There exists two diametrically opposed views of what the Rockets should do over the 2003 summer. On one extreme is the view that the passage of time is all that is needed for the Rox to be successful. "Keep the team intact" and don't change coaching or personnel. Those of this mindset tend to satisfied with the recent 9th place finish and exhibit little to no level of frustration with the past season. The other extreme is the "blow the team up" opinion. Those of this mindset tend to emphasize the 45 win season, the numerically high draft picks, a relativley injury free 02-03, and a general feeling that the Rockets talent base lacks synergy and the management the ability to harness (mold) the existing talent. With that backdrop, I decided to observe the history of 9th place WC finishers over the past 10 seasons. Since I lack the skill to create a great graphic, I will provide the column heading and then then the data: Year.......9th......Following season...Net change 01-02......LAC......11th..............-3 00-01......HOU......11th..............-3 99-00......DAL......4th or 5th.......+5 98-99......SEA......7th..............+2 98-99......MINN.....6th..............+3 97-98......SAC......7th or 8th ......+2 96-97......SAC......9th.............. 0 95-96......GSW......10th..............-1 94-95......SAC......8th..............+1 93-94......LAL......5th..............+4 92-93......DEN......8th..............+1 Overall Summary On average, a 9th place WC finisher has the statistical probability of rising to #8 in the following season. Summary of two largest jumps: +4...93-94 & 94-95 Lakers Both lead by NVE, Vlade Divac, & Elden Campbell. Apart from the retirement of James Worthy and the trading of Doug Cristie to the Knicks for two future 2nds, the additions of Ced Ceballos (FA signing - from Suns for a 1st round pick) & Eddie Jones (draft) were the main drivers for the 9th to 5th jump. It is worth nothing the the 94-95 Lakers were coached by Del Harris who replaced Randy Pfund. (Technically, Magic coached the 93-94 Lakers at the end of the season but he did not take the job for 94-95). +5...99-00 & 00-01 Mavericks Both lead by Finley & Nowitski. 99-00 Mavs had major minutes played by Ced Ceballos and Erick Strickland. Ceballos and Strickland were replaced by Howard Eisley (aquired via trade with Utah) and Steve Nash (player improvement). Juwan Howard was also added to the 00-01 Mavs via a late season trade involving Chrisitian Laettner. Conclusion The two largest jumps in the 10 seasons of WC 9th place finshers were impacted by the all available methods - draft, trades, FA signings, individual player improvement and coaching changes. Historically, there is not a precedence for a large jump without a corresponding change of some sort. Regarding the 2003-2004 Rockets While I do not favor "blowing the team up", I can't justify remaining with a pat hand for 03-04. For 03-04, we don't have a 1st round pick, Les has expressed a concern for not going over the Luxury Tax thus probably excluding a FA signing, Rudy T's situation is presently unresolved and player improvement is of a very unknown commodity. IMHO, from a historical perspective in order to leap beyond 8th place the Rockets must do something and that something is a trade for Rice's expiring contract. And it will be or should be packaged with Cat and/or Griffin for the most "band for the buck". However, it is critical that the players returned in this trade must be of the overachiever variety since we will probably have to take on 1 moderately bad contract to balance Rice's. OK, nothing outrageously new but I was interested in the history of 9th place improvements and seeing if there was anything to the expression "no guts, no glory".
Interesting info, but I'm not so sure the next year is what we should be looking at, but possibly 2 and 3 years down the road. This also doesn't tell you what teams were on the way up (Rockets, clearly), down (Seattle), or going nowhere (usually the Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets, etc.). Also, what if a team was in say, 10th place, or 8th, or 7th, and made a significant jump the next year or a few years down the line. I would think that could be relevant as well.
Just something i spotted from gazing through your post GATER.. is that the Mavs and Lakers, which are high class teams, continually change the structure of the team to try to get it right.. if the mix didn't work they recruit a different player.. (side note: they probably didn't care too much about luxury tax though) Sticking with the mix that Houston have now.. would be nuts
The one move the Rockets really need is for Yao to turn into a dominant 25-12 center. If that happens, we will see a big change with this team. If he is still a 15-9 guy next year, we won't see a significant jump in the standings.
Since the two biggest jumps were by teams that didn't make major changes, we should make major changes?
What do you consider 'major changes"? I don't think trading Cat, Griff, Cato, Rice, Mooch or MoT would be a major change, only Francis or Yao. I don't think either of those two guys are going anywhere.
I don't think you followed the chart correctly. In the case of the 94-95 Lakers, they had a major FA signing, a Lottery draft pick and a coaching change. The 00-01 Mavs had player improvement and upgraded Ceballos and Strickland via preseason trades and even made a during the season trade for Juwan Howard. In season trades by playoff teams is seldom done. What part of this sounds like "they didn't make major changes" to you?
Freak - You are correct and I thought about the multiple season consequences as I was putting this together. Even though it doesn't look like much, there was a degree of effort in just a back to back season evaluation. If I get up some additional energy, I may try for a 3 year correlational "graph". One final comment. I tried to correlate upward movements but as Rockets fans we are all too familiar with what can trigger downward movement - injury.
This is damn right! Surely the MAJOR move for Dallas Mavs' jump that year was Dirk Nowitzki's development from a 17/6 player to a 22/10 player, no?
Gator:- Thank you for all that statistical work! I now know that for sure the Rockets must stop being so attached to Players. Loyalty should be given only to Players that play the Team Game.The Management and that includes Les CD and Rudy T must take on the mind set that you perform to our standards or we will get someone that does. They need to be more stingy about the tail end player contracts, no more Moochie, there are plenty of players available that are better and will play for much less! They must also stop bringing in the expensive has beens, they hinder team development. Gator I agree that we need to use our assets that are not fitting our future game plan to improve our team. The question I ask is what is our future 'Game Plan' are we going to develop the Center Big Mans Game or the 'Guard Oriented Team'or are we just not going to have a definite identity, like this last season ? Will we just evolve or will there be definite development goals that the Team will work towards? Questions that should be answered! Gator another problem with the Rockets Management in recent years is that the Coaching Department has become a school for wanabe Basketball Coaches, especially from the tape room, if you get my drift! We need to get experienced professional coaches as our assistants. We cant have the Larry Smith Saga happen again, it was a disaster! We need Coaches that are experienced enough to guide and assist Rudy through his weak spots- Defence and Offence. At present as I see it we have too many mediocre players that want to score and are not willing to play the team game in supporting roles. We need to condence two or three into one significant Defencive/Offencive Player and take on a couple of less expensive role players. We need to get us a Point Guard that knows how to pass and one that bases his success on that of the teams success not on his individual Stats. All of our new players must know the concept of Team Defence and Team Offence and ones who think US rather than ME.
Sometimes I think that Rudy's obsession to put a positive spin on EVERYTHING has some how blinded him to obvious problems. P.S. Kinda like the neurotic "sun-shine girl" interview on Grand Theft Auto: Vice City's "Chatter Box." Those of you familar with PS2/GTA:VC will know what I'm talking about.
