Iowa and New Hampshire usually decide the Democratic Party nomination. If there's any doubt, Super Tuesday ratifies. Not this year. Obama upset in Iowa; Clinton upset in NH. Super Tuesday came and went with no clear front-runner. Clinton, the previous "inevitable," found herself with no contingency plan for not being the clear nominee and sat slack jawed while Obama ran up not only 12 straight victories (of around 30% per) but a 160 or so delegate lead. Her strategy to make it up? Huge victories in Ohio and Texas on 'Junior Super Tuesday.' But Obama had momentum. Though Clinton enjoyed 20 point margins two weeks out, Obama closed the gap and looked likely to seal on March 4. That didn't happen either. She won the popular vote in 3 of 4 contests (including the two big prizes) and netted a grand total of somewhere between 0 and 20 delegates, reducing Obama's lead to 140 at best. So we wake up tomorrow on March 5 with no more 'Super Tuesdays,' and so few delegates to be chosen through actual votes that Clinton would need a very favorable combination of the following to deny Obama the nomination: - Huge victories in all remaining contests, along the line of 70% or so per race - Approval of, execution of and very favorable results in new contests in Florida and Michigan - AND super delegates breaking hard for her. There is no doubt that tonight's results have earned her a serious second (or third or fourth) look. There is likewise no doubt that she faces an extremely difficult uphill battle. So what happens now? How does Hillary win huge in states in which Obama is clearly favored? How does she convince super delegates that she's more electable, particularly in red states where Obama's done so much better? What happens now?
Obama is still very very strong in Mississippi and North Carolina. Along with some of the western states yet to vote. And Puerto Rico - They have 55 delegates, how in the world does that work?????
Theres this talk that it wont truly matter who wins the Dem party because of the split vote between Obama and Clinton... and that McCain will win regardless. I dont believe that, I truly think OBama can pull thru
Obama is also strong in Wyoming, Indiana and Oregon. And yet, Clinton needs about 65-70% of all remaining votes to get even with him among actual voters. If she doesn't get those margins in WY, IN, OR, NC and MS, she's looking for over 80% in PA and the rest. (And it's not for nothing that she keeps saying "the race goes on to Pennsylvania" and ignoring that he's favored almost everywhere else.) So how does she win? Is it even possible? Somebody lay out a scenario. I acknowledge that she has momentum coming out of tonight, but she didn't make up the difference like she said she would. So how does she win? With math, please.
I'm in the same boat as you concering that bolded statement. How does Hillary win? The only way would be superdelegates and I don't believe they will swing the election in the opposite way that the popular vote is going.
The consensus is that the Democratic Party will win in the November election. However, that consensus is beginning to show a few cracks. Will the Democratic Party manage to shoot itself in the foot?
I'll get to it in a bit, but Obama's delegate lead is in the 85-90 range, not 140. That's where it starts...
Methinks hellwhory might have a little Tonya Harding in her.......I can see her getting Obama outta the way someway somehow
Sorry, who makes up the consensus? The media? This message board? I have honestly yet to see this "consensus" you speak of.
After two of the closest presidential elections in history (one being the most landmark, controversial election ever)... with a Republican president breaking records with astonishingly low approval ratings... and a Congress that just flipped to the other party heavily.... the natural trend is to assume we're about to get a Dem in the white house. Just thinking out loud.
The Rezko/Iraqi funds to buy his house issue could sink Obama, leading to his withdrawal from the race. Heck, so much is possible. Hillary's team could find a lot of dirt on Obama and put it out there for public consumption. A LOT can happen.
The other thing as I think about it is the Superdelegates. Obama has proven that he SUCKS in the battleground states. That's no way to win in the General. Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are exceptionally weak for him. They are strong for Hillary. If I'm a Superdelegate, I take note of that.
And currently has a lower approval rating than the president. Anyway, I agree with you that maybe a year or so ago before the campaigns even got started this was true. But what does that matter now? So many new variables have been introduced in the past few months, like say, the actual nominees who are going to be running. I don't think that "consensus" exists anymore at all. - The Republicans have a candidate with large crossover appeal or at least appeal to independents. - It will be the first time a women or black man is on the presidential ballot as a party's nominee. - Of the limited objective data that has been gathered for the general election (polls that match obama to mccain or hillary to mccain) don't show any clear advantage either way. Just my feeling at this point that anyone trying to predict the outcome right now is wasting their time.
the biggest losers of the entire election are the stupid states that rushed their primaries to the front - they ended up losing on millions of $$$ that would have been redirected into their economies.
that's an institutional rating that seldom changes and has steadily declined no matter who is in charge (though it has upticked slightly in the last year)
Batman, not only are we lock step on our views of this election cycle, but I awoke with that song in my head. A sad slow version of the V.U. She's clearly going to push to the bitter (convention) end at this point. My remaining hope is that American starts to see Obama as a true hero for finding a way to remove her from the national scene. The next states are his, big time. I hope the media gives him a sliver of time here and there, in between homages to her.
According to CNN right now his delegate lead is 130. When you include superdelegates then it's down to 86. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
I think Hillary earned the right to stay in the race. It's an uphill battle for her, but she won and can claim a momentum. We just need to see how much it will carry. Hillary should be ashamed for employing scare tactics with her 3 AM phone ads. Those are the exact types of things that everyone jumped on the GOP for during the congressional elections. Hillary's interview where she let doubts linger about Obama was crazy. I have watched it several times now, and I'm more than ever certain that it was intentional on her part. She knows very well he's a member of a Christian church. For her to throw in those qualifiers is just political BS. I'm glad she came out later with a strong statement. But at the time she did play politics with the issue. I hope we don't see more of this in rest of the campaign, but she has won the right to stay in as a legitimate contender.
I doubt either of them has the delegates to clinch the nomination when all is said and done, thus, brokered convention.
