Down with the Kerry haters Outside the Bush-Arnold rally in Ohio, Republicans railed at demonstrators with apocalyptic fury. - - - - - - - - - - - - By Michelle Goldberg Oct. 30, 2004 | COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Lisa Dupler, a 33-year-old from Columbus, held up a rainbow-striped John Kerry sign outside the Nationwide Arena on Friday, as Republicans streamed out after being rallied by George W. Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger. A thickset woman with very short, dark hair, Dupler was silent and barely flinched as people passing her hissed "f*****" into her ear. An old lady looked at her and said, "You people are sick!" A kid who looked to be about 10 or 11 affected a limp wrist and mincing voice and said, "Oh, I'm gay." Rather than restraining him, his squat mother guffawed and then turned to Dupler and sneered, "Why don't you go marry your girlfriend?" Encouraged, her son yelled, "We don't want faggots in the White House!" The throngs of Republicans were pumped after seeing the president and the action hero. But there was an angry edge to their elation. They shrieked at the dozen or so protesters standing on the concrete plaza outside the auditorium. "Kerry's a terrorist!" yelled a stocky kid in baggy jeans and braces. "Communists for Kerry! Go back to Russia," someone else screamed. Many of them took up the chant "Kerry sucks"; old women and teenage boys shouting with equal ferocity. With four days to go until the election, you can feel the temperature rising in Ohio. Among Democrats, it's easy to indulge the fantasy that all the rage in this election is directed one way -- at Bush. Thousands of progressives are campaigning here, going door-to-door to get out the vote, training to watch the polls, holding concerts and rallies and anything else they can think of to beat Bush. Hundreds are from other parts of the country but most are locals. Jess Good, Ohio director of the massive get-out-the-vote group America Coming Together, says that 93 percent of the 12,000 volunteers expected to work on Election Day are from Ohio itself. Clearly, something exciting and unprecedented is happening. After reviewing Democratic and progressive field operations in Ohio and Florida, L.A. Weekly columnist Harold Meyerson wrote, "I have found something I've never before seen in my 36 or so years as a progressive activist and later as a journalist: an effective, fully functioning American left." Friday's Republican rally, though, was evidence that many on the right are as fervid and galvanized as their opponents. Pollster John Zogby has called this the "apocalypse election" because people on both sides believe the world will end if their candidate loses. He's right -- the Republicans I met at the Ohio rally spoke in language almost identical to that of the most addled Bush-hater, although often several steps further removed from reality. Dave, a 54-year-old electronic technician, said that if Kerry wins, "I'm going to leave the country and go to a Third World nation and start a ranch." His wife, Jenny, laughed and accused him of hyperbole, but he insisted he's been studying Portuguese, the language of Brazil, "so we'll have an escape route." Sitting near him was Greg Swalley, a blond electrical contractor. "I think Kerry is the anti-Christ," he said, only half-joking. "He scares me." We were sitting outside the Nationwide Arena watching the adoring crowd on a massive elevated monitor. Swalley and the others had tickets and I had press credentials. But by the time we arrived, 40 minutes before the rally was scheduled to start, security had closed off the area and no more people were being let in. So dozens waited outside and watched their heroes on the screen. The monitor showed a huge W. and then the words, "Let's Roll." When Bush, his wife and Schwarzenegger appeared, wild cheering echoed outside the building. Inside, Schwarzenegger tried to strike a sunny, moderate note. "There is optimism in Ohio," he said. "There is optimism all over the country because President Bush is leading the way. He's fighting for all of us. "President Bush knows you can't reason with people that are blinded by hate," Schwarzenegger said. "But let me tell you something: Their hate is no match for our decency, their hate is no match for America's decency, and it is no match for the leadership and the resolve of George W. Bush." Outside, though, I didn't see much American decency among Bush's followers. The conservative movement has long been fueled by anger and resentment. But here the negativity was at an especially high pitch, perhaps because some were starting to realize they might lose -- and that seemed like the end of the world. Looking at the small knot of protesters, many