There is a lot of talk about how when Yao and Tracy stay healthy, they're great. I'm sure someone has the numbers, but I believe that when they are on the court together, they win more than 70% of the time. That is certainly impressive, but what does it mean as far as winning in the playoffs? To me, it doesn't mean much because that success has come mostly against inferior competition...the kind you don't get to beat up on in the post season. So, here are the numbers against perennial Western Conference playoff teams from 2004-2008 when both Tracy and Yao are healthy. I used San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Los Angeles (Lakers), Denver, and Memphis. In hindsight, I could/should have used Sacramento (maybe instead of Memphis?) but like I said, this was a quick and dirty operation. 2004-2005: 14 wins, 14 losses 2005-2006: 2 wins, 6 losses 2006-2007: 4 wins, 5 losses 2007-2008: 7 wins, 10 losses I browsed the schedules fairly quickly, so I'm sure these numbers are not 100% accurate. That's just 27 wins in 62 games...or a .435 winning percentage. Simple math tells us that in order to win in the playoffs, you have to (at a minimum) win at a .571 clip (4 games out of every 7) against playoff teams if you want to win a series...and obviously if you want to win the whole thing. Against the teams they ultimately have to beat, I'm not sure the Tracy/Yao combo is really all it's cracked up to be when people throw their overall winning % around. If someone has the time and patience to find the exact numbers against playoff teams (from each individual year) that would be great.
I think this combo is good enough to get out the first round if fully healthy playing the jazz and thats it
I think we have to get rid of one of them. I would rather keep T-mac for obvious reasons. If we could trade Yao straight up for Amare or Dirk I'll do it.
But then again, you have look at it subjectively. The numbers are what they are, but look at this Rockets team NOW. We have a great 1-2 punch in Scola + Landry. The yesteryears of Clarence Weatherspoon, Juwan Howard, Oakley on 10 day contracts is no more. Yao + T-Mac + Rookie of the Year candidate Scola + The MAN that is Carl Lanry = Winning Rockets basketball for years to come. Regular season, anyway. Who knows come playoff time.
I believe that. The Rockets have proven over the last couple years to be the best 2nd tier team in the game. I'm really hoping the duo adopts RA's system and we get some better talent around the two in order to win. Some things holding the two back from being 'great' together besides overall health: Tmac: inconsistant outside shot, bad shot selection, plays d part-time, motivated (so it seems) part-time, can't shoot free throws Yao: not mobile enough, can't get the foul calls he deserves, hesitant with the ball, not assertive enough, struggles against more mobile/quick players (bolded what I think are the biggest flaws working against the duo) I think Yao and Tmac are great talents. However, their flaws, without more help and inability to run a system (1-on-1 bball against the new defensive rules), will always keep this team as 2nd tier.
But, for a complete understanding, did either McGrady or Yao miss one of these games that you listed?
Well they're not an overwhelmingly dominant duo. I'm no hater, but even before I saw these stats I felt as though we were missing something. Something like...a rock-solid, dependable shooter. Someone who could spot up and drain the three and also hit the mid-range jump shot. Compared to other elite teams, the Rockets rarely go for the mid-range shot. We have a plethora of scrappy, hard-nosed guys who hustle, and that's great, but it would be nice to have SOLID scoring options besides Yao and Tracy.
Plus, look how close the games have been this series. You add Yao into this mix, and I feel confident that the Rockets might be up 3-1 as opposed to down 1-3. So Yao + T-Mac is a good combo. ..since they have help now in Scola + Landry
The 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 teams (the ones with the Weatherspoons and the Howards) had better records against those playoff teams (.444) than did the 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 teams who only managed .423 against them. And thinking of it in your way, we don't have the 2004-2005 McGrady anymore...
So shall we rebuild or add more potent pieces? And how about this, we won 22 straight and finished as the 4th seed second year in a row. A trio of attack is the trend of the league lately. Again, outside Yao and Tmac, we dont have offensive gifted players, somebody like Josh Howard, Manu ... I think Tmac and Yao are just fine. Look at their individual stats, if not stellar for the super stars, still good all around allstar type of stats. The bad signings over Rudy.T's era carried over to affect us in the early JVG' era, and then the situation was compounded by JVG's emphasis on defense. Look at Utah, they've got pieces they wanted in relatively short period after stockon and Malone. A capable PG like Andre Miller, a solid wing like Magette can propel us to the next level. On the other hand, by trade, it's certain that we wont get fair value back for Tmac or Yao(I doubt Yao would be traded tough). By rebuilding, basically means we give up with Yao and Tmac, but mind you we finished as the 4th in the west this year.
Again, you're not taking into account the emergence of Landry + Scola. When Yao was healthy, Scola + Landry wasn't really contributing all that much. Landry emerged after Yao went down. Scola picked up his game, catapulting himself to a viable Rookie of the Year candidate. Furthermore, during the 22 game winning streak, BEFORE the injury, T-Mac was putting up monster numbers. Now he's playing on one shoulder and a bum knee. The key to this Rockets team, has always been, health. A healthy Rockets team can go places. We're just one piece away, now. (A 3rd scorer)
Thanks for looking this up. But think about it this way: What year did the Rockets have a healthy Yao/McGrady combo at the end of the year: 04-05: Both healthy, but Yao had yet to blossom as he would later 05-06: Both injured 06-07: Yao-Mac together, but Yao missed a huge chunk of time and clearly wasn't the same player he was prior to injury and would prove to be again this year 07-08: Yao out, McGrady hurting In my mind, we've never seen both guys at 100% or close to it at playoff time except 04-05, and again, Yao wasn't the player then that he is now. Maybe they'll both never be healthy together, but I think it deserves at least one more year to try.
I don't understand the confusion, but to clarify, every game of the 62 featured BOTH Tracy and Yao. There may be a mistake or two because I was moving quickly, but nothing significant.
They're not Shaq and Kobe, that's for sure. Too many of us expected that, IMO, including myself back in 2004 when we got McGrady. (wow 4 seasons really go by fast) They'll be great with lots of help, but the Yao and T-Mac with a half-ass supporting cast didn't pan out. We have a good enough supporting cast with them now to get them out of the first round.
Good point. 2010 is the year, when Tmac's and others contracts are expiring. Until then, let's give RA and this group one or two more years. Tmac is slowing down, but he is still only 28, and so is Yao. Our front court combo next year will be the key for us, especially how Scolar+Landry are going to play off of Yao. I feel they can do a lot of damage and uncontainable when Yao commands a lot of attention. This summer we need to address the following positions: Back-up center to relive Yao Point Guard Scoring Wing. If we can either by sigining FA or trading to get those pieces, we will be a serious contender next year.
There are things to take into account every season, but this isn't an in-depth analysis by Morey and his buddies. I was just skimming the Win/Loss columns. Next year we could be fine just getting Yao back in the mix, but I'm not convinced that the emergence of Scola and Landry (two guys that will see less minutes when Yao is back...especially if Deke retires) is going to be enough to put us deep into the playoffs. And yes, we need to go deep NOW. We're not in a position (age/health-wise) to advance round by round each year. I think we need another main piece, not just more one-dimensional role players (Hayes, Head, Novak, etc.). I'm foaming at the mouth for a Mike Miller, Corey Maggette, Ron Artest, or even Ben Gordon. We need guys who are experienced scorers and don't need someone to hold their hand on offense.
i think the tracy/yao combo is the best in the league....but we need more than 2 players....maybe a third semi all star to play pf. and of course our role players off the bench....to win a championship
