1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

ABC News Reports RNC Exploring Options if Trump Drops Out of Race

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Deckard, Aug 3, 2016.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    I don't see much of a chance this ends well for the GOP.

    1. If Trump stays in, he'll continue to be Trump and drag other GOP candidates into each controversy-- and risk either alienating the broader electorate or alienating the GOP base every time the media ask them about the latest Trump garbage.

    2. If Trump is forced out via some party rule, he'll b**** and moan about what a undemocratic process it is (and he'd have a point). It will spark a GOP civil war within 3 months of the election.

    3. The least likely scenario is Trump getting convinced to leave voluntarily. His ego is too big, especially in light of the big crowds he's drawing and the donations that are coming in, to admit defeat even if the polls show him down significantly. He'll think that there is a big "silent majority" out there waiting to vote Trump.

    Even if he does drop out, I don't know how enthusiastic he'll endorse his replacement and how much his voters will even buy his endorsement in their disappointment. True, the vast majority of Bernie voters have rallied around the Democratic flag, but that was at least a part of a primary process. An unprecedented quitting of a nominee is going to introduce weird variables.

    In sum:

    <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FT4_Fefew78" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  2. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2013
    Messages:
    63,394
    Likes Received:
    26,012
    His endorsement means nothing. Honestly if they could convince him to drop out in the next month, they'd have a good chance to beat a really weak Democratic nominee. Basically the only thing that makes Hillary look good is Trump, without him, she'd be in trouble.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    Someone like Kasich would have had a good chance if he was the nominee to start with. Having him as a "replacement" is going to introduce some complications, though-- specifically all these disappointed Trump supporters just going "F this!" to the GOP, and perhaps to the entire electoral process. He may still be favored over Hillary, but we are getting into a weird territory here.
     
  4. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2013
    Messages:
    63,394
    Likes Received:
    26,012
    Those people aren't really relevant though, if they were, Trump's numbers wouldn't be going down the tubes. The people who are truly loyal Trump voters are a tiny percentage.

    If given a truly viable alternative to Hillary, I think you'd have tons of supporters coming out of the woodwork. She is nearly as bad as Trump....only it doesn't seem that way due to the presence of Trump.
     
  5. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2005
    Messages:
    42,674
    Likes Received:
    39,252
    She's not "nearly as bad as Trump."

    Trump is a unique class of is own throughout history. I'm not sure we've ever had a candidate that was so roundly disavowed by national security and foreign policy experts/analysts/professionals with ties to both sides of the aisle. I can't think of another presidential candidate in history that lacked the core competency that Trump lacks.

    I know you are prone to extreme hyperbole and that you hate Clinton, but she isn't in the same class as Trump. Not close.
     
  6. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2002
    Messages:
    13,971
    Likes Received:
    1,701
    Hillary is bad in the sense she is a corrupt politician that likes to operate above the law sometimes, like just about all top level politicians from both parties. Trump on the other hand is totally incompetence in how to run the country. I would much rather have a competent corrupt politician than a total buffoon who think nuclear weapon is something you can use to destroy ISIS.
     
  7. TheresTheDagger

    Joined:
    May 20, 2010
    Messages:
    10,099
    Likes Received:
    7,741
    I couldn't disagree more. Look a the polling after maybe the worst week in the history of modern american politics. He still gets about 40%. Say what you will, that's loyalty in big numbers.

    Hillary is a known quantity. She's got the left 40% locked in regardless. The 20% in the middle would avoid her in droves and vote for a candidate like Rubio/Kasich but would the Trumpites do so? Highly unlikely. We saw that last spring. They would view it as a betrayal.

    The only way Trump leaving would work is if he does it voluntarily...maybe uses a "health issue" as an excuse...THEN gets behind Mike Pence at the top of the ticket and candidate X for VP. That's the way I see it.

    In short, get ready for President Hillary Clinton and 4 years of ****.
     
  8. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2002
    Messages:
    35,617
    Likes Received:
    7,572
    How many of those 40% are just voting against Hillary? I would guess more than half.
     