of whom were chanting, "Four more days," 22-year-old Nick Karnes, wearing a knit ski cap and baggy jeans, yelled, "Shut up!" Then he turned to his friend and said, "We can take 'em." "I'm definitely gonna vote for him," Karnes said of Bush. "Because he's been the president for four years and nothing bad has happened since Sept. 11. He's kept me alive for four years." If Kerry becomes president, he said, "We'll be dead within a year." Karnes told me that most of his friends are voting for Bush, too, but a couple are voting for Kerry. "I'm not speaking to them right now," he said. When the crowd came pouring out of the arena, the vitriol only increased. One clean-cut man, holding his son by the hand, yelled "coward!" at one of the protesters. I asked him what made him say that, and he said, "Because he's demeaning our troops by saying they are fighting a lost cause." "Jesus! Jesus!" screamed 26-year-old Joe Robles, pointing to his Bush-Cheney sign. "The man stands for God," he said of the president. "We want somebody who stands for Jesus. I always vote my Christian morals." Robles, a student at Ohio State University, told me that Kerry's daughter is a lesbian. I said I thought that was Dick Cheney's daughter, but he shook his head no with confidence. Robles said that Kerry would make it illegal for preachers to say that marriage should only be between a man and a woman. In California, he informed me gravely, such preaching has been deemed a hate crime, and pastors who indulge in it are fined $25,000, which "goes to lesbians." A few of the protesters, meanwhile, were red-faced from yelling at their antagonists about homophobia and budget deficits and a senseless war. Republicans were incensed. A blond woman dragged her young redheaded son toward the protesters, pointed to them, and said, "These are the Democrats," speaking as if she was revealing an awful reality that he was finally old enough to face. As she walked away with a group of other mothers and children, she was so angry she could barely speak. A friend consoled her by promising her that Bush would win. After all, she pointed out, "Look how many more Bush supporters there were on the street!" That calmed the angry blond woman down a little. But she was still mad. "We," she said, stammering and gesturing contemptuously at the demonstrators, "we are the way it should be!" http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/30/haters/
Unprecedented polarization. I wish global warming, or the Earth's magnetic field, were the subject. Keep D&D Civil!!
Another campaign "snapshot"... good lord, it's close. White House Race a Dead Heat - Reuters Poll Sun Oct 31, 2004 05:57 PM ET By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry are tied nationwide in a tense race for the White House, but Kerry leads in six of 10 battleground states, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Sunday. Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 46 percent on Saturday. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scoured about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday. "Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said. "Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles." Kerry leads in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Bush leads in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, according to the Reuters/Zogby state polls. The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage. Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest leads in any state were Kerry's seven-point advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the national poll, Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent of likely voters and a negative rating from 53 percent. The Massachusetts senator had a 51 percent to 41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll. The national poll of 1,207 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will end Monday. The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent. The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Thursday through Sunday. The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 48 percent to 47 percent; Florida, Kerry 48 percent to 47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent; New Mexico, tied 49 percent to 49 percent; Nevada, Bush 50 percent to 44 percent; Ohio, Bush 48 percent to 44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50 percent to 45 percent, and Wisconsin, Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent. Looking at this poll, I have to give the edge to Kerry. Of course, from my perspective, that's great. I would be a bit more relaxed (putting it mildly!) if it weren't this close, but I think things are trending Kerry's way. Keep D&D Civil!!
