A sign of things to come?

Most of these Democrat pickups are by fairly conservative (especially socially) candidates who's biggest challenge is to distance themselves from Obama and Pelosi. In this race in particular, Jenkins was running attack ads on Cazayoux about how he will only do Pelosi's bidding in Congress, while Cazayoux (successfully) convinced voters otherwise.

I expect a lot of conservative Dems to win in November

 

The Democratic Party should be a shoe-in for this election. However, Democrats have a penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. For example, the party will not be able to control the radical left, who will be unable to abandon their ceaseless, mindless attacks. This could sicken moderates and move these swing votes back into the Republican Party.

My recommendation is to get out of the gutter and stick to the issues. McCain is not the devil. In fact, he is a decent human being. However, his policies lack imagination and are rooted in the mistakes of the past. That said, Hillary is far more rooted in old politics and is a vicious, mean-spirited harpy to boot.

Personally, I'm risking my vote on Obama and praying he isn't Jimmy Carter II.

 

I'm not sure that's entirely accurate.

Sure, he's pro-life and owns guns, but he'll still vote for Pelosi to be Speaker of the House and on every other issue highlighted on his web page he's firmly against what the Republican Congress has done in recent years... from reforming the Rx drug benefit to help people rather than "big drug companies" to transparency in government to Iraq. See his issues here:

http://www.doncazayoux.org/dc_issues.html

I find it interesting that the first issue he highlights is education where he wants to increase teacher pay, supports after-school programs, and wants to make college more reachable for low-income students through government scholarships.

Still, his biggest break with the current brand of Republicanism is that he is a fiscal conservative.

And the most interesting news piece I've seen included this passage:

Republicans went from 83% to 46% in one election cycle and did so in a district that goes from Baton Rouge to Lake Ponchartrain. That's an amazing dive and in now way solely attributable to a "Conservative" Dem.

 

This is a badly-written piece, but the point is good.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=C0B95F78-3048-5C12-006B293F1E50650E

GOP loss could threaten leadership
By: Patrick O'Connor


The dark clouds hovering over House Republicans hold one silver lining for Minority Leader John A. Boehner, GOP Whip Roy Blunt and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole: Expectations for November are now set so low that a loss of fewer than 10 seats could be seen as a sort of victory.

But if Republican losses break into the double digits, the three leaders could find it hard to hold on to their jobs, and rank and file members could throw their support behind a new generation of members — reformers who say their party should be making dramatic changes to prove to voters that it has learned the lessons that cost it the majority in 2006.

These newer members lack the votes now to overcome the wishes of more entrenched members of the Republican caucus. But a GOP bloodbath in November could change everything.

Among the young guns who could pick up the pieces:

Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor

The chief deputy whip passed on a chance in 2006 to challenge Blunt. Ever since, Republicans have seen him as the next lawmaker to lead their party. The question: Would he challenge Blunt or go all the way by taking on Boehner?

The answer probably depends on the outcome in November. Boehner’s support has wavered at times, but he remains the most powerful voice among Republicans in the House. On the other hand, Cantor might feel loyalty to Blunt because he elevated Cantor to the leadership, and their staffs remain closely aligned.

However, some of Cantor’s leadership colleagues saw in Cantor’s decision to sign a recent letter calling for a unilateral GOP earmark moratorium a symbolic betrayal and a sign that he was cozying up with conservatives to ensure their support in an internal fight.

Whatever his eventual decision, Cantor has done everything in his power to improve his stock over the years, raising prolific sums for GOP candidates — including $2 million in pledges for presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain — and increasing his profile among members and the media, frequently attending leadership press briefings and holding an annual dinner with congressional reporters.

Cantor has also contributed heavily to Republican candidates in special elections and other open seats.

Given the number of retirements, this group could be a powerful voting bloc on its own, provided the GOP retains the bulk of these seats.

Cantor’s job also gives him unrivaled access to colleagues from all parts of the party. He has even asked the notoriously independent Texas Rep. Ron Paul to back, or oppose, bills when Republicans have needed every vote they can get. This gives Cantor an established history with other members — as well as their cell phone numbers in case he mounts a race.




Florida Rep. Adam Putnam

The 33-year-old chairman of the Republican Conference became the youngest member of the elected leadership when he edged out three colleagues for the often-thankless post after the last election.

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) at one point tapped Putnam to serve as his eyes and ears for rank-and-file members, and the Florida Republican inherited his top staff from the longest-serving GOP speaker in House history.