  9. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Messages:
    26,334
    Likes Received:
    9,554
    Does it matter?

    Here's the thing. Expectations are so historically low for a candidate like Trump that, even after possibly the worst week in the history of politics, he's still within earshot. What that tells me is that a similarly bad week for Hillary could be much more damaging.

    Same goes for the debates. Trump shouldn't care when or where. The expectations for him are lower than low. If he can put together a couple of complete sentences, his toupee stays on, and he doesn't literally murder someone in the audience, it will be considered a success.
     
  10. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    15,026
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    Its hard to find a statistic on how many people straight ticket vote, but I suspect its high. In other words, it doesn't matter how bad either candidate is, people will vote for their party regardless.

     
  11. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2006
    Messages:
    8,517
    Likes Received:
    2,851
    I think it's not that simple. Take me for example. I was not at all psyched about Hillary. But with Trump's nomination and everything that has followed, Hillary has gained credibility in comparison. I have a better opinion of her than I did six months ago, thanks to Trump! And I don't think a replacement Republican will remove the credibility that Hillary has gained in the eyes of many. Plus, much of the Republican party is tarnished now for their extreme weakness. If they can F this up so bad, how bad are they messing up smaller issues?
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    15,026
    Likes Received:
    6,198
    If Hillarys credibility has risen from your perspective because the bar has been lowered (Trump), then YOU are the problem.

    You state the Republicans have lowered the bar so this gives the excuse for Democrats to lower the bar? Quit voting for either of them. It speaks volumes for the people who vote for either candidate.
     
  13. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2000
    Messages:
    19,211
    Likes Received:
    14,403
  14. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2002
    Messages:
    13,971
    Likes Received:
    1,701
    We all know either Trump or Hillary will win, so stop this vote for third party spiel.
     
  15. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2002
    Messages:
    35,617
    Likes Received:
    7,572
    Probably not unless he drops out, which he ain't gonna do.

    I'm just saying that I highly doubt 40% of the country is "loyal" to Mein Trumpf (sorry, I just can't help myself). Maybe 10% or 15%, but the rest of that 40% are just voting against Hillary.

    Theoretically, if he were to drop out, I doubt 40% of the country would be that angry.
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    Well, even 10-15% can swing an election.

    13 million of GOP primary voters voted for Trump. They won't vote HRC but if they stay home, it could make a difference. Also, I think a good chunk of the folks who turned to HRC due to Trump will stay with her. But anyhow, we will never know for sure unless Trump is actually replaced.
     
  17. bnb

    bnb Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2002
    Messages:
    6,992
    Likes Received:
    315
    or voting party line. Like Pippen in a Rockets jersey. Ya still support the team....but damn, it hurts.
     
  18. Jugdish

    Jugdish Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2006
    Messages:
    8,308
    Likes Received:
    8,179
    Hillary could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not have as bad a week as Trump just had.
     
  19. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2002
    Messages:
    56,811
    Likes Received:
    39,117
    (off topic for a moment!)

    Her parents were both blonde Labradoodles and big. I picked the smallest puppy that had the personality I was looking for, which turned out to be a female. She weighs around 72 pounds and is smart as a whip. I've taught her several tricks. It's the second Labradoodle I've owned. The first one I had was from the dog pound back in 1972. No one knew there was such a thing as a Labradoodle then. He's still the smartest dog I've ever had.


    (On topic!)

    [​IMG]

    Insiders to Trump: Drop out

    'I’d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more,' said a New Hampshire Republican.

    Amid widespread chatter that Donald Trump could drop out of the presidential race before Election Day, Republican insiders in key battleground states have a message for The Donald: Get out.

    That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states. The majority of GOP insiders, 70 percent, said they want Trump to drop out of the race and be replaced by another Republican candidate — with many citing Trump’s drag on Republicans in down-ballot races. But those insiders still think it’s a long-shot Trump would actually end his campaign and be replaced by another GOP candidate.


    “I’d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more,” said a New Hampshire Republican — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously.

