So, it looks like Afflalo is the center piece of the Howard trade for Orlando. The rest of their return is (a) exile Richardson, (b) likely lowish 1st rounders and (c) unproven recent mid-first round picks Harkless and Vucevic. My question is this: How does he compared to the important pieces of Howard packages: (1) Lopez and (2) the Toronto pick. Afflalo has been very efficient while scoring a modest # of points in Denver, and will probably take more shots in Orlando (while experiencing a drop in efficiency). He might end up scoring near 20 ppg, but I just don't see him having a very high ceiling. Also, he is by no means cheap $ wise at this point and he ain't very young, either (three months OLDER than Dwight Howard). I certainly don't think he compares favorably to, say, Eric Gordon, who the Clippers got as the main piece for CP. I would probably prefer both Lopez (centers are hard to find) and the Toronto pick (trust my scouting and ability to draft a good player under rookie contract) to Afflalo, too.
Harkless can't shoot. So most likely he'll be crap. Vucevic might be fundamentally sound, but he's really quite unathletic (really!). And you'd think that puts his ceiling at Zaza Pachulia. So most likely he'll be crap. Afflalo had that 'breakout' season where he posted 15ppg. But he doesn't look like a big time scorer, rather a great defender who can contribute at the offensive end. His contract is much worse than JRich's and one wonders why on earth they want him through 2016? Along with Harrington (through 2015) they're hardly clearing out 'bad contracts' to rebuild. Lotto protected picks are lottery protected.... Can't see how this does anything except flush Orlando down the toilet for 3-4 years.
I think you're selling short the Toronto pick as well Carl. It comes with a couple of rookies (or 2nd year players), probably the Dallas pick, and also with a big expiring and the removal of 2 bad contracts (= max cap space next off-season). I can't believe that we wouldn't offer something like that, and that Hennigan would go for this rumoured deal in place of it. So I think the proposed 4 team deal is bogus. But stupider things have happened...
At least, Orlando still has their own picks, because I'm sure those will be of value by the end of the season.
It would have made A LOT more sense if instead of taking on Afflalo AND Harrington, they would have just gotten Iguodala. Afflalo and Harrington are getting paid a combined $14.24 million this season, and they are both under contract until at least 2014/15 (Afflalo has a player option for 2015/16). Iguodala is the better all-around player, he's an all-star, and he's getting paid $14.7 million this year with just a player option left for the 2013/14 season. They could still get Vucevic, Harkless, and 1st round picks.
I would take Lopez at his contract with Brooks, Hump's 1 year deal (to dump more salary on the Nets) and a bunch of crappy picks instead of this deal. Affalo and Harrington are set to make: (in millions) $14.2499 $14.9049 $15.1723 $15.3661 $7.75 (Affalo only) Both have player options in their final years. Orlando is taking back an additional $52 million in salary when you include the rookie contracts. They are not getting ANY cap relief whatsoever in this trade. It is being done for the players and the crappy picks. They have to be influenced by Dwight's agent.
They got draft picks(if you want to consider that a + or win, ha) but other than that, didn't set out what they *reportedly* were looking to accomplish. Shed bad contracts young players draft picks Owner Rich DeVos must have mandated a 'win-now' move(or who knows what they were thinking). They won't be bad, they won't be good. Again, welcome to the treadmill. Hop on!
Harrington = partially guaranteed during the last two years = take away 3-4 mil off those numbers in '13 and '14. When you add Harkless, Vucevic and Lopez health, it's a toss up. Dropping a bad contract or two is fine... but are you really going to spend it on free agents? They need to stay in the mid lottery for the next 2 years, by that time most of their bad contracts will be done. Maybe they will even move them next year as expirings. That part is not critical. But both deals are crappy, tbh. Jazz turned D-Will into Favors, Kanter and probably another lottery pick next year (from GSW). Hornets got Gordon, Rivers and a look at Aminu. This just doesn't compare.
He is not as good as he is reputed to be. The Nuggets were worse defensively with him on the floor than with him off. http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?team=DEN&year=2011-2012 Also, the Nuggets just traded him, Harrington and a 1st rounder to acquire Iguodala, a real "very good defender."
he's still a good one on one defender, but he became lazy to close out on shooters. he was better when he got that contract. he also started taking worse shots. full pockets + star sickness = sell while value is high. but he still has it somewhere, maybe this will be a wake-up call. a similar thing happened with Nene as well. It's funny how they both are already out of Denver.
When he was at UCLA he reminded me of Mario Elie. And as much as I love Elie, aside from the year he shattered his wrist, he was a role player on his best days. So the sad part is, IMO, Afflalo isn't even as good as Elie was.