Putnam’s fundraising has improved, but his youth makes him an unlikely choice to lead the party. His outspoken criticism of past Republican abuses has also raised the occasional eyebrow.

Putnam can be impatient at times, but he is also stuck in the middle of a growing rift between agitators who believe partisan floor fights are the only way to regain the majority and those who think the party needs to offer substantive policy alternatives and wait for the Democrats to unravel on their own.

Putnam has become a very influential voice at the leadership table and seems to understand divides in the party as well as anyone.

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan

The affable former congressional aide has no designs on a leadership post and declined the chance to challenge a close ally, Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), for the top Republican spot on the powerful Ways and Means Committee next year.

But the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee has become the go-to wonk for the GOP message machine on federal spending and entitlement reform. His outspoken conservative views have occasionally put him at odds with his leaders over budget process reform and earmarks. But he never talks out of school — he’s always careful not to leak details of closed-door meetings — making him a trustworthy ally for Republican colleagues.

He could be the policy voice if Democrats tackle health care reform, a tax overhaul or anything else that has an impact on the federal government’s bottom line.

California Rep. Kevin O. McCarthy

The protégé of former Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, whose seat he now inhabits, McCarthy could make a run to replace Cole as chairman of the NRCC if Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, who fell short of beating Cole in 2006, declines to run for that post.

While just a freshman, McCarthy has impressed members with his ability to raise money and his studied appreciation of their districts — he reads The Almanac of American Politics during his cross-country flights to and from his Bakersfield district and has gotten his hands dirty with election reform from a junior post on the Administration Committee.

 

How did the demographics of that district change post-Katrina? Heavy influx of dem voters?

 

i think this depends on what your reason for what voters are dissatisfied about. if its iraq, i don't know what republican they could have run the because the party line is still for staying in the war.

 

its not just this district, also, you do realize there was an election post Katrina once before right?

 

McCain has toed a hard line on the War, which starts him off with 70% of the country against him on that. Then he refuses to work with conservatives, some of which will stay home or vote third party. McCain cannot win this election on his own merit. Obama would have to lose it, and he's certainly capable of that.

 

That district demographically is very Republican. Mostly affluent, and the largest industries are energy and chemicals. It's probably a one-term anti-Bush, anti-McCain loss, but it's still one that should have been in the bag.

 

The 2006 elections were over a year after Katrina hit. In that election, a Republican won the district with 83% of the vote.

So you're saying an influx of people affected by Katrina had no effect in 2006 but suddenly in 2008 the Republican total drops by almost 40% because of them?

Wow. Another example of Obama's vaunted ground game I guess. I can't think of any other reason people would vote against a Republican in 2008.

 

Jorge you are suffering through a bad case of PWNDPOCAPLYSE NOW on the BBS as of late, making horrific arguments then losing your composure and getting dressed down by mods after tattling - I think it may be time for a few weeks of quiet reflection.

 

Bingo!!!

McCain is pinned between a rock and a hard place. Too much "Straight Talk Express" will win people like me but alienate "the base". Pandering a lot to the right-wing will motivate the "the base" but would kill his support among independents.

For Obama, I've got to trust him with a heavily Dem congress, which gives me chills. The guy has to show me he wouldn't allow the kooks to push the country into the "left ditch". I really want to believe in him but I'm definitely not sold as of now.

Bottom line: This election is all about Obama. For millions of voters (like myself), McCain is a safe fallback position if Obama doesn't pass the sniff test. Of course, if McCain gets too incendiary, I will fall back to voting for neither.

 

The key to this election will be educating the voting public that a hasty pull-out of Iraq has serious consequences with the stability of the Middle East and America's foreign policy position in the world. The thought of an unstable Middle East, Iran's desire to wipe Israel off the map, Iran's desire to obtain nukes, and a base of operations for Al Qaeda does not appeal to me. We need a FRANK discussion of the consequences to a pull-out. McCain's credibility on Iraq (denouncing Rumsfeld for years, and advocating the counter-insurgency approach (surge) that worked) is strong. Obama does not have foreign policy credibility or experience. I believe McCain wins the argument with the voters and this dramatically changes the discussion. McCain debating Obama on Iraq is a sight I welcome with open arms. Obama will be humiliated.

 

Me too. Let's hope our wish comes true...

 

Obama is not suggesting a hasty pull out.

W did suggest a careless charge in.

Bummer.

 

Obama gave a Veteran's Affairs talk today in WV...