This is another interesting read, and of course who do they rank #1 & #2? Brewer and Gay. One more opinion that incidentally differs from that of our esteemed brain rust...errr... brain trust at Toyota Center. http://82games.com/nbadraft2006.htm partial extract of a long article: With the nitty-gritty mathematical process out of the way, I ran the success rates for around 100 draft prospects, which should cover almost every college player who will be picked. One other note, I adjusted the rates to account for draft position, since a first rounder would have a better chance than a second rounder. So without further delay, here are the players in the 2006 Draft Class with the best chance to be starting at the end of their rookie contract. 1. Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas % Chance to Start – 61.40% Was similar to: Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Michael Finley This draft isn’t as strong at the top as it has been in the last few years. But if any player is going to develop into an All-Star, it will most likely be Brewer. He has almost every factor going in his favor. He’s very athletic with an NBA body, so he can physically handle the league. On the court, he can pretty much do everything with the only question mark being the funky release on his shot. It probably cannot be corrected because it stems from a childhood accident, but it does go in with some regularity. From an intangibles perspective, there should be no questions as he’s had no off-the-court problems. Also, he’s been around the game his whole life, since his father, Ron Brewer was an eight year vet. 2. Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut % Chance to Start – 56.71% Was similar to: Jared Jeffries, DerMarr Johnson, Ron Artest Gay’s ceiling may not be as high scouts would like to believe. He has a lot of skills, but his defense seems to be ahead of his offense at this point. He is similar to Brewer in that he is versatile with a wide range of skills. However, Brewer’s success rate is higher because he holds a significant advantage in the areas of ball-handling and decision-making. Scouts have questioned his assertiveness, but it’s probably a result of unreasonable expectations more than anything. His stats and behavior don’t indicate that he will be number one player. But, he does have great tools, so that will allow him to stick and be very effective in a complimentary role.
Yeah, this has been posted before but it was mainly in regards to the Brewer/Carney debate. I hadn't remembered seeing Gay at #2. Now I'm even more saddened because if the deal with Memphis hadn't been in place, we could have gotten EITHER of those guys.
Note, though, that it isn't projecting him to be a star. Rather, he's projected to be a very good complimentary player. Well, that's what Battier is right now.
Gay will, perhaps, be the Shawn Kemp or HotRod Williams of this generation of basketballers-- without the illegitimate children, I hope! A couple of great years-- kind of Bell Curvish.
well I thought we didn't want gay because he might be a bust.. so if he's projected to be as good as battier, why give him up + swift for battier?
Everyone says that. Caron Butler said that. Who knows how these guys will come out in the end? Rudy Gay could be a fantastic SF, or he could be a cut-the-paycheck guy (the biggest concern among execs/experts). The Rockets mindset was they needed role players in their prime to take advantage of our T-Mac/Yao window, which may have been shortened by McGrady's back. They feel we don't have time to develop youngsters and we don't have time to mess around with guys with little passion or professionalism (a little more directed at Swift, but a possible concern with Gay). I'm surprised Roy wasn't #1 or 2. Evan
Gay doesn't play with anywhere near the fire that Artest does. That's the great unknown, and Rockets weren't sold on him changing. I really think they felt burned by stro and eddie and didn't want to risk it.
I don't think you guys should read into numbers like these too much. This is simply some algorithm derived % to start. As I understand it, it doesnt account for being a solid 6th man, starter on a terrible team, or superstar. By this % alone..... Battier - 100%, Swift - 0%, and Gay - 57% Thus, 0 + 57 < 100 and we got a steal..... P.S. I hate the trade simply because we didn't get fair value, not because Battier's bad.
