a series of isolated investments and evaluations, Morey's moves are geared toward the logic of ensemble, toward the way pieces work together, and can be rearranged if need be. At the start of the season he talked less about the arrival of Artest and the potential punch of the "Big Three," and more about the depth of the team's roster and the ability to absorb injuries and other obstacles.

When McGrady went down for good on Feb. 9, taking his 15.6 points, 5 assists and 4.4 rebounds a game with him, the Rockets didn't panic, but quickly redistributed his minutes to Artest (whose playing time jumped from an average of 26.5 minutes per game in the eight games leading up to McGrady's departure to 37.8 in the eight games that followed) and Battier (whose minutes per game jumped from 31.9 to 36.9).

And in doing so, beyond merely adjusting to his absence, the McGrady-less Rockets have become a better defensive team. Both Artest (+6.2) and Battier (+6.4) have much higher net floor-time values than McGrady (+2.8). And the new starting lineup of Brooks-Artest-Battier-Scola-Yao, which has logged the most time since McGrady's departure, not only compensates for the loss of the team's star guard, but actually outperforms either of the most heavily used lineups that featured T-Mac (Alston-McGrady-Artest-Scola-Yao and Brooks-McGrady-Battier-Scola-Yao) by more than 20 plus/minus points.

The Rockets have been pressed into starting 16 different lineups through the first 73 games of the season, but Morey stressed last fall that a fluid approach to player personnel was a core element of Houston's strategy, and he praised head coach Rick Adelman's willingness to play veterans and rookies, stars and subs, bigs and littles, and scorers and defenders, in a variety of sets. "He plays whoever is going to help us win," Morey said.

That reliance on unconventional combinations was evident again after the Rockets traded Alston in February. The move gave Houston payroll flexibility, but it also changed the dynamic on the floor. The Rockets replaced Alston with Brooks (who is not a true point, but a shooter being asked to play the position) and Kyle Lowry (also not a true point, but a dogged perimeter defender). And again the Rockets didn't just survive. They improved.

Brooks has played 30 minutes a night since the trade and, according to the plus/minus data at 82games.com, he provides a 3.0 points-per-100-possessions boost to the Rockets offense when he's on the floor. Lowry has logged 21.3 minutes per game since coming over from Memphis and makes Houston's 4.4 points-per-100-possessions defense stiffer when he's on the court. Though the two are less effective than Alston was at distributing the ball, their combined net plus/minus rating (-0.3) is actually considerably better than Alston's was (-2.9).

It's just another example of how the the Rockets' world works: The improbable is possible and possibilities are always shifting. Two non-points running the show can be better than a pure one, and a team playing without its superstar can reinvent itself and come out smelling like a rose.

Every team suffers injuries to key contributors over the course of a season. The difference between a title contender and a team that makes an early exit in the playoffs often comes down to luck: Did your best players stay healthy? By imagining the roster and lineup less as a specific recipe and more as a collection of useful ingredients, Morey's Rockets are making their own luck.

Eric Neel is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

 

I like the find, good one.

 

great stuff! Thanks for posting this.

 

ditto.

 

Seems that basketball analysts are all buying into statistical analysis now. Albeit the above article's usage is rudimentary, it is very convincing. I'd much prefer to read these types of evidence-based articles than hearing/reading most NCAA announcers'/analysts' rants.

Get well soon Landry!

 

This is a truly unique angle to look at our success so far. This reporter sure does earn his money.

 

This is a good find and well-written article by the writer,Rockets' been flexible and playing extremely well on both end of the court.But I guess there's more underneath the water that Ron's streaky shooting performance should be prohibited from the game,it's unacceptable,he's magnificent on the court putting pressure on the opponents but he sometimes just thought too much and wanna carry the whole team on his back,that's not in his house.If he could lay it off,then we'll be fine into the postseason.

Somehow I still miss Rafer Alston,that guy could distribute the ball well and control the tempo,and now that we play uptempo game some nights,it's bothering me that whether or not Kyle or Aaron would be able to function well in the playoffs.That's the different stage for em to show what they've got up their sleeves.

 

Good read, nice post.

 

Eric Neel just gained a fan. Nice read.

 

Good article

 

Wow something postitve coming from ESPN about the Rockets.

 

Ok guys, I know this is a nice article but he obviously hasn't watched the Rocekts this year. I mean come on, he says Tmac went down and that his minutes were distributed to Battier and Artest. He doesn't even mention Von Wafer at all who in fact got the majority of those minutes. He says both Lowry and Brooks are not true point guards. This statement is true about Brooks but Lowry is the definition of a true point guard. Good passer, ball handler, sets up the offence, decent mid ranger jumper.

Honestly, all this guy did was look up some stats and some +/- numbers and decided to write an article.

 

That was a great post.

 

Nice read and the funny part is the writer left out the most glaring difference: the Morey-led talent influx that's undeniably paid dividends.

 

I have much respect for this guy, now only if the so called NBA commentators/ analysts in TNT an ESPN would do the same. By same I mean some research before a game. Thanks for the article.

 

Nothings perfect. I'll still take a positive article about the Rockets by ESPN.

 

I've been thinking about this for a long time, ever since the injury bug started to be real active on our roster a couple of years back. I thought a really smart GM/coach would take the contingency of injuries into account when he built his team. I am glad that Morey is one smart mojo.

And while he has his flaws, Adelman is a good fit in this philosophy. A rigid coach would be devastated by all the uncertainly created by injuries what we had.

 

These guys ALWAYS jump on you when you are winning.