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A look at how reducing PT can help longevity[indirectly related to Yao]

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by meh, Sep 24, 2010.

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  1. meh

    meh Member

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    [Lock if posted already]

    This is a nice article. It focuses on Duncan in particular, as well as some other NBA players in the past. But it definitely could help explain how the Rockets are treating Yao.

    Since it's a tl;dr type article for most, a few bullets from the article.

    1. Duncan averaged 39mpg until he was 26. Then the Spurs began to decrease his minutes. Down to 31mpg and sitting out a bit. However, he raises that to 37mpg in the playoffs, indicating why the Spurs might have "surprised" people in the past few years.

    2. His methodology may not be the most comprehensive, but I don't really see much wrong with it. You can read "The Method" part of the article to see the results.

    3. He adovacates that players with minutes reduced play more "high leverage" minutes. Minutes that matter more. Also he has a comeback probability model. Something which Morey may also have worked out to tell Adelman when a deficit or lead is so big Yao should just take a rest instead of playing.

    Overall, it seems to be similar to what Morey has been saying about Yao. And that if the Spurs were any indication, it could lead to nice results. Kind of runs counter to the whole "sky is falling" mentality here on GARM with all the Yao related threads lately.

    http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010...rs-stats-reduced-minute-impact-nba-longevity/
     
    #1 meh, Sep 24, 2010
  2. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.The Spurs started decreasing TD's mins even when he was completely healthy. We, on the other hand, had posters encouraging RA to play Yao Ming 38 mins a game last season even in blowouts, on the argument that a few more mins a game don't really matter. Just because we wised up 3 surgeries later doesn't mean we'll have the same results as what the Spurs had with TD. Good find though.
     
    #2 roslolian, Sep 24, 2010
  3. TheFreak

    TheFreak Member

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    I don't think the Spurs have surprised anyone the last few years. In fact it would have been pretty frustrating being a fan of theirs the last couple of years, IMO. Basically throwing away games for no reward. When the Rockets won at SA last year Popovich had his starters on the bench so long that when they finally came back in they were so out of the flow of the game that it was too late and the Rockets ran away with it.
     
    #3 TheFreak, Sep 24, 2010
  4. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    I think the Spurs have surprised only because so many people are waiting for them to take a fall and they haven't yet. To people who know them better, they're not surprising.


    PS could you explain the context of the Adelman quote in your sig?
     
    #4 napalm06, Sep 24, 2010
  5. TheFreak

    TheFreak Member

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    Go watch Hoosiers :)
     
    #5 TheFreak, Sep 25, 2010
  6. meh

    meh Member

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    What you're saying applies to extent of the benefit that comes with playing Yao less. Not the validity of it. So while the marginal benefit may be less, at least it is something that we can do to allow Yao to be effective in the playoffs.

    I guess what I'm saying is that it's better than nothing. That perhaps it's not as the pessimistic among us feels that "Yao getting injured is a matter of when and not if" type of thing.
     
    #6 meh, Sep 25, 2010
  7. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    ...similarly this is something the Lakers(though I hate them) should consider with Bynum.
     
    #7 glimmertwins, Sep 25, 2010
  8. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Member

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    But Yao was already playing the same minutes as Duncan and still got injured.

    Yao played 33.6 minutes vs Duncan's reduced 33.6 minutes in 2008-09.
    You can bet the Spurs aren't going to reduce Duncan to 24 minutes and keeping him out of the 20 back to back games.
     
    #8 BetterThanEver, Sep 25, 2010
  9. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    duncan isnt coming off of major surgery either.
     
    #9 smoothie, Sep 25, 2010
  10. nolimitation

    nolimitation Member

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    But how many minutes were Yao playing before 08-09 during the regular season? Didn't JVG run him to the ground during the regular season on meaningless games?
     
    #10 nolimitation, Sep 25, 2010
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