This article reflects my gut feeling of what would happen to Hezbollah's standing in Lebanon after the war. The story isn't over yet by far. Looks like both sides have serious regrets, which is about the only positive thing about the whole mess. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20286580-2703,00.html Stunning sight of militant mea culpa COMMENT Abraham Rabinovich, Jerusalem August 29, 2006 DESPITE the inclination in Israel to accept the verdict of the Muslim world that Hezbollah came out on top in the recent war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in his stunning interview yesterday, in effect handed the victory to Israel. In acknowledging that he had erred in estimating the likely Israeli reaction and that he had not foreseen the devastating consequences for Lebanon, he asserted that Israel's deterrent power had not been eroded by the war, but enhanced. It has been widely mooted in the Muslim world, and to a large extent in Israel itself, that Israel's inability to stop Hezbollah's rocket fire into northern Israel in a month of warfare - and its failure to complete the capture of southern Lebanon - had shattered the image of the Israeli army as virtually invincible and exposed it as vulnerable to militants. The thrust of Nasrallah's remarks, however, was that the punishment inflicted by Israel had been too great a price for Hezbollah and Lebanon to bear. "There has not been a war like this in the history of wars," he said, a view that reflected his stunned appearance in a taped interview in a Beirut bunker at the war's beginning after Israeli warplanes had begun to level an entire Hezbollah neighbourhood above his head. In contrast with the aggressive way in which he spoke of Israel in the past, Nasrallah's tone during this interview was markedly restrained. Gone was the taunting nature of his famous speech several years ago in which he said Israel was a cobweb that would be swept away by the first strong wind. He had demonstrated this dismissiveness by authorising periodic cross-border raids and recurring rocket attacks on Israeli army positions along the border in the six years since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. In saying now that he would not have carried out last month's raid in which two Israeli soldiers were captured if he had known the consequences, he was clearly implying he would not do something like that in the future - for fear of similar consequences. That is deterrence, something Israel had lost against Hezbollah in recent years. Nasrallah's remarks apparently reflect a growing reassessment within Lebanon of the war's balance sheet as south Lebanon residents return to mauled villages that Hezbollah had turned into military strong points and that were pummelled by Israel in the fighting. Hezbollah has not reacted thus far to the killing of a dozen of its fighters by Israeli soldiers since the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah's lack of response on the ground can be seen as reflecting the reduced legitimacy it now has in Lebanon in the wake of the war's devastation and its reluctance, at least for now, to revive hostilities. More than 1300 Lebanese were killed in the war, mostly civilians. Hezbollah has admitted to the deaths of a few score of its fighters but Israel says that up to 800 Hezbollah fighters were killed. Israel says it has the names of 430 dead fighters, presumably taken from identity cards. Israel itself has lost about 160 soldiers and civilians. The piles of war-related rubble are also higher in Lebanon. However, it is not the statistics of death and destruction that determine who won the war, if there be a winner, but perception, particularly the perception of the man who inadvertently started it.
Nasrallah is a pragmatist, he's often very honest in his assessment and isn't afraid to speak his mind. As I said at the beginning of the conflict, it's clear that Hezbollah miscalculated in carrying out the kidnapping of those soldiers, which was more or less based on prior instances. In return, Israel miscalculated in its response. It was an ill-conceived and costly conflict for both sides...
I can see why this guy is so popular over there. He already got most of lebonese on his side after the war, now with this he shows willingness to take responsibilites. I suspect he will only get more support among Lebonese by doing this interview.
i have another theory. nasrallah knew israel would invade. perhaps not to this degree but some escalation was bound to happen given what israel did in gaza a few weeks earlier after a idf kidnapping. of course nasrallah can't state i knew i would win this war and become more credible if we organized the kidnapping. so by taking 'responsibility' he seems way more sensible and not as malicious. i dont know if im right. but it wouldn't shock me.
This is exactly why I think Israel won...it wanted to stop them from doing it again. Mission accomplished. DD
well . . i think someone stated about Truman was that he did not understand . . sometimes the Threat of the BIG STICK was better than using it. I think the INVINCIBILITY cloak they had . . . showed a little and while they may have won the battle it maybe they lose the WAR Rocket River
The Israeli military is still dominant. It just means other countries will shift some emphasis on guerilla tactics instead of conventional fighting.
Israel "won" in that sense but they lost a lot also. Olmert's political career will end very soon because of these losses. I still can't believe they invaded Lebanon with such poor planning and preparation. The confidence of Israeli reservists in their military leadership has been completey shattered.
Hezbollah kidnap soldiers = miscalculation. Israel invade country + anihilate progress of country + destroy all hospitals in the south + destroy the orphanages + roads to airport (trapping lebanese and non-lebanese alike) = miscalculation?
Its quite clear from all accounts that Israel and the US had been planning full scale war against Hezbollah for some time and was looking for any slight provocation as a pretext to launch the war to once and for all destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is still standing and its stature may even be enhanced with Lebanon. Therefore the misssion can hardly be said to be accomplished.
This goes to show that Israel's "unproportional response" was the right one. If they kidnap two of yours, you don't trade them some of theirs and call it even. That only encourages them to do the same thing again. You must make it so costly to take action against you that they never want to do it again. It sounds like Nasrallah has gotten the message loud and clear. Now, it would be better for Israel to have a more competent leader than Olmert (maybe bring back Netanyahu), so they could more efficiently conduct any future operations. Terrorism must not be tolerated. If they crash planes into your buildings, you go to where they are and annihilate them. If they raid your country and murder and kidnap your soldiers, you go to their strongholds and pound them to dust.
Again, this was not why Israel undertook this action and it is merely spin to say so. The war was never really about the raid. It was merely a pretext to wage full scale war to eliminate Hezbollah and Israel lost. It is true that had Hezbollah known that Israel would have used this as an excuse for them to wage full scale war on Hezbollah and Lebanon that they would have done things differently. That's hardly surprising but hardly justifies Israeli actions in hindsight. And AFAIK, the soldiers are still in Hezbollah's custody and are still only going to be returned in exchange for prisoners so Israel is going to have to negotiate their return anyway.
If Hizballah never attacks Israel again, then they have in effect eliminated Hizballah, as far as they are concerned. Hard to call that a loss IMO. The cost on the Hizballah side is much higher now than it would have been to simply negotiate the exchange though. While the may negotiate to get these soldiers back, now there should be less chance for them to need to neotiate in the future. Hizballah drastically underestimated the resolve of the Israelis, and they payed dearly for doing so.
Maybe we can agree both Hezbollah and Israel have serious regrets about what happened. Israel "won" by temporarily stopping Hezbollah's ability to create havoc but clearly they lost by their very poor planning and execution. Hezbollah "won" by showing they could withstand Israel's fierce onslaught but the destruction they caused in Lebanon is unforgiveable. If anybody insists Israel won this war just because Hezbollah is temporarily disabled, I completely disagree. Their "mission" was to permanently crush Hezbollah and they failed miserably. The mission was NOT accomplished.