    “The effect Trump is having on down-ballot races has the potential to be devastating in November,” added a Florida Republican. “His negative image among Hispanics, women and independents is something that could be devastating to Republicans. Trump’s divisive rhetoric to the Hispanic community at large has the potential to be devastating for years to come.”

    Trump has given no indication that he’s considering quitting, and his campaign insists his perseverance is one of his best attributes. But two network reports recently suggested senior GOP leaders were eyeing how that process would work, just in case.

    A Trump exit from the race after he’s been formally nominated would trigger a rarely used vacancy rule in the national Republican Party’s rulebook. That rule empowers the Republican National Committee — a 168-member panel that includes three GOP leaders from every state and territory — to select a replacement. The RNC is also authorized to reconvene the national convention, which would be all but logistically impossible.

    The RNC is extremely sensitive to any suggestion that it — the party establishment — is attempting to supplant the will of grass-roots Republicans, so invoking this process is already fraught with peril. But if the RNC’s 168 members convened to pick a substitute candidate, each state’s votes would be weighted based on the size of their delegation to last month’s convention.

    In this scenario, Republicans would likely struggle to find a consensus nominee, but immediate options would include Sen. Ted Cruz (the runner-up in the GOP primary), Trump running mate Mike Pence and House Speaker Paul Ryan.


    Insiders suggested a handful of replacement candidates: A Florida Republican said Ryan “is the only one who can unite the party,” while multiple others plugged Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

    But just because GOP insiders want Trump out of the race doesn’t mean they think he will oblige them. Asked about the possibility, a 58 percent majority think it’s certain Trump will stay in through Election Day, including many who want him out of the race. Two insiders compared the odds of Trump dropping out to them winning the Powerball drawing — two extremely unlikely events with relative equal desirability.

    “I also wish I could lose 20 pounds, cut 5 shots off my handicap and play the piano,” a New Hampshire Republican added. “None of those things will happen, and neither will Trump drop out.”

    “Here is the quandary I find myself in,” an Ohio Republican said. “While I would love for Trump to drop out and anyone else to take the mantle, that kind of talk will only harden his supporters. We cannot let them think we stole this from them. There has never been a better example of ‘damned if you do, damned if you don't.’”

    A number of insiders cited Trump’s ego as proof he won’t slink away from the campaign before voters have their say.

    “He is an egomaniac,” a Colorado Republican said. “There is no chance he would voluntarily exit the race.”

    “He’s not going anywhere. His ego wouldn’t allow it,” a Virginia Republican added. “He'll dominate the news for the next three months, each day more painful than the last, finally lose, say it was rigged and get a new [television] show.”

    Democrats mostly agreed Trump would see his campaign through to the end. A similar percentage, 55 percent, expressed confidence Trump would stay in the race, while 45 percent said it was possible he could drop out.

    “Not for a second do I believe that to be a possibility,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “His ego is way too big for that. It is also too big to entertain the possibility of a loss. Thus, we see this week the beginning of a very vocal narrative about the ‘rigged’ system that may cost him the election. If he loses, and I believe he will, God help us all because Trump and his minions will foment an uprising of epic proportions.”

    A handful of insiders said they wanted Trump to stay in, but not because they believe in his ability to win or capability to serve as president. If Trump stays in and loses, they said, it could help the party heal itself after the election.

    “Trump won the nomination,” a Michigan Republican said. “He should lose fair and square. Only then will the party base have to reckon with what they've done.”

    “I want Trump to feel the blame for this loss,” added an Iowa Republican, “not put it on the doorstep of ‘the Establishment.’”

    The Iowa Republican predicted that rumors of a Trump exit are likely only to get louder: “Talk of Trump dropping out will reach a fevered pitch next week, when his poll numbers bottom out,” the Republican said. “We need to brace ourselves.”


    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/insiders-to-trump-drop-out-226689
     
    #99 Deckard, Aug 5, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2016
  20. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    Shouldn't Hillary intentionally court some bad press for a couple days to keep Trump alive in the polls for a while just to make sure he doesn't drop out?
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now