I had both groups knocking on my door today in Columbus, Ohio. The republicans came early (noon time) and I told them I didn't want to waste their time and told them they had my vote but to go convince someone else. About 3pm today a couple ladies came to my door (despite the fact I hade Bush/Cheney signs in 2 windows). i did my role as a good republican and invited them in and debated them for an hour and 15 minutes. Not amore diplomatic thing I could do for the Bush/Cheney campaign than to waste their time. But Columbus and Ohio is ground zero. kerry has a strong hold on NE Ohio (old industrial part of teh state) but evverywhere else is Bush by 3-4%. I got a little worried this morning when the Cols Dispatch came out with a poll that had it a dead heat (50/50). Just one little problem 38.5% of their 2880 responses was from NE Ohio, and more women (53%) were polled than men (both favors kerry). But interesting statistics from the poll: Party: 92% of democrats back Kerry, and 94% of republicans back Bush. Education: Kerry has the edge on those with post-graduate degrees (53%) and some high school or less (67%), Bush leads with college grads (53%) and a dead heat with some colle and high school grads with no college. Age: kerry leads people under 34 (53-55%) and people over 75 (55%) and 45-54 (51%). Other ages favor Bush (51-56%) Sex: 53% of males support Bush, 53% of females support Kerry. Race: Bush carries the whites (53%), Kerry has a large advantage of Blacks (91%) and Other (70%). Religion: Bush carries Protstants (58%), Kerry takes Catholics (51%), Jewish (79%) and None (74%) Income: kerry takes under $30k (59%) and 40-50k (55%). Bush takes 30-40k (52%), and all classes above $50k (51%-60%) Region: Kerry takes NE Ohio (59%) and NW Ohio (51%), Bush carries Central (54%), SW (59%), SE (53%) and West (58%)
Wow, 4chuckie, you really are at "ground zero!" Here in Austin, I see a few local political ads, and some on CNN, and the like, but you must be getting flooded with ads from all sides! I'm sure you will find this nuts, but I kind of envy you. There is a tremendous disconnect taking place between non-battleground, and battleground states. I think, in a way, that it would be good for the rest of the country to experience what those Americans like you are, in order to see just what kind of deluge the campaigns are unleashing on the American public. I found your demographics very intriguing, btw. I'm in some of the groups that your numbers say favor Kerry, and some that favor Bush. Keep D&D Civil!!
Polls are so 20th century. The online futures markets have been proven to have less margin of error. Check out tradesports dot com for a more accurate view than what some poll can tell you. Zogby probably isn't the best poll of the bunch, either. Realclearpolitics has all the polls to compare with.
Zogby isn't the worst, either. We'll find out, soon enough, just how accurate they all are. One thing I have heard frequently on the cable news channels is that this is considered the most difficult Presidential race to call that any of them can remember. Perhaps the most difficult ever. One of the polls will get it right, probably, and then we'll have to hear for 4 years how great their polling is, when it was probably shear luck. "Polls are so 20th century??" Hee, hee. I think they will be an ever bigger pest in the 21st. Tom Delay's company couldn't kill these things! My fear is that polling will become so accurate and pervasive, that they will "push" the country in whatever direction those who pay for them want, either by the polling numbers themselves or, more likely, how those who purchase them use them in ever more sophisticated ways. edit: I wanted to thank 4chuckie for just being engaged in the political process. I think that taking the time to debate the candidates and issues with those 2 ladies was an outstanding thing to do. Kudos, 4chuckie, whatever your reasons were! Keep D&D Civil!!
I'll tell you it's been interesting. All the ads were a pain, just for the fact of the last month about every 3rd ad on TV and every 4th on radio was political (I could be off but that's my math) so that pretty old just with the frequency. But as far as an education it would be hard to be undecided in Ohio right now. Candidates were virtually in the state everday (just found out Bush is flying into Cincinnati tonight or tomorrow night and they passed out 65,000 for the Reds ballpark to hear him speak). But I've seen and heard it all for the last month. I do a lot of pickup and drop offs this time of the year (non tax season so have more time to visit clients do year end planning, etc) and I got "trapped" for about an hour by a client who owns a fudge house about 3 weeks ago. Edwards was in town that day and a Union leader had stopped by to drop off stage passes for the rally and signs for the business (they had donated chocolates for the traveling party). At the same time a couple other friends of the owner came in and one lady was saying her son was flying jets in Iraq and how "noone" liked Bush in the military. So in that situation I can't be too aggressive just because I don't want to lose a client but I just made a couple comments: 1. To the Union member who was upset about losing jobs (Ohio has lost a lot of mfg. jobs) I simply asked how Kerry would fix the problem. His response was he would eliminate the tax breaks Bush created for outsouring jobs. I handed him my card and said "If you can find one tax break Bush created for outsourcing, give me a call and I'll vote for Kerry". Again I respect the guy and he was saying what he was told that Bush created incentives for outsourcing. But the fact is Bush did not create a tax break for outsourcing jobs. 2. To the mother I said if the military didn't beleive in Bush that the election was over and Kerry had won. She must have been devastated to hear 80% are still voting for W. But if you are active politically it's a great place to be right now. A friend was working today for the RNC and they literally had a dozen people from outside of Ohio fly in on their own dime to go door to door today in Columbus. They had tons working the phones. I'm sure the liberals did as well, but right now Ohio seems to be grond zero. PA is going to Kerry, and IF Bush can win Florida and Ohio he'll just need one or two small states. Florida and Ohio seem to be toss ups, but like I've been saying I have no doubt that Ohio will be close but all the polls look like Bush at least from my point of view. So it may come down to Florida again? I think kerry has to have Florida and Bush either needs Florida or needs to prolly steal about all the tossup states from Kerry and get Hawaii.
Getting testy in Florida A Marine Corps vet tells some tales of confrontation from the front lines of the get-out-the-vote effort in Tampa. - - - - - - - - - - - - By Jim Jones Nov. 1, 2004 | I was out today with three postal workers and one teacher knocking on doors in the poorest sections of Tampa. Of course, they were predominantly black and Hispanic. While we were jumping in and out of the car, we had the Redskins- Packers game on and were cheering on the Packers. We've been out every day, seven days a week, getting out the vote. We have been identifying Kerry supporters to ask them to vote early and to provide transportation if needed. Since we've been going to previously identified union households the feedback is about 90 percent for Kerry. However, even considering that we are not getting a true cross-section of the voters, it's hard not to think that this area will go to Kerry. As the talking heads have been saying, it's all about getting the base out to the polls. Strange **** here in Florida. Some of our teams ran across some "young" groups of two and three with "generic" badges asking black households if they had absentee ballots and offering to "deliver" them to the polling office. It looks strongly like these are Republican teams out to destroy ballots. We had one of the IBEW retirees, age 73, get punched out while sitting in his car at a polling place while waiting to vote. He had Kerry stickers on his car and this 37-year-old ******* went over and attacked him. Well, the union hall sent over a "security team" of eight to "assist" voters and protect them from such assholes. I have a "Veteran for Kerry" sticker on my pickup's back window, right below my Marine Corps sticker. I've had two assholes yell **** at me when passing. One of them kept cutting me off on the freeway, giving me the finger. I had another confrontation with a fat coward who passed me on the sidewalk when I was walking from a house I had just worked. He said, "With that Kerry button on, I can see that you didn't serve in Vietnam." In so many words I corrected him by telling him that I went there twice as a Recon Marine. I then asked him, "What were you? A ****ing Army cook?" He then said some more, including a "**** you." I then yelled at him, "Come on back here you fat ****ing yellow b*stard and say that." He was about 6 foot and between 250 and 300 pounds. He got in his truck and took off. I chased him on foot just for show and to rub it in. We've had other teams experience similar treatment. One of the Insulators Union guys from New Jersey punched out some prick who mouthed off to him. There seems to be a pattern with these loudmouths. They'll yell something like, "commie," or "pacifist" but then flee when they find out you are neither, especially the latter. I'm getting too old to get into fistfights but, dammit, a fellow just can't allow such misconduct around himself. Anyway, we're out again tomorrow. I'm early voting in the morning. The early voting has been huge. There are typically two and three-hour waits to vote. Most of it is caused by the large number of voters and 6 constitutional amendments on the back of the ballot. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Semper Fi http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2004/11/01/florida_vote/
